Program Related Publication Feeds

Afghanistan: The Failed Metrics of Ten Years of War

sherry — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The US has now been at war in Afghanistan for more than a decade, and is committed to stay through 2014 – with a possible advisory, aid, and funding presence that may extend to 2025. There still, however, are no convincing unclassified ways to measure progress in the war, or the trends in the fighting and level of violence.

The Crisis in Syria

sherry — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Q1: How has President Bashar al-Assad of Syria been able to remain in power in the wake of mounting unrest?

A1: A number of local and regional factors have and are likely to continue to enable Assad to hang on to power, at least in the short to medium term.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of China and Russia

ecurran — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

Iraq and the Challenge of Continuing Violence

sherry — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraq at the end of 2011 did not leave that country with a functioning democracy or effective governance; nor has it put an end to high levels of local violence, or ethnic and sectarian tension.

Key Official US and IAEA Statements About Iran’s Nuclear Programs

ian — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

There is a great deal of speculation about Iran’s nuclear programs that do not list sources or reflect the views of the US intelligence community.

The Real Issues in Afghanistan: Looking Beyond Undefined Policy Statements and Slogans

ian — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Secretary’s Panetta’s comment about ending the US combat role in Afghanistan in 2013, and focusing on building up Afghan forces, have triggered a predictable firestorm of criticism, guesswork, and speculation.

The “New” US Defense Strategy and the FY2013 US Defense Budget: The Details of What the Department Has Said to Date

ian — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

During the last month, the US Department of Defense has issued a series of announcements, and two white papers summarizing its “new” approach to strategy and the decisions it is making in its FY2013 budget submission to cut the size and cost of US military forces.

Measuring the Causes of Instability in the Middle East and North Africa

ian — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The Burke Chair at CSIS has developed a new report entitled The Causes of Instability in the Middle East and North Africa, which is available on the CSIS web site at:

http://csis.org/files/publication/120126_MENA_Stability_Slides.pdf

US and Iranian Strategic Competition In Sanctions, Energy, Arms Control, and Arms Transfers

sherry — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Tightening sanctions and Iran’s reactions have become a race against time. Every day brings a new event as the competition between the US and Iran plays out on a global level. The Burke Chair at CSIS is issuing a new report that puts this competition in a broader perspective, as part of its on-going series on US and Iranian strategic competition.

The FY2013 Defense Budget Submission: Strategy is Easy (and Usually Vacuous); Money is Hard (And Only Meaningful if Used Wisely)

ian — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The Obama Administration announced a new strategy early this month, but one in which it failed to provide meaningful details as to changes in deployments, force levels and plans, procurement plans, and spending.

Negotiating with the Taliban: Six Critical Conditions that Must Be Met to Avoid Another “Peace to End All Peace”

sherry — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

There is no doubt that successful peace talks would be the best possible outcome of the Afghan conflict for everyone involved. History is not, however, filled with best possible outcomes.

Transition in the Afghanistan-Pakistan War: How Does This War End?

ian — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The future of Afghanistan and Pakistan will be shaped by the way in which the US, NATO/ISAF, and major aid donors interact with the Afghan and Pakistani governments as they “transition” by withdrawing their forces and cutting their spending and aid.

Critical Issues for 2012

sherry — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The Afghan War At the End of 2011: A Status Report

sherry — Tue, 03 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

If the US and its allies are to achieve any meaningful form of victory in Afghanistan, they must make a realistic assessment of progress to date. They must develop and begin to implement realistic transition plans during the first half of this year. The Burke chair at CSIS has developed a two-part report that shows the progress made to date in the war.

Iran and the Threat to "Close" the Gulf

sherry — Fri, 30 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

There is nothing new about Iran’s threat to close the Gulf, but it does need to be put in context. Iran is reshaping its military forces to steadily increase the threat to Gulf shipping and shipping in the Gulf of Oman, It also is gradually increasing its ability to operate in the Indian Ocean.

The Broader Crisis in Iraq

ian — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

It is tempting to focus solely on the evolving political crisis and power struggle between Prime Minister Maliki and his opponents, but this is only part of the crisis in Iraq.

Iraq’s Broader Political and Governance Challenges

The Real Outcome of the Iraq War: US and Iranian Strategic Competition in Iraq

ian — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The events of the last few days have made it all too clear that the US celebrated the end of the Iraq War without any realism as to the impact of the war and US occupation or the fact that the real result has been to create a new theater of competition between the US and Iran.

The End of the War in Iraq: A Graphic Overview

ecurran — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The US has sharply cutback its reporting on the Iraq War since the spring of 2011. There are, however, still a number of sources that help put both the Iraq War and the current state of Iraq into perspective.

Instability in Syria

ian — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Syria’s stability and its role in regional security politics have become steadily more uncertain since early 2011. The country has now experienced eight months of popular protests. Despite a lack of political cohesion or unity of purpose among the country’s opposition forces, rural areas and smaller cities continue to experience increasingly armed unrest.

The "End" of the War in Iraq?

ian — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

It is all too clear that most Americans want the war in Iraq to be over. A Gallup poll in October found that 75% approved of President Obama’s withdrawal of U.S. troops, although Americans divide sharply by party: 96% Democrats, 77% independents, and 43% Republicans. There are good reasons for such feelings. In spite of U.S.

Iran and the Gulf Military Balance

ian — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

This report has been extensively updated in the wake of the IAEA’s November 8, 2011 report which provides the most detailed indicators that Iran is taking steps toward producing nuclear weapons.

The Outcome of Invasion: US and Iranian Strategic Competition in Iraq

sherry — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Iraq has become a key focus of the strategic competition between the United States and Iran. The history of this competition has been shaped by the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), the 1991 Gulf War, and the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. Since the 2003 war, both the US and Iran have competed to shape the structure of Post-Saddam Iraq’s politics, governance, economics, and security.

Pakistan Crisis and Its Impacts on the Afghan Transition

ian — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The outcome of latest US crisis with Pakistan is still unclear.

Defense Budget Cuts and Non-Traditional Threats to US Strategy: An Update

ian — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The deadline for the “Super Committee” to reach a deficit deal is rapidly approaching, with the cost of failure being devastating cuts in national security funding.

US and Iranian Strategic Competition in the Gulf States and Yemen

sherry — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

The Afghanistan-Pakistan War at the End of 2011

sherry — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The US faces hard decisions in the Afghanistan/Pakistan War that are growing steadily harder as the time before transition runs out, the US faces growing budget pressures, and the situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan becomes more unstable. The Burke Chair has prepared a report that assesses the chances for strategic success based on new US government, UN, and NGO reporting.

The National Security Implications of a Balanced Budget Amendment

ian — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The passage of the Budget Control Act (BCA) has broad implications for every program and agency that is funded through the Federal budget process, but consequences for the American defense and national security apparatus are both unique and important to analyze.

The New IAEA Report and Iran’s Evolving Nuclear and Missile Forces

ian — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Iran’s potential acquisition of nuclear weapons and the ability to arm its missiles and aircraft with such weapons represents the most serious risk that shapes US, Arab, Israeli and other international perceptions.

Rethinking the Arab "Spring": Stability and Security in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and the Rest of the MENA Region

ian — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

No one can ignore the short-term problems the political upheavals in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia create for each country. New leaders must be chosen and security systems must be changed. The problems involved can kill political, economic and demographic reforms before they even begin.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Peripheral Competition Involving Latin America and Africa

sherry — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

Defense Budget Cuts and Non-Traditional Threats to US Strategy: An Update

sherry — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The US Congress has passed budget legislation that threatens devastating cuts in national security funding if the Congress does not act to find meaningful solutions to the nation’s debt and deficit problems by the end of 2011. These cuts, however, are only one of several non-traditional threats to US security.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Gulf Military Balance

ian — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

Iran and the Gulf Military Balance

sherry — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Proxy Cold War in the Levant, Egypt and Jordan

sherry — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

Iraq and US Strategy in the Gulf: Shaping US Plans after Withdrawal

sherry — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

President Obama’s announcement of a withdrawal of all US combat forces from Iraq by the end of 2011 will result in a major power vacuum in the region – and the Middle East abhors a vacuum. Officials from Jordan, Israel, and Saudi Arabia have all previously expressed reservations about Iranian involvement in Iraq, and it is clear that this withdrawal will give Iran increased le

Iran’s Accelerating Military Competition with the US and Arab States – Chemical, Biological, and Nuclear Capabilities

ian — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Iran’s foiled assassination plot against Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the US, Adel al-Jubeir, raises questions about Iran’s judgment and which elements within the regime are in control of the country’s decision-making process. If successful, such an act could have lead the country into diplomatic isolation or war.

US Strategic Competition with Iran: The Assassination Plot

ian — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has long been the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move. Iran may now have radically changed the rules if Iran’s senior leadership can be tied to the involvement of members of the Al-Quds Force in a plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the US.

The Afghan War Ten Years On

sherry — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The end of the first decade of the Afghan War has not been ignored in the media, but it has been largely ignore at the policy level. It has almost dropped out of sight in terms of Presidential and Congressional attention, and seems to have little interest to most Republican Presidential candidates.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Sanctions game: Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change

sherry — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

US and Iranian Strategic Competition: Competition in Iraq

sherry — Tue, 27 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

Pakistan - Violence Versus Stability

ian — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Pakistan is passing through one of the most dangerous periods in its history. An assessment of the growing patterns of violence and instability indicate that it may be approaching a perfect storm of threats, including rising extremism, a failing economy, chronic underdevelopment, and an intensifying war, resulting in unprecedented political, economic, and social turmoil.

Afghanistan and Pakistan: Continuing Security Challenges For the United States

ian — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The US confronts a wide range of challenges if it is to win the Afghan conflict in any meaningful sense, and leave a stable Afghanistan and Pakistan:

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Competition Involving the EU, EU3, and non-EU European States

sherry — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

U.S. Policy after the UN Vote

sherry — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The coming vote on statehood for Palestine will be a tragedy. This will not be because the Palestinians do not deserve a state, but because yet another year will have passed in which all of the milestones on the road to peace will have been largely negative.

Iraq and US Strategy in the Gulf

ecurran — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

During the coming months, the US must reshape its strategy and force posture relative to Iraq and the Gulf States. It must take account of its withdrawal of most of its forces from Iraq, and whether or not it can give real meaning to the US-Iraqi Strategic Framework Agreement.

Competition in Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Pakistan

ian — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

The War in Afghanistan: The Real Lessons of the Attack in Kabul

ian — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

There is a growing tendency to cover the war in Afghanistan by chasing the headlines from event to event. The kind of coverage turns a tragic helicopter crash into a crisis, and does the same for a largely symbolic attack on the ISAF and Embassy compound in Kabul.

The Lessons and Challenges of September 2011 – the New "9/11"

sherry — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Every American has their own story about 9/11. Mine is that I live a mile from the Pentagon, and had a meeting there cancelled the night before the attack. I came into my office in Washington early, and saw the Twin towers collapse before the aircraft hit the Pentagon. I missed the actual attack, but not the smell of electrical fires in the building.

Afghanistan Win or Lose: Transition and the Resource Crisis

ecurran — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The US confronts a wide range of challenges if it is leave a stable Afghanistan and Pakistan, to win the Afghan conflict in any meaningful sense:

US and Chinese Cooperation in Counterterrorism in the Middle East and Central Asia

sherry — Mon, 29 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The United States and China do have many reasons to cooperate in counterterrorism, but they also have different political systems and different values. The United States sees some Uighur and Tibetan movements as legitimate political and protest efforts that China sees as threats to its security.