When “Riding the Tiger” Meets Strained Resources: Four Scenarios

Outsights, an independent consultancy based in London, released a new report detailing four possible scenarios for the global economy up to the year 2030.  The scenarios were created by dividing the future with two axes.  The x axis represents the allocation of resources, ranging from “control” (top-down allocation) to “free market” (bottom-up allocation), and the y axis represents technological innovation, ranging from “stifled” to “rapid”.  These axes divide the future into four quadrants:

• “planned progress” (top-down allocation, rapid innovation),
• “riding the tiger” (bottom-up allocation, rapid innovation),
• “on hold” (bottom-up allocation, stifled innovation), and
• “life in the slow lane” (top-down allocation, stifled innovation).

While “riding the tiger” is the current trajectory, guided by innovation and free market principles, the authors suggest that any of the scenarios is possible over the coming decades.  Examining current trends and forthcoming challenges, the authors prognosticate how each of the scenarios would play out for the issues of sustainability, population, technology, political stability, and economics. Questions about resource allocation are central throughout; the authors assert that the impending struggle to cope with limited resources could compel us to abandon the current “riding the tiger” model for one of the other three, wherein governments control the allocation of resources or pessimism and conservatism subdue innovation. To view the full report, click here.