CSIS Survey Finds Robust Support for United States Presence in Asia

WASHINGTON, May 27, 2014 – The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Asia Team has completed a survey of strategic elites in Asia on the future of power and order in that region.

The survey of over 400 foreign policy experts demonstrated an expectation that China will be the most powerful country in Asia in 10 years (53 percent of respondents on average), but a belief that the United States will retain leadership in the region despite relative declining power (57 percent on average). Interestingly, a majority of Chinese experts agreed with this assessment. A plurality of respondents on average also felt that continued U.S. leadership would be in the best interests of their country, though only 11 percent of Chinese respondents agreed on this point. Reflecting this expectation, there was broad support in the region for the U.S. “rebalance to Asia,” but concern about how it was being implemented. Only Chinese respondents opposed the rebalance with 74 percent arguing that it was too confrontational to China.

Regional experts expressed modest expectations for community-building over the next decade and cited territorial disputes as the major obstacle to progress. When asked whether their country should resort to military force to reverse a hostile takeover of territory by the other side should diplomacy fail, over 80 percent of Chinese and Japanese respondents said yes. However, experts across the region cited financial crises as the greatest potential challenge to their interests, with territorial confrontations coming in second. There was broad support for advancing democratic norms such as free and fair elections and human rights in the region, with the exception of Chinese respondents and –surprisingly—the American respondents. This changing U.S. attitude was a significant shift from the last CSIS survey of regional strategic elites conducted in 2009.

A summary of key survey findings co-authored by Michael Green and Nick Szechenyi can be found here: http://cs.is/1jr676O

You can also find survey analysis by CSIS scholars in Asahi Shimbun, Joongang Ilbo, China Times, The Straits Times, Hindustan Times, and The Australian.

Project leaders will present survey findings and release a report at an event hosted by CSIS on June 5 from 12:00 pm-2:00 pm. A detailed agenda is forthcoming.