September, 2007

At the release of our report, Perilous Course: U.S. Strategy and Assistance to Pakistan, on September 24th, we enjoyed Ambassador Wendy J. Chamberlin’s insightful perspective as one of our panelists.

In Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, two authors, Bilal Y.

The controversial election continues today as Musharraf's prime minister, Shaukat Aziz, filed the president's nomination papers. Security forces swarmed the area around the election commission, stifling a planned protest to Musharraf's nomination. Unfazed by the security crack-down in Islamabad, around 1,000 protestors in the city of Lahore continued to rally against Musharraf. Opposition protestors' vehicles were banned from entering Islamabad, thus resorting to walking from the outskirts of the city to where they wished to place their nominations. Although some vow not to accept the legitimacy of a Supreme Court decision allowing Musharraf to run, Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) claim they will not contest the elections if such a decision is declared.

The World Bank has a Conflict Prevention & Reconstruction Unit, which hopes to provide "guidance on integrating a sensitivity to conflict into World Bank activities, including through conflict analysis aimed at optimizing

After President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran delivered a controversial speech at Columbia University and addressed the United Nations, the U.S. Senate voted for the Bush Administration to designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization.

Fox News: “It is the Sense of the Senate … that it should be the policy of the United States to combat, contain, and roll back the violent activities and destabilizing influence inside Iraq of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, its foreign facilitators such as Lebanese Hezbollah, and its indigenous Iraqi proxies.”

Some democrats (most notably Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va.) claim the proposal, passed by the senate with a 76-22 vote, is a mechanism for the Bush administration to use force against Iran under the auspices of Senate approval. Overall, the legislative branch seems to be roughly on the same page considering a Senate majority backed today’s proposal in conjunction with a House bill passed yesterday, on a 397-16 vote, demanding greater economic sanctions against Iran.

James Rupert of The Seattle Times references CSIS as a source in his unfortunate assesment: "U.S. loses ground as Afghanistan erodes."

Next Thursday, October 4th, the CSIS Office of the Chief of Staff is having the Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Kemal Dervis, come and speak as part of the Smart Power Speaker Series. The event will be at 1:00-2:30 in the B-1 Level Conference Room.

Still unsure how many Iraqi civilians have died since the fighting began in 2003? So are we, but here's a new report out from the Congressional Research Service that compiles some of the most often cited estimates.

If you've been keeping up with our blog posts or international news then you are aware of Washington's silence when President Musharraf (Pakistan) imprisoned nearly 2,000 supporters of previous Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, when he returned to Pakistan and was promptly redeported. Fortunately, the U.S. broke its silence today, when it denounced recent detentions of several major Pakistani political party leaders, in light of the upcoming presidential elections. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry responded curtly with a request that the U.S. stay out of its internal affairs.

Yesterday's event on developments in Pakistan and PCR’s new report A Perilous Course launch, featured Ambassador Robert Oakley among the distinguished panelists. Please read his informative speech below.  

AMB Robert Oakley – CSIS Speech
September 24, 2007

The CSIS Pakistan study is truly prescient.  All of the potential problems it foresaw in US relationships with Pakistan have come to pass, especially with the military’s overarching role in the country.  Rick Barton, Karin von Hippel, Craig Cohen and their collaborators deserve full marks.  Let us hope that policy-makers here and in Pakistan will pay close attention to their findings.

The big conference is drawing near, so please sign up now if you'd like to attend - www.overcomingextremism.org. It's October 22-23 and we've got a great line-up (all info on the website).

In terms of rewarding creativity and innovation, nothing beats the MacArthur Fellowship - $500,000 in no-strings-attached support funding.

We're fans of multilateralism and its institutions here (so much so that one of us did their grad studies in said topic).

In our report on Afghanistan, "Breaking Point," we warned of unchecked corruption in the government, an ongoing struggle with drugtrafficking and warlords, and most importantly an increase in the dangers presented by Taliban insurgency groups.

Building on yesterday's post, we've got to draw your attention to Juan Cole's piece today - Turning Ahmadinejad Into Public Enemy No. 1. Super thoughtful description of the phenomenon that's taking place here.

With three former ambassadors (Amb. Wendy Chamberlin, Amb. Robert Oakley, and Amb. Teresita Schaffer), today's event on developments in Pakistan and launching PCR's new report A Perilous Course featured excellent panelist commentary and thought-provoking questions from the audience.

We're keeping a close eye on US relations with Iran, and even had some conversation today about the ghastly prospect of planning for a post-conflict phase there, should the US or Israel strike in some way.

We’re keeping a close eye on US relations with Iran, and even had some conversation today about the ghastly prospect of planning for a post-conflict phase there, should the US or Israel strike in some way.

Fuel was added to the political storm brewing in Pakistan when Osama bin Laden released a tape today declaring Musharraf an "infidel" who must be torn down by waging a "holy war" against him. Bin laden describes Musharraf's allied relationship with the U.S.

Hosted by the U.S. Department of State, Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement, the Afghan Corrections Program Roundtable was held Tuesday, September 11th, 2007.

The roundtable discussion was led by Major General Ismat, the General Director of the Afghan Central Prisons Department (CPD), who was joined by Senior Afghan Officials of the Ministry of Justice. They were accompanied by the Director and staff of the State Department funded Corrections System Support Program (CSSP), a first of its kind Department of State operational corrections program.

Great resource with a ton of depth and analysis.

Now THAT'S a wonkish term, no? Nevertheless, here's a great new report from Rand on which policies should come in which order for the most effective post-conflict work. Actually a totally cool reference with some really interesting implications

NYTimes writer Jim Glanz describes new migration patterns for Iraqis of all sects, in his article in the Times today. As sectarian violence increases in some areas, millions of Iraqis are fleeing from the dangers of their homes.

Salman Masood is following Pakistan’s pre-election challenge to General Musharraf with some excellent articles (9/18, 9/19) from Islamabad.

That's certainly what we're hoping for - being in the conflict prevention business. Here are a few reasons why this might be the case.

President Musharraf's lawyers made the statement that he "would step down from his army post...after the election but before taking the oath of office for a new five-year term." Musharraf's opponents question whether the president will keep his word.

Check out Amb. Teresita Schaffer, Director of CSIS's South Asia Program's latest piece on a transitioning Pakistan. Amb.

“When a rug covers more than the floor” provides an uplifting example of how women in Afghanistan are finding ways to lift themselves out of the darkness.

Bringing together several of PCR’s core issues, check out UNAMA’s new report on suicide attacks in Afghanistan. A few notes from the summary:

Immediate efforts are needed to diminish perceptions of a foreign military occupation

Salman Masood is following Pakistan’s pre-election challenge to General Musharraf with some excellent articles (9/18, 9/19) from Islamaba

Condoleezza Rice arrives in Ramallah tomorrow amidst renewed controversy stemming from the scheduled Isreali-Palestine peace conference this November.

David Anderson of the Religion News Service brings to light important findings from our "Mixed Blessings" report in the The Pew Forum On Religion & Public Life.

A guest post from our former PCR colleague, Pete Demarco:

Please note that this event will now be held on Monday, September 24 – not Tuesday, September 25.

10:00am to 11:30am
Center for Strategic and International Studies
1800 K Street, Washington, DC 20006
B-1 Conference Room

As pet issues go, we're unapologetic about harping on the safety of Iraqi civilians (and all civilians - that's what the October conference is all about).

This is great and tragic all at once. From Andrew Sullivan:

We've got a lot going on this fall, and the Pakistan launch on Tuesday, September 25, should be big. Here's the info:

10:00am to 11:30am
Center for Strategic and International Studies
1800 K Street, Washington, DC 20006
B-1 Conference Room

The conference website is up! Please visit us at www.overcomingextremism.org to register for our October 22-23 conference at the Reagan Building here in Washington, DC. We have a great line-up of panelists and hope to have a terrific audience of 300-400 to really push the issue of protecting civilians.

Part of PCR Project Co-Director Rick Barton’s interview Thursday, on his take on the situation in Iraq, was covered by the nightly news on WUSA9.

Farhana Hossain of the New York Times presents us with a wonderful opportunity to explore the various "Assesments of the War," including the White House Initial Statement, the National Intelligence Estimate, an Independent Commission by Gen. James L.

According to BBC News, Al Jazeera.net, and newspapers around the world, thousands of supporters of Pakistan's previous Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (Pakistan Muslim League-N party) are currently detained

Finally! Rudy Ruitenberg of Bloomberg Press writes of mobile phone giant, Vivendi SA, putting a bid out in the coming year to buy stake in Oger Telecom Ltd.

George Packer blows us away again with this terrific piece on planning for when the US leaves Iraq, with more on the article at his blog.

H.D.S. Greenway, a regular Boston Globe columnist puts forth their view in "The Pakistan Problem" on the growing strength of Al Qaeda in Pakistan and the different ways the U.S. might help to address this growing threat.

The ability of aid agencies to adopt new technologies when combatting emergencies, resulted in the unlikely trio of “Flood, famine and mobile phones.” Please click the link to learn more about the arising phenomenon, brought to you by The Economist

At the halfway point of the MDG’s set in 2000 for 2015, The Economist gives an update on the status of the MDG’s, while exploring ways to tackle these goals with out a timeline. An article everyone should read, please click here! 

And following on the post below, here's an interesting idea coming out of John Edwards's campaign - it's called CITO, or the Counterterrorism and Intelligence Treaty Organization.

From Michael Jacobson in the Baltimore Sun, on this infamous day on the calendar, comes a call for vigorous engagement on the issue of terrorism by the United Nations. It's helpful to have it pointed out that transnational threats demand transnational responses.

The infrastructure challenges facing Africa are surely daunting; however, Ethan Zuckerman, a research fellow at the Center for Internet and Society at Harvard Law, believes Vodacom Congo with its "incremental infrastructure" might be on to something.

The infrastructure challenges facing Africa are surely daunting; however, Ethan Zuckerman, a research fellow at the Center for Internet and Society at Harvard Law, believes Vodacom Congo with its "incremental infrastructure" might be on to something.

The Economist declares Japan as the most innovative country in the world according to the Economist Intelligence Unit. To learn more and see the stats, please click here.

Despite the now-formalized connections among the bajillion people on social-networking sites like Facebook and MySpace, it seems we all still have about five close friends.

This piece by Dan Benjamin from the Brookings Institution (and, coincidentally enough, another one of our speakers at the October Overcoming Extremism: Protecting Civilians from Terrorist Violence conference) looks at a slightly different angle - converts to radical Islamism and its seemingly magnetic pull.

A New York Times article explains Orbitz.com's new service enabling travelers help other travelers learn of delays, avoid accidents and find the shortest security lines. To learn more click here.

Gearing up for this week's Iraq hearings with Gen. Petraeus, Amb. Crocker, etc? We definitely are and will be glued to the set, so to speak, as the week progresses. In the meantime, check out the WaPo's live video coverage here.

Ross Douthat, the Atlantic associate editor and the author of Privilege: Harvard and the Education of the Ruling Class writes an eye openeing article on the religious trends in America and Europe. He claims that while Europeans are increasingly religious, Americans have actually become more secular.

With great admiration, The Economist praises author, Paul Collier and his book, The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About it. Mr. Collier, an Oxford scholar for 30+ years, brings into question the full effects of aid on alleviating the situation, yet encourages aid in some regards.

PCR Project Co-Director Rick Barton's Wednesday testimony on provincial reconstruction teams was covered by Jim Glanz in the NY Times

The Atlantic takes a look at Pakistan after Musharraf in its October issue (subscription required to view the full article). Mentioned right up front is the half-day exercise that PCR put togther last fall on the future of Pakistan.

Standing on the USS Abraham Lincoln on May 1, 2003 President Bush proclaimed “Mission Accomplished.” Still, despite this announcement of an end to major combat operations in Iraq, the war has dragged on for over four more years. The political blunder highlights the challenges of conflict in the contemporary world, especially the problems of defining success. Dr.