Zimbabwe Pre-Election Poll

A recent pre-election poll in Zimbabwe showed the challenger, Morgan Tsvangirai, with an 8 point lead going into today's election:

• Morgan Tsvangirai - 28.3%
• Robert Mugabe - 20.3%
• Simba Makoni - 8.6%

Approximately 40% of respondents would not reveal their choices, were undecided, or did not plan to vote. Another 2.9% preferred other minor candidates. One takeaway is the relatively low level of support for Simba Makoni makes it more likely one of the top two candidates will capture a majority, avoiding the need for a runoff election in three weeks. As we know, polls are uncertain predictors of election results in even the best circumstances. Given the large percentage of people wishing to keep their preferences secret, the possibility of vote rigging, and the inherent difficulty of polling a near failed state, it will be interesting to see how these numbers compare to the final results.