What will it take for Senator Kyl to support New START?

By John K. Warden

Speaking at the NDUF-NDIA Seminar Series, Senator Jon Kyl (R-Arizona) discussed the NPR and New START, outlining what it would take to get him to support the treaty.

On more than one occasion, Kyl said the NPR was not as bad as it could have been.  As he put it, in most areas, the NPR changes terminology, but maintains old doctrine and force structure.  The NPR supports:  a sizable deterred based on a nuclear triad; maintaining weapons on alert; continuing nuclear sharing with NATO allies; modernization of the U.S. nuclear infrastructure; and increases in missile defenses and conventional global strike.

In other areas, Kyl was critical.  He described the revised negative security assurance as “bad news,” arguing that it “muddled the waters,” making deterrence of biological attacks more difficult. 

However, he was more concerned with the NPR’s limitations on nuclear modernization, which he described as “alarming.”  According to Kyl, the NPR does not make an adequate commitment to life extension for the W-78.  He further argued that the formulation in the NPR that requires Presidential approval and Congressional authorization for replacement could “chill the labs,” preventing them from pursing the best possible options.

On New START, Kyl’s bottom line was that he is “not yet convinced that ratifying the treaty is in the best interest of the United States.” 

His main objection to the substance of the treaty is its limitation on missile defenses.  He argued that two parts of the treaty limit missile defense – the preamble and Article 5.

Recognizing that the preamble is nonbinding, Kyl argued that it would nonetheless constrain the President and missile defense.  As he put it, beyond recognizing a link between offensive and defensive systems – which is obvious – the language in the preamble is a foundation for Russian withdraw under the treaty’s supreme interest clause.  He said that because Obama values the treaty and won’t want to risk Russian withdrawal, the President will constrain U.S. deployments.

Second, Kyl is concerned with Article 5 of the treaty, which states that the United States cannot use converted ICBM silos or SLBM tubes for missile defense capabilities, grandfathering in current U.S. deployments at Vandenberg Air Force Base.  Kyl explained that similar deployments might be useful in the future.  However, he seemed more upset that U.S. negotiators were “disingenuous at best” when they said there would be no limit on missile defenses.

Kyl clearly supports a robust, unconstrained missile defense program, but, nevertheless, hinted that he might be willing to support ratification of New START if it is accompanied by a – in his view – satisfactory nuclear modernization commitment.  Nuclear modernization has long been a priority for Kyl, and he admitted that New START provides a political opportunity to lockdown funding.

However, don’t expect ratification any time soon.  The Senator made it clear that even though the current budget proposal is a step in the right direction, it doesn’t include the concrete commitment that he believes is required.  He said the Administration needs to be more detailed in laying out how the modernization program will work, or as he put it, adding “flesh to the skeleton.”

He hopes that those details will be forthcoming in the 1251 Report that the Administration is required to submit alongside New START and said that he would be looking to see that nuclear scientists are given adequate flexibility.

Beyond the proposal, Kyl said that Congress and the Administration would need to match words with actions.  He joked, “trust, but verify.”  As a result, Kyl said he would be unwilling to support ratification before the Democratic Congress passed a continuing resolution and omnibus bill that establish the commitment to modernization.

What constitutes an adequate nuclear modernization plan is not yet clear, but it will likely determine whether Senator Kyl – and a number a Republicans that trust his opinion on nuclear weapons issues – is willing to give his consent to New START.

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For more on Senator Kyl’s view on New START and modernization, see Peter Spiegel’s article in the Wall Street Journal.