Program Related Publication Feeds

Instability in Syria

ian — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Syria’s stability and its role in regional security politics have become steadily more uncertain since early 2011. The country has now experienced eight months of popular protests. Despite a lack of political cohesion or unity of purpose among the country’s opposition forces, rural areas and smaller cities continue to experience increasingly armed unrest.

GCC Security, Risk Assessment, and U.S. Extended Deterrence

sherry — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The Burke chair has just published a new report entitled “GCC Security, Risk Assessment, and US Extended Deterrence” which is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/110202_GCC_Secur_US_Extended_Deter.pdf.

The Influence of Regional Military Threats on Israeli Security

amausner — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The beginning of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks highlights the uncertainties affecting Israel’s security – both at present and in the future. The Burke Chair has prepared a new analysis of the overall pattern of regional threats that affect Israel’s security interest, of which the peace talks are only part.

Strategic Competition With Iran: The Military Dimension

ian — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 00:00:00 -0400

Iranian Strategic Competition with the US: The Military Dimension

The Arab-Israeli Military Balance in 2010

amausner — Tue, 29 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0400

Major changes are taking place in the Arab-Israeli military balance.

Israel as a Strategic Liability?

ian — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0400

America’s ties to Israel are not based primarily on U.S. strategic interests. At the best of times, an Israeli government that pursues the path to peace provides some intelligence, some minor advances in military technology, and a potential source of stabilizing military power that could help Arab states like Jordan.

Options in Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Program

amausner — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0400

During the early days of his administration, President Obama had said he would give Iran until the end of 2009 to change their policy on nuclear weapons development. As reported by Reuters on Jan 29, 2009, the U.S.

Iran Status Report

amausner — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

US policy towards Iran requires more than dialogue. It requires careful consideration of Iran’s evolving military capabilities and the range of threats it can pose to its neighbors, the wider Middle East, and to the flow of world oil exports.

Iran's Political Future After Khamenei's Friday Prayer Endorsement of Ahmadinejad

sherry — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400

We need to be very careful not to rush out ahead of events in judging what is happening in Iran.

What Next With Iran?

sherry — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400

It is hard to counsel patience, particularly in a climate of artificial deadlines, instant media, and steadily larger gaggles of squawking heads. So far, however, President Obama has shown the right degree of restraint, while laying the groundwork to react as the outcome of events in Iran become clear enough to decide on the best policy.

Iran, Israel, and the Effects of Nuclear Conflict in the Middle East

amausner — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400

Much of the debate over proliferation focuses on the possession of nuclear weapons rather than their use in warfighting and their effects. History is a grim warning, however, that deterrence does not always work and rational bargaining often fails. Abdullah Toukan and Anthony H.

Gulf Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities

sherry — Fri, 22 May 2009 00:00:00 -0400

While much of the world’s attention has focused on Iran’s missile developments and possible nuclear capabilities. Yet this is only one of the risks that threaten the flow of petroleum products from the Gulf – a region with some 60% of the world’s proven conventional oil reserves and 40% of its natural gas.

Obama, Netanyahu, and the Future of U.S.-Israeli Relations

sherry — Fri, 15 May 2009 00:00:00 -0400

President Barack Obama’s meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raises some of the most serious issues in U.S.-Israeli relations. It is premature to judge how the Netanyahu government will deal with either the Arab-Israeli issue or Iran, but both could be major sources of tension if the two countries do not go deeper than their usual dialogue.

Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran's Nuclear Development Facilities

Mon, 16 Mar 2009 00:00:00 -0400

During the last several months, the Burke Chair has carried out a detailed examination of Iran’s programs involving missile and weapons of mass destruction. The key drafts involved are available on the CSIS web site at:
http://www.csis.org/burke/reports/
A final comprehensive report will be published this summer as CSIS book by the Praeger Press.

The "Gaza War"

Mon, 02 Feb 2009 00:00:00 -0500

One can argue whether the fighting between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is a "war" or should be seen as just one more tragic surge in violence in the decades-long struggle between Israel and

The War in Gaza

Fri, 09 Jan 2009 00:00:00 -0500

The Israeli-Hamas War, and there is little else that it can be called, has now lasted two weeks. Israeli jets have flown some 800 strike sorties, and the IDF has pushed deep into Gaza.

The Fighting in Gaza

Mon, 05 Jan 2009 00:00:00 -0500

The fighting in Gaza is already a major human tragedy for the Palestinians.

Israeli-Syrian Air and SAM Strength Analysis

Tue, 25 Nov 2008 00:00:00 -0500

The relative balance of Israeli and Syria air combat capabilities has long been a key factor shaping both the level of deterrence in the Arab-Israel conflict and the outcome of any conflict.

The Israeli and Syrian Conventional Military Balance

Tue, 25 Nov 2008 00:00:00 -0500

The armed forces of Israel and Syria have evolved in response to continued tension and the prospects for conflict between the two countries. This report summarizes the development of each country’s conventional military strengths and weaknesses in force strength, force quality, capabilities, and leadership.

The Israeli and Syrian Conventional Military Balance

Wed, 11 Jun 2008 00:00:00 -0400

The armed forces of Israel and Syria have evolved in response to continued tension and the prospects for conflict between the two countries.

Israeli and Syrian Weapons of Mass Destruction

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 00:00:00 -0400

Both Israel and Syria have long been involved in creating weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them.

The Lessons of the Israel-Hezbollah War

Wed, 12 Mar 2008 00:00:00 -0400

Beyond Annapolis

Mon, 03 Dec 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Iran, Israel, and Nuclear War

Mon, 19 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0500

The latest IAEA report on Iran again illustrates the risks of nuclear war in the Middle East.

Lessons of the 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah War

Wed, 14 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0500

The 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah War marked the third time in less than a quarter century that Israel conducted major military actions in Lebanon. As this study points out, however, it also marked the third time that Israel miscalculated the strategic consequences of intervention in Lebanon.

The Israeli "Nuclear Reactor" Strike and Syrian Weapons of Mass Destruction

Wed, 24 Oct 2007 00:00:00 -0400

The circumstances surrounding an Israeli strike on what may have been a Syrian nuclear reactor are still unclear. It is not yet certain that Syria was building a reactor, and if it were, what capacity it would have for producing fissile material, when it might have produced enough material for a weapon, and how Syria planned to deploy any nuclear capability it developed.

Israel and Syria

Wed, 15 Aug 2007 00:00:00 -0400

The Arab-Israeli military balance now consists of two largely separate balances: The first such balance is the balance between Israel and the Palestinians. Since 2000, this has been an asymmetric war that Israel has largely won. Its politics poison the region, and have led to a civil conflict among the Palestinians that may take years to resolve.

Summer Wars in Lebanon?

Fri, 22 Jun 2007 00:00:00 -0400

Lebanon is already involved in four potential struggles:

The Strategic Implications of the Palestinian Crisis

Wed, 20 Jun 2007 00:00:00 -0400

The conflict between Hamas and Fatah (and in reality the Palestinian Authority) seems to have effectively divided Gaza and the West Bank into two separate bodies where any political compromise will be hollow and at best cloak a somewhat less overt level of struggle. Arafat’s divide and rule tactics, Israel’s shattering of the Palestinian security forces, the failure of the pea

Warfighting and Proliferation in the Middle East

Tue, 17 Apr 2007 00:00:00 -0400

Key Actors in 2010-2020

Israeli and U.S. Strikes on Iran

Mon, 05 Mar 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Israel and the US differ over the timing and level of risk posed by Iran's nuclear efforts. The US sees a mature or serious Iranian nuclear threat as coming well after 2010. Israel claims to see it as coming as early as 2009 -- although much of this may be Israeli hype designed to push the US into diplomatic action, and military action if that fails.

Arab-Israeli Military Forces in an Era of Asymmetric Wars

Sat, 30 Sep 2006 00:00:00 -0400

The reality of the Arab-Israeli balance now consists of two subordinate balances: Israel versus Syria and Israel versus the Palestinians. This book analyzes these two balances in detail, as well as their impact on defense planning in each country and on the overall strategic risk to the region as a whole.

The Middle East Crisis: Six "Long Wars" and Counting

Fri, 04 Aug 2006 00:00:00 -0400

The Middle East is never a peaceful place, but even by regional standards, the US faces major problems in virtually every area. Even if one ignores the problems raised by enduring issues like energy, development, demographics, and normal politics and diplomacy, the US and its allies are now directly or indirectly involved in six long wars.

Qana and the Lessons for Modern War

Mon, 31 Jul 2006 00:00:00 -0400

Israel's Uncertain Military Performance and Strategic Goals in Lebanon

Tue, 25 Jul 2006 00:00:00 -0400

It is difficult to judge Israel's military performance in Lebanon at a distance. Too little data are as yet available, and reporting is necessarily impressionistic. So far, however, it does not seem particularly impressive either in terms of strategy or execution.

The Road to Nowhere: Everyone's Strategic Failures in Lebanon

Fri, 21 Jul 2006 00:00:00 -0400

No one can dismiss the role of luck, or the possibility of miracles, in war. No one can afford to count upon them. It is only luck and miracles, however, that are likely to give any side any kind of meaningful victory in Lebanon.

Iran's Support of the Hezbollah in Lebanon

Sat, 15 Jul 2006 00:00:00 -0400

Analysts and reporters need to be careful to stick to the facts in covering Iran's role in the current fighting. A number of sources — including Israeli officials and officers — have begun to use the Lebanon crisis to find new reasons to attack Iran, partly because of the nuclear issue and partly because it is now seen as Israel's most serious enemy.

Lebanese Security and the Hezbollah

Fri, 14 Jul 2006 00:00:00 -0400

Hezbollah has opened a dangerous second front in the Israeli-Palestinian war of attrition that began in September 2000. The attached analysis not only describes the nature of Hezbollah and its military capabilities, but the severe limits to the Lebanese Army and other divisions and problems within Lebanon.

Palestinian Forces

Thu, 09 Feb 2006 00:00:00 -0500

A new analysis by CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy Anthony Cordesman explains the military history and capability of Hamas and PIJ, and analyzes the trends in Palestinian Authority forces and other leading Palestinian militant forces. According to Dr.

The Zarqawi Attack on Jordan: A Single Point Does Not Make a Trend

Tue, 15 Nov 2005 00:00:00 -0500

The Israeli-Palestinian War

Tue, 01 Nov 2005 00:00:00 -0500

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is more than a local or regional dispute. Its ongoing nature increases the risk that the violence will spill over its present borders and contribute to both extremism and terrorism. While the Intifada from 1987 to 1993 was largely a popular uprising and political struggle, the more recent clash is a war between conventional and unconventional forces.

The Arab Israeli States: National Forces Developments and Trends

Tue, 29 Mar 2005 00:00:00 -0500

The “Arab-Israeli” states include Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria; and a Palestinian entity or proto-state. Their forces have shaped by six Arab-Israeli wars, which took place during in 1948, 1956, 1967, 1970, 1973, and 1982.

Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East: The Impact on The Regional Military Balance

Fri, 25 Mar 2005 00:00:00 -0500

Proliferation is one of the least understood aspects of the Middle East military balance, but it is also one of the most important. Conventional wars are certainly capable of destroying whole nations, particularly small ones like Israel, Jordan, and the emerging Palestinian entity.

The Middle East Military Balance: Definition, Regional Developments and Trends

Wed, 23 Mar 2005 00:00:00 -0500

The very nature of the military balance in the Middle East is experiencing massive changes. Some of these changes are the result of conflicts in the region. The US and British-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 removed Iraq – one of the region’s major military powers – from the balance, creating at least a temporary power vacuum in the Gulf.

Escalating to Nowhere: The Israeli-Palestinian War - The Outside Actors that Have Shaped the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Wed, 23 Feb 2005 00:00:00 -0500

In late September 2004, the Israeli-Palestinian War will enter its fifth year. The conflict that began in September 2000 is much more than an uprising. It is a low-intensity war, in which asymmetric warfare has replaced the peace process, and politics have become an extension of war by other means.

Escalating to Nowhere: The Israeli-Palestinian War - Fighting and Failed Peace Efforts

Wed, 23 Feb 2005 00:00:00 -0500

Escalating to Nowhere: The Israeli-Palestinian War - The Course of the Conflict in Gaza

Wed, 23 Feb 2005 00:00:00 -0500

Escalating to Nowhere: The Israeli-Palestinian War - Introduction

Thu, 13 Jan 2005 00:00:00 -0500

Escalating to Nowhere: The Israeli-Palestinian War - From Peace to War: Land for Peace or Settlements for War?

Thu, 13 Jan 2005 00:00:00 -0500

Escalating to Nowhere: The Israeli-Palestinian War - From Peace to War: Terrorism for Settlements

Thu, 13 Jan 2005 00:00:00 -0500