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By John K. Warden

Russia and the United States have reached an “agreement in principle” on a new START.

According to some reports, the major issues have been worked out and we should expect an agreement soon.  As I wrote a couple weeks ago, the major hold-up in negotiations was verification details, specifically the sharing of telemetry data.  According to Jonathan Weisman at the Wall Street Journal, that and other disagreements were worked out in the last couple weeks:

The breakthrough on a follow-on treaty to the now-lapsed Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty came two weeks ago when National Security Adviser James Jones and Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, went to Moscow to work through two issues on verification, the sharing of data on missile flight tests and inspections at missile production facilities, White House officials said.
The deal was approved in principle last week during a phone conversation between Mr. Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
Under the agreement, the Russians will share flight-test data, something they had resisted as they develop more-modern ballistic missiles. But monitoring of a key ballistic-missile site in Russia, which ended in 2008, won't resume, according to officials familiar with the accord.

However, many are skeptical of the report.  After all, various Russian and American officials have said an agreement was “very close” and “nearing completion” for months now.  Is “agreement in principle” just another way of saying “almost there”?

After all, Weisman’s article and others quote officials on both sides saying that translating the agreement to treaty text could take months.  A Russian presidential aide said that it would be realistic to expect a signed agreement by March or April.

If in fact the major issues have been resolved, then the latest reports might mean more than “almost there.”  There has already been speculation about where the signing ceremony will take place, and a Russian lawmaker is planning on visiting the United States to begin coordinating the ratification effort.  These are signs that agreement on START is less a matter of if then when.

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PONI is happy to announce the first live debate of its 2010 series.   John Isaacs, Executive Director of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, will be debating Baker Spring, F.M. Kirby Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation on nuclear reductions.  The details are as follows: 

Date: Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Time: 6:00 pm - 8:00 pm

Location: CSIS (1800 K St NW) B1 Conference Center

Topic: Resolved: further reductions in the nuclear arsenal are in the national security interest of the United States.

 To RSVP for the event, contact Chris Jones via e-mail here or by phone at (202) 775-3234.  Seats will go quickly so RSVP as soon as possible.

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By Andrew St. Denis

Last Friday, PONI kicked off its 2010 Nuclear Scholars Initiative with a seminar on the Nuclear Posture Reviews, which have shaped not just U.S. nuclear policy, but also international perceptions of U.S. policy. Chaired by director Clark Murdock, the event featured discussions with National Defense University’s Elaine Bunn, the National Institute for Public Policy’s Keith Payne, and Amy Woolf of the Congressional Research Service. Ambassador Linton Brooks also joined in the seminar to provide insights from his long experience in the nuclear community.

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By John K. Warden

Last week, I used the leaked draft of the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) to predict the forthcoming Nuclear Posture Review (NPR).  This week, the final draft of the QDR was released on the DoD website.

The final document is, in many ways, similar to the draft.  It follows the same outline and, in some places, the paragraphs are unchanged.  However, in others, including many of the sections that discuss nuclear weapons, the document includes new language and ideas.

Sometimes, these changes appear cosmetic.  For example, while the final document does not include the sentence that explicitly connected the QDR and the NPR, it includes a footnote that serves the same purpose:

By congressional direction, DoD has conducted reviews of U.S. nuclear strategy and forces, ballistic missile defense, and space assets and operations in addition to the QDR. The findings of these reviews are being reported separately, but key insights were drawn on for this report.

There are other minor changes.  The first sentence of the paragraph that identifies nuclear proliferation as a key trend changed from:  “Of grave concern, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) undermines global security, further complicating efforts to sustain peace and prevent harmful arms races.” to “The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) continues to undermine global security, complicating efforts to sustain peace and prevent harmful arms races.”  Although “of grave concern” was removed, it would be reading too much into this change to conclude that the final document somehow deemphasizes nuclear proliferation.

However, in other areas the changes between the draft and the final QDR seem more important.  The section that highlights the importance of deterrence and ways the United States should continue to strengthen it includes significant changes.  Here’s the text from the draft:

By Chris Jones

The Hertog Global Strategy Initiative at Columbia has announced that the topic for the 2010 seminar (24 May-13 August) will be "Nuclear Proliferation and the Future of World Power." From the website:

Students in the program spend the first three weeks of the summer in “total immersion” training in nuclear strategy and the methods of international history. The following eight weeks are spent conducting independent and team projects. In August, the class reconvenes and participants present their research and produce a joint report. The program is intended to demonstrate the potential for collaborative historical research on critical issues in international affairs.

The faculty for the seminar includes:

The 2010 Initiative will be taught by Matthew Connelly, Professor of History at Columbia University, and Francis Gavin, Professor of International Affairs, University of Texas. They will be assisted in the classroom by a number of experts in the field, including world-class scholars and top government officials. Confirmed speakers and workshop participants include Graham Allison, Richard Betts, Hans Blix, Paul Bracken, John Lewis Gaddis, Robert Gallucci, Bonnie Jenkins, Robert Jervis, Henry Kissinger, Michael Levi, Scott Sagan, Etel Solingen, James Steinberg, Stephen Van Evera, and Philip Zelikow. The 2010 program will run from May 24 through August 13.
 

Application information is here.   Looks like a great program.