Expert Related Publication Feeds

Middle East Notes and Comment: Getting Syria Right

dholodnik — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

It has been a bad year for Middle Eastern dictators. Several have lost power or died trying to keep it, despite efforts to avoid a common fate.

Getting Syria Right

sherry — Fri, 20 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

It has been a bad year for Middle Eastern dictators. Several have lost power or died trying to keep it, despite efforts to avoid a common fate.

Arab Changes Yet to Come

ian — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 00:00:00 -0400

The pace of change in the Arab world has slowed since the heady days of January 2011. Then, it seemed incomprehensible that a month of protests could topple President Zine el-Abidine bin Ali of Tunisia after 23 years in power. The next month, it seemed even more incomprehensible that a mere 18 days of protests could force out President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt after 29 years of rule.

Middle East Notes and Comment: The Iran Problem

dholodnik — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 00:00:00 -0400

As the world works to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, there is widespread agreement on what failure looks like: an Iranian bomb—or more likely, a number of Iranian bombs—that emboldens the Iranian government, threatens the Middle East and prompts many of Iran’s neighbors to develop their own weapons, destabilizing the most energy-rich part of the world.

Remembering Anthony Shadid

ian — Sat, 18 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

I met him before he was Anthony Shadid. In the summer of 1991, he was just a skinny kid from the University of Wisconsin with a black mustache and an easy smile. We were studying Arabic together in Cairo. He was a third-generation Lebanese-American who had learned Arabic from scratch with an idea the he would become a Middle East correspondent.

Middle East Notes and Comment: Slippery Choices

dholodnik — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The Gulf Arab States have a dilemma. One reason that they have been able to avoid upheaval over the last tumultuous year in the Middle East is because they have made their already generous public subsidies even more generous. But within the short-term fix is a set of longer-term problems that could profoundly affect regional stability.

Egypt and U.S. Health Assistance

jdunton — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Few countries have been as successful as Egypt in parlaying its strategic position into an economic asset. At the nexus of two continents, astride the Suez Canal, and with one-quarter of the Arab world’s entire population, Egypt has made itself an object of interest, and often an object of concern, among the world’s great powers for more than a half-century.

Middle East Notes and Comment: The Arab Decade?

dholodnik — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

One year ago, the protests in Cairo’s Tahrir Square proved that Tunisia was not a fluke. Until January 2011, Tunisia didn’t resonate much in the Arab world. It was too small, too Francophile, and too socially liberal.

Egypt in Transition: Insights and Options for U.S. Policy

dholodnik — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Egypt’s leadership has dashed expectations for a swift and complete shift from autocracy to democracy. The inherent conservatism of Egypt’s military leadership, combined with the political ineffectiveness of many of the activists who were at the center of public protests a year ago, is widening the gap between public expectations of the post-Mubarak era and its reality.

Critical Questions for 2012

ian — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

From international security and regional study to global challenges, CSIS experts will address many of the world's most difficult policy concerns and critical questions in 2012. To kick off the new year, we asked 25 of our scholars to identity what worries them most and what are the biggest opportunities in their respective areas of study.

Middle East Notes and Comment: Allies at Odds

mDziuban — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The United States is used to looking for trouble from its enemies, but a growing set of problems will emerge from its allies. In the eastern Mediterranean, three U.S. allies are increasingly at loggerheads, and the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better.

Middle East Notes and Comment: Politics of Piety

ian — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Many in the United States—and in the Middle East—worry that religious extremists in the Arab world are on the cusp of something big. Across the region, groups that blend religion and politics are injecting more religion into more open politics.

Seeing Through the Fog: Transitional Governments in Libya and Elsewhere

dholodnik — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

On October 6, 2011, Dr. Jon Alterman delivered a talk at the Marine Corps University in Quantico, VA, entitled “Seeing Through the Fog: Transitional Governments in Libya and Elsewhere.” The talk drew on experience with transitions around the world to caution patience, identify the perils of U.S.

TWQ: The Revolution Will Not Be Tweeted - Fall 2011

Sat, 01 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Judging by the popular press, in January 2011 Twitter and Facebook went from being simply engaging social diversions to become engines of political change that upended decades of Arab authoritarianism.

Middle East Notes and Comment: The Turkey Connection

dholodnik — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Saudi Arabia has a problem. Its decades-long alliances with Iraq and Egypt have been sundered, and its faith in U.S. leadership is at its lowest point in memory. Its regional threats have grown, not only from Iranians directly across the Gulf, but from the actions of Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East that endanger Saudi allies.

Conference Report: Planning for Post-Gadhafi Libya

mDziuban — Tue, 02 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0400

On July 25, CSIS convened approximately 50 experts from the government, diplomatic and expert communities to analyze the way forward in Libya. Among the key conclusions of the speakers are:

Middle East Notes and Comment: A Troubling Mix

mDziuban — Tue, 12 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Five months in, Egypt's post-Mubarak politics have yet to take shape. With parliamentary elections scheduled to take place in only two months, and with Egyptians still wondering if they will vote for district representatives, national party lists, or some hybrid system, July's uncertainty has replaced February's euphoria.

Gulf Roundtable: Iran’s Maritime Evolution

dholodnik — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Iran’s nuclear program gets the press, but Iran’s navy is an indispensible part of its regional strategy. A swift, versatile navy gives Iran political and economic leverage in and around the Gulf, and allows it to challenge U.S. presence without necessarily suffering retaliation. Dr. David B.

Investing in A More Robust Public Policy Environment in the Middle East

Mon, 27 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

With the winds of change blowing through the Arab world, the time is ripe for supporting a more robust public policy environment in the region. Over time, a disciplined and coordinated effort can help nurture an environment in which younger generations are more intimately connected with policymaking and where political debate occurs outside the blogosphere, among individuals and civil soc

Middle East Notes and Comment: Forgotten Lessons

Tue, 21 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

If there were a single lesson to be learned from the bloody and chaotic period that followed the toppling of Saddam Hussein, it was the importance of planning carefully for the post-conflict environment. As coalition forces bear down on Muammar Gadhafi’s Libya, that lesson is being forgotten.

Fierce or Feeble: Persian Gulf Assessments of U.S. Power

ian — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Since the conclusion of the Cold War brought an end to Soviet threats to Western Europe, no region of the world has a security architecture more reliant on U.S. power than the Persian Gulf. The U.S. military commitment to the Gulf is substantial for such a small piece of geography.

"U.S.-China Relations: Cooperation and Contending over the Middle East" (in Chinese and English)

Fri, 17 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

China, the United States, and the Middle East form a triangle. All three value regional stability and energy security, and each needs strong relations with the other two. Chinese engagement in the Middle East makes some in the United States worry that China could become its rival in the Middle East.

The Earthquake: How Egypt Emerges From Uncertainty

ian — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Egypt is not Tunisia. When Tunisian president Zine El-Abidine Bin Ali fl ed Tunis on January 14, it was a curiosity in the Middle East. Tunisia had long nurtured pretentions of being more European than Arab, and its relatively small population cast a scant shadow on the Arab world.

Middle East Notes and Comment: The Middle East Turns East

Tue, 17 May 2011 00:00:00 -0400

As the United States struggles to understand the paradigm shifts underway in the Middle East, one shift has received almost no attention, and it should. After more than two centuries of the United States viewing the Middle East from the perspective of an Atlantic power, the United States increasingly views the region from the perspective of a Pacific power as well. The shift has pro

Gulf Roundtable: Eyes on Bahrain

Mon, 02 May 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The unrest raging in Bahrain is hardly surprising. The Bahraini uprising feeds on old political tensions, according ot Kristin Smith Diwan, professor of international relations at American University's School of International Service, and is part of a genuine call for a more representative government. Fred Wehrey, senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, believes the disc

Middle East Notes and Comment: The Earthquake

Wed, 27 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0400

When Hosni Mubarak resigned on February 11, it was an earthquake that shook the entire region, and shakes it still. Egypt had long ago lost its mantle as the leader of the Arab world, but it was certainly its center of gravity. How Egypt emerges from its current uncertainty will shape the coming decades in the entire Middle East.

Middle East Notes and Comment: The Revolution Will Not Be Televised

Tue, 15 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0400

It is tempting to see the political protests sweeping the Middle East as "Facebook Revolutions"; to see the Internet as a force that galvanizes hundreds of thousands of young people into a new political force that breathes life into stolid authoritarian regimes. But the Internet is only part of the story. Good old-fashioned television is probably more important in turning

Gulf Roundtable: Scarcity and Strategy in the GCC

Fri, 25 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Resource scarcity in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will challenge the same political and economic structures that resource abundance has helped shore up. Dr. Toby Jones and Dr. Eckart Woertz discussed these challenges at a Gulf Roundtable hosted by the CSIS Middle East Program on February 25, 2011.

Middle East Notes and Comment: Drawing the Wrong Lessons

Tue, 08 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Mubarak's end is near, but the danger is that other Arab leaders will draw the wrong lesson from his fall. Rather than concluding that Mubarak was too wed to the ideas of the past, they are likely to conclude he was insufficiently cautious of abandoning those ideas.

Events in Egypt

ian — Sat, 29 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Q1: What is at stake for the United States in Egypt?

Middle East Notes and Comment: The Disconnect

Thu, 13 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0500

There is a disconnect between U.S. diplomatic efforts to heal the ills in foreign lands and foreign leaders' focus on their own domestic affairs. There is a disconnect between a U.S. government committed to change and foreign leaders' interest in continuity.

Gulf Roundtable: From Soldiers to Diplomats: the U.S. Civil-Military Transition in Iraq

Tue, 14 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0500

GCC concerns about Iranian influence in Iraq are "overplayed," according to Mark Matthews, former Director of Strategy, Plans, and Assessment for U.S.

Clear Gold

jdunton — Mon, 13 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0500

The real wild card for political and social unrest in the Middle East over the next 20 years is not war, terrorism, or revolution—it is water. Conventional security threats dominate public debate and government thinking, but water is the true game-changer in Middle Eastern politics.

الذهب الزُلال

mentman — Mon, 13 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0500

لن تنبع القلاقل السياسية والاجتماعية خلال العشرين عاما القادمة في الشرق الأوسط من الحروب، أو الإرهاب، أو الثورات، بل من منبع مفاجئ مستتر- إنه المياه.

Middle East Notes and Comment: Testing Patience

Tue, 07 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0500

Domestic politics and challenging allies will soon test the Obama administration's strategy of patience towards Iran. A Republican-led U.S.

Middle East Notes and Comment: A Question of Commitment

Mon, 22 Nov 2010 00:00:00 -0500

The Middle East concern is not one of U.S. capability. There is no alternative superpower in the wings, nor a regional power that threatens to displace the United States from its privileged position. In a region that sees itself as both vulnerable and weak, the United States remains a vital part of the stable order.

AQAP in Yemen

mentman — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 00:00:00 -0400

Q1: Last Friday, two suspicious packages were discovered aboard cargo and passenger flights originating in Yemen and bound for the United States. Reports suggest this may have been a failed bombing attempt by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), a terrorist group based in Yemen. What do we know about AQAP and its role in this plot?

Middle East Notes and Comment: Failure and Success on the Nile

Fri, 15 Oct 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The U.S.-Egyptian bilateral relationship over the last 30 years has been a failure. Either that, or it's been a tremendous success. One can make a strong case for both arguments.

Middle Eastern Perspectives on the United States

Thu, 14 Oct 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The following is an undedited transcript of an event convened by the Middle East Policy Council at the Rayburn House Office Building on October 14, 2010. The event featured discussions by Jon Alterman, Amin Tarzi, James Zogby, and Leon Hadar.

Gulf Roundtable: Iran, the Bomb, and Gulf Security

Wed, 13 Oct 2010 00:00:00 -0400

When it comes to its nuclear program, Iran's government seeks to manipulate any U.S.

Gulf Roundtable: Iran: Addressing the Nuclear Threat

Tue, 21 Sep 2010 00:00:00 -0400

On September 21, 2010, the CSIS Middle East Program hosted Congressman Howard Berman (D-CA), chairman of the U.S.

Middle East Notes and Comment: Bipolar Disorder

Mon, 20 Sep 2010 00:00:00 -0400

U.S. foreign policy increasingly centers on two very different poles. The first is Asia, where trade-based relationships offer opportunities for extensive mutual benefit. The second is the Middle East, where persistent insecurity and violent extremism threaten American lives and American interests. The U.S. relationship with Asia is largely about upside benefits, and the U.S.

"The Vital Triangle"

Mon, 12 Jul 2010 00:00:00 -0400

For the United States, China's increasing involvement in the Middle East represents the convergence of two major security problems. The first has to do with China's rise, which depending on whom you talk to, is something that needs to be accommodated or something that needs to be shaped. The second has to do with energy security, which the United States began to take seriously after

Middle East Notes and Comment: Games Kids Play

Thu, 08 Jul 2010 00:00:00 -0400

As the United States celebrates its 234th birthday, we should consider an important question: What if the United States were acting like a two-year-old?

Gulf Roundtable: The Conventional Military Balance in the Gulf

Thu, 24 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0400

In a conventional war against Iran, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries would almost certainly win, according to Dr. Anthony Cordesman, the Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS.

Middle East Notes and Comment: The Real Threat

Wed, 09 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0400

GCC countries can almost certainly survive physical threats, but unless they can create dynamic, hard working and creative populations over the long term, they will fail. The true threat that GCC societies face is not so much a conquering from without, but a crumbling from within.

Gulf Roundtable: Saudi Arabia: Domestic Dynamics and Regional Policies

Fri, 21 May 2010 00:00:00 -0400

Saudi debate on a range of social and regional policy issues has expanded considerably over the last five years. Much of this discussion is driven by the media which has expanded its coverage of women’s rights, freedom of speech, and government accountability.

Gulf Roundtable: Regional Reverberations: What If Israel Strikes Iran?

Wed, 21 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0400

If Israel struck Iran militarily, experts say, Iran would likely seek to retaliate against U.S. and GCC interests in the Gulf, Iran and Afghanistan. While Dr. Gary Sick argued that the aftermath of such a strike would be so profound as to make it both undesirable and unlikely, Dr. Kenneth Katzman suggested that contingencies are already in place to help manage the consequences.

Middle East Notes and Comment: Clear Gold

Thu, 15 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The most likely source of political and social unrest in the Middle East over the next twenty years is not warfare or military coups—it’s water. Military threats get all the press, but it’s water that is the real game-changer.

Gulf Roundtable: Trouble in the Backyard: Yemen and the GCC

Wed, 10 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0500

Yemen’s plight has sparked concern in more than one corner of the world. While the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) fears a failed state in its backyard, the United States and Europe fear that al Qaeda will turn the country into a safe haven for terrorists.