U.S. Predator Strikes in Pakistan

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 On the front page of today's Washington Post, Robin Wright and Joby Warrick report on the recent string of U.S. predator strikes in Pakistan targeting al Qaeda. One reason for the increased frequency of the strikes is U.S. government officials are concerned they will have less free reign with the election of the new parliament and the likelihood of President Musharraf playing a diminished role:

Musharraf, who controls the country's military forces, has long approved U.S. military strikes on his own. But senior officials in Pakistan's leading parties are now warning that such unilateral attacks -- including the Predator strikes launched from bases near Islamabad and Jacobabad in Pakistan -- could be curtailed. "We have always said that as for strikes, that is for Pakistani forces to do and for the Pakistani government to decide. . . . We do not envision a situation in which foreigners will enter Pakistan and chase targets," said Farhatullah Babar, a top spokesman for the Pakistan People's Party, whose leader, Yousaf Raza Gillani, is the new prime minister. "This war on terror is our war."

After speaking to some

After speaking to some residents of FATA, I have learned that everyone in FATA sees these drones going over their heads frequently; it's not like they are so high that the average person doesn't see them. And seeing these drones, rightly or wrongly, makes them hate the US. Why? Because 1) they feel this obvious presence of the US is making them a target of terrorists, 2) the US is watching their plight yet their plight goes on, and 3) due to the above many have been forced to leave their homes and jobs in FATA and have been forced to migrate within Pakistan and start their lives over again.

This worries me a bit. On

This worries me a bit. On the one hand, we have been monitoring some targets for a while, so maybe we're just losing some intel value by hitting them now instead of later. On the other hand, rushing strikes seems like it probably risk collateral damage while only taking out second stringers.

If we take shots with too many civilians around, we may hasten a negative reaction from the newly elected government.