War Crimes and Hypotheticals

Does anyone have a good sense of how likely something like this is? We were once treated to an off-the-record briefing with a former Member of Congress on the state of all things congressional; when a question about possible war crimes prosecutions arose, it went over like a lead balloon. Can you even imagine the firestorm of debate and soul-searching that would ensue if an American official was detained abroad on such charges?

My bet is that nobody gets

My bet is that nobody gets arrested abroad under the current President. The one exception would be if an official was directly tied to the ill-treatment of someone from the country in question.

That said, over the longer term it may just happen. Particularly if the new government didn't seem strongly averse to the idea in back channel discussion. Probably won't be done by the ICC unless they have a slam dunk though, the U.S. has ways of threatening the existence of international organization that don't involve war.

I'd also guess that if it does happen it will involve video-tape. There's reasons the CIA broke the law to destroy evidence after all. If the crime is bad enough, the consequences of the cover-up is by no means worse than the crime.

To end this on a less depressing note, who else is looking forward to Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay? The first movie was pretty funny if silly and vulgar. Comes out April 25th.