On Monday October 10, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) began a short visit to the United States, during which he spoke in both Washington, DC and Chicago. López Obrador arrived in the United States on the back of new poll data that shows him increasing his lead over his PRD rival, Marcelo Ebrard, in the preferences of PRD supporters. Although he continues to be a hugely controversial figure both within the party and across the Mexican electorate, AMLO now seems to be the obvious choice for the PRD.
The numbers and the tour also coincide with an apparent change in AMLO’s tone in public statements. In recent speeches he has adopted a more conciliatory line to investors and the rich, as well as using the language of social harmony rather than conflict. An excellent piece by CIDE’s Jorge Chabat highlights these changes and argues that the only way in which we will discover who the real AMLO is, the moderate or the extremist, will be if he actually wins the presidency in July 2012.
On Friday September 9, Ernesto Cordero, Mexico's Minister of Finance, stepped down from his post and declared himself a contender for the PAN presidential candidacy in 2012. The event was far from a surprise; most observers had been waiting for months for Cordero to formally announce his aspiration to the presidency, although in recent weeks Cordero had tried to give the impression that he was entirely devoted to preparing Mexico for the coming economic and financial instability originating in Europe and the United States and not concerned with running for elected office.
Public and media reaction to the announcement was muted, which is unsurprising given the fact that Cordero has been seen as a "gray" candidate ever since his name was first mentioned in connection with the PAN candidacy. This, despite the fact that Cordero is commonly viewed as the first choice of President Calderón to succeed him. A poll taken shortly before his campaign launch gave Cordero support of only around 7-8 percent of Panistas, and only 5 percent of the broader electorate.
Since the excitement of the July elections, in which the PRI emerged dominant in the polls, there has been little change in the standings of the three main parties, although the feeling of momentum behind the PRI has of course grown. Within the PAN and the PRD, furthermore, interesting and important developments have taken place that makes their prospects even weaker than before. A recent Reforma poll put likely PRI voters at 45 percent, with the PAN receiving 29 percent and the PRD trailing at 13 percent.
July 26 marked the 58th anniversary of the unsuccessful military assault on the Moncada army barracks, an attack which initiated the Cuban revolution and is now celebrated yearly. Commemorating this event, Vice President José Ramón Machado Ventura spoke in Ciego de Avila, not just to celebrate the past but to discuss a new struggle Cuba faces today; economic reform. The reforms being implemented throughout the island nation have produced visible changes, but where these reforms are headed remains difficult to tell
Panama is the fastest growing economy in Latin America, according to the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), with 8.5 percent growth expected in 2011. Visible signs of this economic boom abound in Panama City, which boasts new high rises and a $1.2 billion subway system under construction. These investments, coupled with the $5.3 billion expansion of the Panama Canal, have made Panama a regional leader in economic and urban development. However, the aggressive push for a modern skyline has neglected basic infrastructural requirements, forcing the government to scramble to meet basics needs.
As predicted by pollsters and this blog, the PRI won each of Mexico’s gubernatorial elections on July 3, trouncing the opposition in the Estado de México (Edomex), Coahuila and Nayarit (it also won the local level elections in Hidalgo). The size of the victory in the Edomex was surprising to some, with the PRI’s Eruviel Ávila taking more than 62 percent of the vote there. Afterwards, the PRI began celebrating and the party’s Senate leader, Manlio Fabio Beltrones, announced that he would seek an extraordinary session of Congress to approve essential reforms in the areas of labor policy, politics, and national security. This highlights how the party is finally preparing the way for what it sees as an expected victory in the summer of 2012. The reforms are indeed important, and will help future governments to tackle crucial problems (even though the labor reform package does not provide a radical change from the status quo).
During a mid-June news conference, Venezuelan Energy Minister Ali Rodriguez announced that current “demand is excessive”, and that all Venezuelans must join the campaign to save electricity. Despite an abundance of energy resources, Venezuela has been forced to ration its electricity in certain regions since May, but the impetus behind last week’s announcement came after the states of Zulia (which contains Maracaibo, Venezuela’s second largest city), Trujillo, Mérida, Táchira, and Barinas experienced blackouts. Whereas last year’s rolling blackouts were blamed on severe droughts which limited hydroelectric production, recent power failures are largely due to the nation’s inability to meet rising demand.
Although this weekend’s gubernatorial election in the Estado de México (Edomex) will grab the majority of national headlines, it is important to remember that this Sunday sees elections for the governorship in two other states, Coahuila and Nayarit. In both of these states the PRI has traditionally been the dominant political force and it is unlikely that this will change on July 3.
On July 3 the most anticipated elections of 2011 will occur in the State of Mexico (Edomex) to decide who will be the next governor of the state. As this blog has discussed, the electoral prospects of the three main parties in next year’s federal elections will be significantly impacted by the outcome of the Edomex election. Should the PRI win (as looks increasingly likely), the party will have a strong base for campaigning next year in Mexico’s most populous state. Furthermore, Enrique Peña Nieto, the current governor of the state and the leading contender to be the PRI’s presidential candidate next year, will have ensured a safe handover of power to his successor, thereby strengthening his leadership credentials.
On the evening of June 22, the three main candidates held their final debate. Apart from the restatement of their electoral platforms and promises, the most intriguing moment in the debate came when Alejandro Encinas, the candidate for the PRD-PT-Convergencia alliance, Unidos Podemos Más, called for PAN and PRI voters alike to vote tactically (voto util) and switch their preference to him on July 3, in order to break the tradition of PRI corruption and mismanagement in the state. The PAN candidate, Luis Felipe Bravo Mena, reacted fiercely to Encinas’s request, arguing that the PRD has rejected the offer of an official alliance in the state due to potential presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) vociferous opposition.
The announcement by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that Christine Lagarde and Agustin Carstens have been shortlisted for the top job at the organization has sent both candidates on world tours to garner support for their bid. As both are well qualified, questions of nationality and credentials are playing major roles in the global discussion surrounding Lagarde and Carstens. While Christine Lagarde has received headlines around the world, Carstens remains underrepresented in comparison. The Mexican economist and current head of Banco de México (Mexico’s Central Bank) even admits that Lagarde has the edge in the race, equating his situation with starting a soccer game down 5-0.
On Monday October 10, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) began a short visit to the United States, during which he 
On Friday September 9, Ernesto Cordero, Mexico's Minister of Finance, stepped down from his post and declared himself a contender for the PAN presidential candidacy in 2012. The event was far from a surprise; most observers had been waiting for months for Cordero to formally announce his aspiration to the presidency, although in recent weeks Cordero had tried to give the impression that he was entirely devoted to preparing Mexico for the coming economic and financial instability originating in Europe and the United States and not concerned with running for elected office. 
Since the excitement of the July elections, in which the PRI emerged dominant in the polls, there has been little change in the standings of the three main parties, although the feeling of momentum behind the PRI has of course grown. Within the PAN and the PRD, furthermore, interesting and important developments have taken place that makes their prospects even weaker than before. A recent Reforma poll put likely PRI voters at 45 percent, with the PAN receiving 29 percent and the PRD trailing at 13 percent.
July 26 marked the 58th anniversary of the unsuccessful military assault on the Moncada army barracks, an attack which initiated the Cuban revolution and is now celebrated yearly. Commemorating this event, Vice President José Ramón Machado Ventura spoke in Ciego de Avila, not just to celebrate the past but to discuss a new struggle Cuba faces today; 
Panama is the fastest growing economy in Latin America, according to the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (
During a mid-June news conference, Venezuelan Energy Minister Ali Rodriguez announced that current “
The announcement by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that Christine Lagarde and 