Expert Related Publication Feeds

The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey

sherry — Mon, 21 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair is issuing a new, expanded edition of its overview of The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey. This analysis is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/120514_MENA_Stability.pdf

The Gulf Military Balance in 2012

ian — Fri, 18 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair at CSIS is issuing a new report called the Gulf Military Balance in 2012. This report is available on the CSIS web site at:

http://csis.org/files/publication/120518_Gulf_Military_Balance_2012.pdf

The US Cost of the Afghan War: FY2002-FY2013

bfite — Tue, 15 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

It is surprisingly difficult to get a meaningful estimate of the total cost of the Afghan conflict, total spending on Afghan forces and total spending on various forms of aid. More data are available on US efforts – which have dominated military and aid spending, but even these data present serious problems in reliability, consistency, and definition.

Measures of "Progress" in Afghanistan in the Spring of 2012

sherry — Wed, 09 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Military Progress is only one of the tests that the US and ISAF must meet to accomplish a successful transition in Afghanistan – even on the basis of minimal security and stability or Afghan “good enough:”

Rethinking Our Approach to Iran's Search for the Bomb

sherry — Mon, 07 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

We badly need to rethink our approach to Iran’s nuclear programs. We are putting far too much emphasis on Iran’s nuclear efforts without considering how these programs fit into Iran’s over military and strategic objectives. At the same time, we are placing too much emphasis on whether Iran has revived its formal nuclear program and the current shape of its nuclear facilities.

The FY2013 Defense Budget and the New Strategy-Reality Gap

bfite — Thu, 03 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The United States has now provided a wide range of details as to its new strategy and its FY2013 national security budgets.

Time to Focus on "Afghan Good Enough"

sherry — Tue, 01 May 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Every day seems to widen the gap between the goals the United States is seeking to achieve in Afghanistan and its ability to achieve them. Even apparent progress, like the Strategic Framework Agreement between the United States and Afghanistan, seems more a warning on the inability to define specific goals, milestones, and resources—coupled with growing restraints on U.S.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Sanctions game: Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change

ian — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

Tightening sanctions and Iran’s reactions have become a race against time. Every day brings a new event as the competition between the US and Iran plays out on a global level. The Burke Chair at CSIS is issuing a new report that puts this competition in a broader perspective, as part of its on-going series on US and Iranian strategic competition.

The "Arab Spring" Becomes the "Arab Decade"

bfite — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

It is now all too clear that the “Arab Spring” is much more likely to be the “Arab Decade.” The pattern of political unrest that began in 2011 is driven by a mix of political, demographic, and economic issues in each country that has experienced serious unrest will take at least a decade to resolve in a form that can bring lasting stability.

Afghanistan: The Uncertain Economics of Transition

sherry — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The economics of Afghanistan are only one aspect of the challenges posed by US, allied, and Afghan efforts to accomplish a successful transition. There are many reasons that transition will either fail or be determined by Afghanistan’s internal dynamics and the role of regional states regardless of what the US, Europe, and other aid donors do:

The Worst Threat to America: A Partisan and Self-Paralyzed Congress

ian — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The next administration faces many critical national security risks in the coming years: the challenge from China; instability in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, and Mexico; the challenge of Iran; the unpredictable behavior of North Korea; and the continued threat of Islamic terrorism.

Energy Risks in North Africa and the Middle East

sherry — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair has developed a detailed estimate of energy risks in the Middle East and North Africa, drawing heavily on the analyses of the Energy Information Agency (EIA) of the US Department of Energy.

Dealing With the Growing Afghan and U.S. Tensions That Are Losing the War

ian — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The US, its allies and Afghanistan face a war-losing crisis over the growing tensions between them. These tensions exist at many levels and on both sides.

US and Iranian Strategic Competition In Sanctions, Energy, Arms Control, and Arms Transfers

sherry — Wed, 14 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The Need for a New U.S. Strategy: The Real Message of the Latest Crisis in Afghanistan

sherry — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The United States needs to look beyond the latest incident and focus on the broader patterns in U.S. and Afghan relations. It needs to realize that its current strategy is becoming a façade that can only make things worse, and it needs to make a hard choice: Admit that the United States is headed toward an exit strategy or recast current U.S.

The Real Outcome of the Iraq War: US and Iranian Strategic Competition in Iraq

ian — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Events in Iraq since the US withdrawal have made it all too clear that the US celebrated the end of the Iraq War without any realism as to the impact the war and US occupation had on Iraqi society. Iraq remains a violent and unstable place, with Iranian influence on the rise. The political, economic, and security situation in Iraq, as well as the US and Iranian competition in the co

Iran and the Gulf Military Balance II: The Missile and Nuclear Dimensions

sherry — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The military competition between Iran and the US, the Southern Gulf states, and Israel has already triggered a de facto nuclear arms race in the region, and has produced a growing confrontation over Iran’s missile programs and nuclear efforts.

Iran and the Gulf Military Balance I: The Conventional and Asymmetric Dimensions

sherry — Tue, 06 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The Burke Chair at CSIS has greatly updated and expanded its analysis of Iranian military forces to reflect recent events, as well as comments on the previous draft.

Iran: The Waiting Option

sherry — Tue, 06 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0500

We may have to use force against Iran. It may provoke clashes or a conflict in the Gulf, or it may refuse any realistic diplomatic solution to its growing capabilities to produce nuclear weapons.

U.S. And Iranian Strategic Competition: The Role Of The Southern Gulf States And Yemen

sherry — Tue, 28 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The Gulf is the strategic center of the competition between the US and Iran. The stability of the Gulf is critical to the global economy, as roughly 40 percent of the world’s oil and product trade is exported from the Gulf. Most of this goes through the Strait of Hormuz, which at its narrowest point is just 21 miles wide.

Afghanistan: The Death of a Strategy

sherry — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

It is always tempting to ride the headlines and focus on events like the marines urinating on a Taliban corpse, the burning of the Qur’ans, and the attacks on U.S. and International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) personnel that have followed in even the most secure and best-vetted facilities. It has been a truly grim week and one where these events raise questions about U.S.

The Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey

sherry — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

We have updated and greatly expanded our analysis of the metrics that can cause political instability and unrest in the Gulf and Middle East.

Afghanistan: The Failed Metrics of Ten Years of War

sherry — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The US has now been at war in Afghanistan for more than a decade, and is committed to stay through 2014 – with a possible advisory, aid, and funding presence that may extend to 2025. There still, however, are no convincing unclassified ways to measure progress in the war, or the trends in the fighting and level of violence.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of China and Russia

Mon, 06 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

Iraq and the Challenge of Continuing Violence

sherry — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraq at the end of 2011 did not leave that country with a functioning democracy or effective governance; nor has it put an end to high levels of local violence, or ethnic and sectarian tension.

Key Official US and IAEA Statements About Iran’s Nuclear Programs

ian — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

There is a great deal of speculation about Iran’s nuclear programs that do not list sources or reflect the views of the US intelligence community.

The Real Issues in Afghanistan: Looking Beyond Undefined Policy Statements and Slogans

ian — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Secretary’s Panetta’s comment about ending the US combat role in Afghanistan in 2013, and focusing on building up Afghan forces, have triggered a predictable firestorm of criticism, guesswork, and speculation.

The “New” US Defense Strategy and the FY2013 US Defense Budget: The Details of What the Department Has Said to Date

ian — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

During the last month, the US Department of Defense has issued a series of announcements, and two white papers summarizing its “new” approach to strategy and the decisions it is making in its FY2013 budget submission to cut the size and cost of US military forces.

Measuring the Causes of Instability in the Middle East and North Africa

ian — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The Burke Chair at CSIS has developed a new report entitled The Causes of Instability in the Middle East and North Africa, which is available on the CSIS web site at:

http://csis.org/files/publication/120126_MENA_Stability_Slides.pdf

The FY2013 Defense Budget Submission: Strategy is Easy (and Usually Vacuous); Money is Hard (And Only Meaningful if Used Wisely)

ian — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The Obama Administration announced a new strategy early this month, but one in which it failed to provide meaningful details as to changes in deployments, force levels and plans, procurement plans, and spending.

Negotiating with the Taliban: Six Critical Conditions that Must Be Met to Avoid Another “Peace to End All Peace”

sherry — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

There is no doubt that successful peace talks would be the best possible outcome of the Afghan conflict for everyone involved. History is not, however, filled with best possible outcomes.

Transition in the Afghanistan-Pakistan War: How Does This War End?

ian — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The future of Afghanistan and Pakistan will be shaped by the way in which the US, NATO/ISAF, and major aid donors interact with the Afghan and Pakistani governments as they “transition” by withdrawing their forces and cutting their spending and aid.

Critical Issues for 2012

sherry — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Critical Questions for 2012

ian — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

From international security and regional study to global challenges, CSIS experts will address many of the world's most difficult policy concerns and critical questions in 2012. To kick off the new year, we asked 25 of our scholars to identity what worries them most and what are the biggest opportunities in their respective areas of study.

The Afghan War At the End of 2011: A Status Report

sherry — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

If the US and its allies are to achieve any meaningful form of victory in Afghanistan, they must make a realistic assessment of progress to date. They must develop and begin to implement realistic transition plans during the first half of this year. The Burke chair at CSIS has developed a two-part report that shows the progress made to date in the war.

Iran and the Threat to "Close" the Gulf

sherry — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

There is nothing new about Iran’s threat to close the Gulf, but it does need to be put in context. Iran is reshaping its military forces to steadily increase the threat to Gulf shipping and shipping in the Gulf of Oman, It also is gradually increasing its ability to operate in the Indian Ocean.

The Broader Crisis in Iraq

ian — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

It is tempting to focus solely on the evolving political crisis and power struggle between Prime Minister Maliki and his opponents, but this is only part of the crisis in Iraq.

Iraq’s Broader Political and Governance Challenges

The End of the War in Iraq: A Graphic Overview

Thu, 15 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The US has sharply cutback its reporting on the Iraq War since the spring of 2011. There are, however, still a number of sources that help put both the Iraq War and the current state of Iraq into perspective.

The "End" of the War in Iraq?

ian — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

It is all too clear that most Americans want the war in Iraq to be over. A Gallup poll in October found that 75% approved of President Obama’s withdrawal of U.S. troops, although Americans divide sharply by party: 96% Democrats, 77% independents, and 43% Republicans. There are good reasons for such feelings. In spite of U.S.

Iran and the Gulf Military Balance

ian — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

This report has been extensively updated in the wake of the IAEA’s November 8, 2011 report which provides the most detailed indicators that Iran is taking steps toward producing nuclear weapons.

The Outcome of Invasion: US and Iranian Strategic Competition in Iraq

sherry — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Iraq has become a key focus of the strategic competition between the United States and Iran. The history of this competition has been shaped by the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), the 1991 Gulf War, and the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. Since the 2003 war, both the US and Iran have competed to shape the structure of Post-Saddam Iraq’s politics, governance, economics, and security.

Pakistan Crisis and Its Impacts on the Afghan Transition

ian — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The outcome of latest US crisis with Pakistan is still unclear.

Defense Budget Cuts and Non-Traditional Threats to US Strategy: An Update

ian — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The deadline for the “Super Committee” to reach a deficit deal is rapidly approaching, with the cost of failure being devastating cuts in national security funding.

US and Iranian Strategic Competition in the Gulf States and Yemen

sherry — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

The Afghanistan-Pakistan War at the End of 2011

sherry — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The US faces hard decisions in the Afghanistan/Pakistan War that are growing steadily harder as the time before transition runs out, the US faces growing budget pressures, and the situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan becomes more unstable. The Burke Chair has prepared a report that assesses the chances for strategic success based on new US government, UN, and NGO reporting.

The National Security Implications of a Balanced Budget Amendment

ian — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The passage of the Budget Control Act (BCA) has broad implications for every program and agency that is funded through the Federal budget process, but consequences for the American defense and national security apparatus are both unique and important to analyze.

The New IAEA Report and Iran’s Evolving Nuclear and Missile Forces

ian — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Iran’s potential acquisition of nuclear weapons and the ability to arm its missiles and aircraft with such weapons represents the most serious risk that shapes US, Arab, Israeli and other international perceptions.

Rethinking the Arab "Spring": Stability and Security in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and the Rest of the MENA Region

ian — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

No one can ignore the short-term problems the political upheavals in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia create for each country. New leaders must be chosen and security systems must be changed. The problems involved can kill political, economic and demographic reforms before they even begin.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Peripheral Competition Involving Latin America and Africa

sherry — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

Defense Budget Cuts and Non-Traditional Threats to US Strategy: An Update

sherry — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The US Congress has passed budget legislation that threatens devastating cuts in national security funding if the Congress does not act to find meaningful solutions to the nation’s debt and deficit problems by the end of 2011. These cuts, however, are only one of several non-traditional threats to US security.