Does Okada's Letter Opposing TLAM/N Signal Changes in Japanese Foreign Policy?

Jan 26, 2010

By John K. Warden

A letter from Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reveals that the Japanese government does not oppose the retirement of the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile/Nuclear (TLAM/N).

Based on the findings of the Strategic Posture Review Commission, many have argued that maintaining TLAM/N is essential to the credibility of U.S. assurance to Japan.  The commission’s final report, which was released in May 2009, states:

One particularly important ally has argued to the Commission privately that the credibility of the U.S. extended deterrent depends on its specific capabilities...In Asia, extended deterrence relies heavily on the deployment of...TLAM/N...In our work as a Commission it has become clear to us that some U.S. allies in Asia would be very concerned by TLAM/N retirement.

Okada’s letter, which is dated December 24, 2009, seems to directly contradict the Commission’s findings:

Rewarding Reintegration--Reaching out to the Taliban

Jan 26, 2010

Mehlaqa Samdani

As the Pakistani military begins to wind down its military operation in South Waziristan, it has made clear it will not launch any more large-scale operations for another "six months to a year" in order "to consolidate the gains in the areas taken back from the militants" (such as Swat and South Waziristan) and to "ensure safety of the returnees". The announcement came during Secretary Gates' visit to Pakistan last week and appeared to rebuff U.S calls for an expanded military operation in North Waziristan.

Sri Lanka's Elections: Will They Bridge the Divide?

Jan 26, 2010

By Morgan Courtney

Today, Sri Lanka is holding its first elections following the May 2009 defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and the end of Sri Lanka’s 26-year civil war. These Presidential elections, between the current president and the army general who led the winning campaign against the Tamil Tigers, are likely to be very close. The result could serve to unite the country or divide it further, depending on who is elected and if that person will make efforts to build trust and increase political and civil participation among minorities, particularly Sri Lankan Tamils. Yesterday, a task force from Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs released a report analyzing what is at stake in the presidential and parliamentary elections (which must be held by May 2010) in terms of building peace, ensuring free and fair elections, and fostering a more inclusive political environment. The report also examines the likelihood of elections in the Palestinian Territories, and considers what is needed to create an environment conducive to elections.

Bridging the Divide? An Assessment of Elections in Sri Lanka and the Palestinian Territories is available here.

Flickr photo by Keith Bacongco used under a Creative Commons license.

Nuclear Policy News – January 26, 2010

Jan 26, 2010

FISSILE MATERIAL
Report says Al-Qaeda still aims to use weapons of mass destruction against U.S.
WP by Joby Warrick

A Failure to Imagine the Worst
Foreign Policy by Graham Allison

North Korea may be readying missile test - S.Korea TV
Reuters

Intelligence from Tehran Elevates Concern in the West
Der Spiegel by Dieter Bednarz, Erich Follath and Holger Stark

The Nuclear Ivory Tower?

Jan 25, 2010

By Chris Jones

During the Cold War, academia made significant contributions to nuclear policy. Scholars like Bernard Brodie helped create valuable theories to help navigate the unprecedented geopolitical terrain of a world with nuclear powers. Other academics like Henry Kissinger and Jim Schlesinger moved from the so-called ivory tower to take high level national security positions responsible for crafting U.S. nuclear policy in this tumultuous time. Professor Michael Desch explains

Brodie, Wohlstetter and Kaufmann played central roles in shaping how the Pentagon understood the implications of the advent of nuclear weapons upon warfare . . . While the Pentagon did not always embrace their policy recommendations, there is little doubt that these academics provided the conceptual frameworks which policymakers used to think about the nuclear revolution.

As nuclear weapons fell off the radar at the end of the Cold War, so did much of the intellectual energy behind studying important concepts like deterrence. General Chilton lamented at the deterrence symposium this summer when he said:

And why is it important that we stoke the intellectual fires on the study of deterrence? Well, here I must admit to perhaps at least a partially selfish reason. It is my view that it has been the better part of two decades, since most of us in the U.S. Department of Defense have invested the appropriate time, thought and consideration to studying the topic of deterrence. . . We have had too little fresh thinking about deterrence in the last 17 years, yet the world has marched on and marched forward at an alarming pace toward greater complexity. We see it economically, technologically, socially and militarily in ways that were unimaginable a generation ago.

Following on the follow-on

Jan 25, 2010

Brookings hosted an event today featuring a panel of Strobe Talbott, Steve Pifer, and Clifford Gaddy that was moderated by Fiona Hill.  The event was in large part a rollout of the new publication by Pifer, Gaddy, and Joe Cirincione about the U.S. Russia relationship on WMD-related issues.  Moving beyond discussion of the current treaty being negotiated, the report makes recommendations for the U.S. and Russia in 3 areas: the next round of arms reductions, shoring up the nonproliferation regime, and tackling the peaceful use of nuclear energy issue.   The report contains a bunch of recommendations in each area that I won't get into.  Two interesting arguments made at the event that were not necessarily at the heart of the discussion:

1. Strobe Talbott spent awhile talking about the domestic political environment in the United States and how that will impact the administration's 2010 nuclear agenda.  While Scott Brown's election doesn't directly impact the fact that Republicans will have to be courted to get a START follow-on ratified, Talbott argued that Brown's election does have an impact on the administration's arms control aspirations.  Washington is currently quite polarized and the degree to which the Republicans dig in their heels and try to put the administration on the defensive on issues like Health Care may be a harbinger of what kinds of fights will be expected on issues like START follow-on. 

2.  As the U.S. and Russia seek to finalize a signed START follow-on "soonish"  they will begin thinking about tackling another treaty that will have to deal with some of the very thorny issues like TNW's, non-deployed weapons, and missile defense.  This will be a long and arduous process but Pifer argued that the U.S. and Russia should seek to make a statement in the lead up to the 2010 Review Conference stating their intent to begin the work on such a treaty.  Should this happen, it could provide the administration another piece to include in its shield against criticism about Article VI, although the longstanding effort to get CTBT ratified may cast doubt in some minds about how much stock to put in words about intentions. 

 

Nuclear Policy News - January 25, 2010

Jan 25, 2010

FISSILE MATERIAL

North Korea accuses Seoul of 'open declaration of war'
London Times

Ahmadinejad hints Iran resolved to make 20 pct nuclear fuel
AFP by Jay Deshmukh

New nuclear deal "95 pct" agreed-Russia's Medvedev
Reuters

U.S. Should Embrace Using Nukes for Nuclear Threat Only, Experts Say
Global Security Newswire  by Martin Matishak

Three steps to reducing nuclear terrorism
CSM by Micah Zenko and Michael Levi

Mission Impossible: Nuclear Weapons, Mission Importance, and the U.S. Labs

Jan 22, 2010

(Thanks to PONI coordinator Mark Jansson for some valuable comments)

As the dust settles from the third installment of the Gang of 4 op-ed, the emphasis upon maintaining a strong deterrent as key “as we work to reduce nuclear weaponry and to realize the vision of a world without nuclear weapons” has provided a big enough cake for everyone to take their own slice. Apparently, the op-ed simultaneously rebuffs Kyl’s claims, “broke camp" with past op-eds and "headed back to the nuclear reservation,” emphasized the importance of confidence in deterrence, and had both good and questionable signs. As is oft the case with debates on nuclear issues, how you interpret the op-ed probably depends on your starting point and what sections you choose to quote.

The primary argument highlighted here that didn’t receive as much attention in other coverage of the op-ed is the emphasis upon the importance of ensuring recruiting the best and the brightest to ensure technical competency on nuclear weapons. Travis Sharp, now at CNAS, argued that reports of funding increases in FY2011 and some DoD money for the labs helps alleviate part of the concern but that worries about the mission importance are overstated. He argues:

JASON’s warning about perceived lack of mission importance, however, strikes me as a lesser concern. The nuclear laboratories and the U.S. military should communicate their concerns about morale up the chain of command, and the concerns should be taken into consideration because less-than-happy scientific and military personnel will not maximize U.S. national security. From an arms control perspective, I would add that innovative, technically rigorous, science-based initiatives contribute mightily to nonproliferation, and you are certainly not going to get Teh Scyense from Beltway hacks like yours truly. However, let’s make one thing absolutely clear. While people are an invaluable part of the U.S. nuclear weapons enterprise, the FEELINGS of the nuclear bureaucracy should not be the determinative factor when formulating U.S. nuclear weapons policy. In response to JASON’s concern about the perceived lack of mission importance, let me just say that I’m so sorry the Cold War had to end and nuclear weapons work became so much less interesting and such an unstable career path. We should definitely forget about President Obama’s plan to reduce unnecessary nuclear weapons so that it doesn’t scare away the best and brightest lab workers. The job security of U.S. governmental personnel should be the primary driver of U.S. foreign policy, after all. Lest we forget, the commander in chief throws the signs, and the nuclear laboratories and the U.S. military hook up the beats with clout – regardless of how they feel they are progressing on their self-actualization charts. When it comes to determining U.S. nuclear weapons policy, sustaining the morale of governmental personnel in the nuclear complex must not be permitted to trump the primary objective of protecting the American people from the threat posed by nuclear weapons. [emphasis in original]
 

Sharp raises a few important questions about what it means to have a suitable sense of mission and purpose at the laboratories that desereve further examination.  There are three major points to emphasize:

This Week in U.S. Politics

Jan 22, 2010

Sidney Weintraub

Holder of the William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy

Those of us who support reform of health care have had a bad week or so. With the election of a Republican in the Massachusetts Senate race, the Democrats lost their filibuster-proof majority. President Obama argued against rushing to judgment; if he doesn’t rush, the new Senator will be in place and he will have no time. Nancy Pelosi, after the Massachusetts election results were known, assured the media that a health bill will be forthcoming. That was evidently an empty statement, so she then said she does not have the votes to pass the Senate health care bill in the House.

Syndicate content