Vol. 11, No. 2 (July 2009)

President’s Cairo Speech Resonates in Southeast Asia

Sheldon W. Simon, Arizona State University

 The highlight of the quarter was maneuvering over disputed territory and economic claims in the South China Sea. Last quarter’s widely publicized face-off between the USNS Impeccable and harassing Chinese vessels was followed by incidents and commentary this quarter that underlined China’s view of an important U.S. role in challenging Chinese maritime claims in Southeast Asia. Chinese official statements and commentary and the actions by Chinese defense and security forces underlined a firm Chinese position in support of territorial and resource rights disputed by Southeast Asian neighbors and the U.S. Meanwhile, Chinese diplomacy picked up with economic support to Southeast Asian neighbors weathering the decline in trade and investment during the global recession along with visits and interaction with senior Southeast Asian leaders.

 Beijing and Taipei made significant progress in improving cross-Strait relations this quarter. In May, “Chinese Taipei” participated for the first time as an observer in the World Health Assembly. In April, the third round of ARATS-SEF talks produced three new agreements and an understanding to open Taiwan to investors from the mainland. These developments have been well received in Taiwan and have produced increasing de facto dealings between government officials from both sides. The precipitous decline in cross-Strait trade appears to be bottoming out and Beijing has taken steps to help Taiwan economically. Although there is still no indication that Beijing has reduced the military forces targeted at Taiwan, Hu Jintao has called for preparations concerning a peace agreement and confidence building measures.

North Korea - South Korea

 The second quarter of 2009 saw North Korea make headlines around the world, as it likes to do. The quarter was neatly, perhaps deliberately, bookended by missile launches. On April 5 after a two month build-up, while the world watched the preparations via spy satellites, the DPRK finally fired its long-awaited Taepodong-2 long-range missile. Ostensibly this was to put a satellite in orbit – although neither the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) nor anyone else has managed to observe any new object soaring across the heavens. Meanwhile, relations between the South and North continued to deteriorate as interaction became more caustic and the stakes higher. By the end of the quarter, the rest of the world watched again as the North launched more missiles.

China - Korea

 North Korea’s missile launch on April 5 and nuclear test on May 25 challenged the international community. For China, the tests highlighted the tensions between its emerging role as a global actor and a commitment to North Korea as an ally. On June 12, China voted in favor of UN Security Council Resolution 1874 condemning North Korea’s nuclear test. China now must decide whether it will actively implement the resolution. While China’s economic leverage with North Korea has grown, its primary concern is negatively impacting the political succession process now underway in Pyongyang. Meanwhile, economic policymakers in Seoul are seeking to expand South Korea’s share of the Chinese market in an effort to shore up the economy and benefit from Beijing’s massive stimulus plan. However, there is growing Sino-South Korean competition to secure overseas export markets and energy sources.