The Colombia Conflict: Where is it Heading?

The CSIS Americas Program hosted a discussion of “The Colombia Conflict: Where is it Heading?” featuring Professor Michael Spagat of the Royal Holloway College, University of London. 

Professor Michael Spagat discussed his most recent findings in his analysis of the Colombia conflict. In studying 20,000 conflict events – that is, violent events that are directly related to the political situation – between 1988 and June 2005, he has found a number of statistics that have important implications in the continuing campaign to disarm paramilitaries and control guerrilla groups. His small team is composed of political scientists and statisticians in Bogotá, where they use a national publication to determine which events qualify for their database. They then independently investigate all events with 10 or more casualties and a random sample of events with less than 10 casualties to verify the data and determine the findings that they presented. This presentation represented the first time that the data from the first half of 2005 was available, and the newest installment of analysis determined some trends that have changed since the beginning of the Uribe government. Overall, the information shows that the government forces are being largely successful but still face challenges, especially in specific regions of Colombia. Spagat believes that his dataset has much valuable data that the Uribe government can use in its continuing negotiations with the paramilitaries and its general handling of the conflict situation.