Program Related Publication Feeds

The Real Issues in Afghanistan: Looking Beyond Undefined Policy Statements and Slogans

ian — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

Secretary’s Panetta’s comment about ending the US combat role in Afghanistan in 2013, and focusing on building up Afghan forces, have triggered a predictable firestorm of criticism, guesswork, and speculation.

Transition in the Afghanistan-Pakistan War: How Does This War End?

ian — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 00:00:00 -0500

The future of Afghanistan and Pakistan will be shaped by the way in which the US, NATO/ISAF, and major aid donors interact with the Afghan and Pakistani governments as they “transition” by withdrawing their forces and cutting their spending and aid.

Pakistan Crisis and Its Impacts on the Afghan Transition

ian — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The outcome of latest US crisis with Pakistan is still unclear.

Pakistan - Violence Versus Stability

ian — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Pakistan is passing through one of the most dangerous periods in its history. An assessment of the growing patterns of violence and instability indicate that it may be approaching a perfect storm of threats, including rising extremism, a failing economy, chronic underdevelopment, and an intensifying war, resulting in unprecedented political, economic, and social turmoil.

Afghanistan and Pakistan: Continuing Security Challenges For the United States

ian — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The US confronts a wide range of challenges if it is to win the Afghan conflict in any meaningful sense, and leave a stable Afghanistan and Pakistan:

Competition in Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Pakistan

ian — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

The War in Afghanistan: The Real Lessons of the Attack in Kabul

ian — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 00:00:00 -0400

There is a growing tendency to cover the war in Afghanistan by chasing the headlines from event to event. The kind of coverage turns a tragic helicopter crash into a crisis, and does the same for a largely symbolic attack on the ISAF and Embassy compound in Kabul.

U.S. Casualties in Afghanistan: The Need for Perspective

ian — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0400

There are good reasons to question whether we should stay in Afghanistan.

Rethinking a Resource-Based Strategy

ian — Tue, 12 Jul 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The US defense community is only beginning to address the full implications of the challenges it faces in terms of international economic competition and shrinking budgets.

Transitioning to a New Strategy: 2009-2010

ian — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair has prepared a seven-part analytic overview of unclassified metrics, and of how their current content relates to the challenges in policy, plans, resources, and management of the war that now reduce the prospects of victory.

The War in Afghanistan: A Race Against Time, Resources, And The Enemy

sherry — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair has prepared a report based on a recent trip to Afghanistan, and discussions with US officials and commanders. The full report is entitled The War in Afghanistan: A Race Against Time, Resources, and the Enemy. It is available on the CSIS web site at:

The Failures That Shaped (and Almost Lost) the Afghan War

ian — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Pakistan: Violence vs. Stability

mentman — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Executive Summary

As the events surrounding the death of Osama Bin Laden make all too clear, Pakistan is passing through one of the most dangerous periods of instability in its history. This instability goes far beyond Al Qa’ida, the Taliban, and the war in Afghanistan. A net assessment of the patterns of violence and stability indicate that Pakistan is approaching a perfect storm of threats, including rising extremism, a failing economy, chronic underdevelopment, and an intensifying war, resulting in unprecedented political, economic and social turmoil.

The Afghan War and the Problem of Pakistan

ian — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Pakistan presents a critical challenge to the United States in fighting the war in Afghanistan. The US, ISAF, and Afghan forces are making significant tactical progress, and realistic transition planning is beginning for the first time.

Afghanistan and the Uncertain Metrics of Progress: Part 6: Victory is Possible but "Fragile and Reversible"

mentman — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Current Tactical Gains, Uncertain Strategic Value

Afghanistan and the Uncertain Metrics of Progress: The Status of the War in the Spring of 2011

mentman — Tue, 10 May 2011 00:00:00 -0400

The war in Afghanistan is now approaching its tenth year. In spite of that fact, the US, allied countries, ISAF, and the UN have failed to develop adequate unclassified reporting on the progress of the war, to provide meaningful transparency on the problems and challenge it faces, and to provide a clear and detailed plan for the future.

The Death of Osama Bin Laden, and the Shape of Threats to Come

mentman — Mon, 02 May 2011 00:00:00 -0400

No American -- or anyone else one who opposes violent, murderous terrorism -- can see Osama Bin Laden’s death as anything but just retribution. We need to be very cautious, however, in assuming that it will now damage Al Qa’ida and other Islamist extremist networks, or that we can predict the political and strategic consequences.

The Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review (QDDR)

amausner — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0500

There are times to be polite about a dismal bureaucratic failure. Wartime is not one of them.

America’s Wars in Afghanistan, Pakistan, And Iraq

amausner — Mon, 13 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0500

Attached at http://csis.org/files/publication/101213_Iraq_and_Afghan_Talk_Edited.pdf is a speech given to the discusses the Industrial College of the Armed Forces on December 10th, 2010. It discisses the December Review from a grand strategic viewpoint, as well as the conflict in Iraq. These issue

The War in Afghanistan

amausner — Thu, 02 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0500

Recent reporting by the NATO Training Mission in Afghanistan (NTM-A) and the Department of Defense provides added insight into how the course of the fighting tracks with the development of Afghan security forces.

Private Security Forces in Afghanistan and Iraq: The Potential Impact of the Montreux Document

ian — Wed, 17 Nov 2010 00:00:00 -0500

The role of private security companies has been a constant source of concern and trouble in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Such forces are essential in nations which do not yet have adequate security forces or a rule of law but can quickly become a “necessary evil” -- or an “evil necessity” – if they do not have the proper controls.

Afghan National Security Forces

jdunton — Wed, 17 Nov 2010 00:00:00 -0500

President Barack Obama’s new strategy for Afghanistan is critically dependent on the transfer of security responsibility to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). His speech announcing this strategy called for the transfer to begin in mid-2011.

Afghan and Iraqi Metrics and the IED Threat

ian — Wed, 10 Nov 2010 00:00:00 -0500

The Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization (JIEDDO) recently issued updated information on the IED threat in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Burke Chair has prepared short analyses of the trends in the data for both Iraq and Afghanistan, which are now available on the CSIS web site.

Afghanistan and the December Review

amausner — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 00:00:00 -0400

One should never judge whether the glass is half empty or half full while it is still being poured. The review of progress in Afghanistan due in December 2010 is definitely a case of prematurely assessing the situation and can provide only a limited picture of whether the new strategy will work.

The Uncertain Cost of War(s)

amausner — Tue, 12 Oct 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The US must make hard choices over the coming year. One will be whether to try turn largely tactical victories in the Iraq War into lasting grand strategic gains by supporting an enduring strategic partnership with Iraq after US forces withdraw at the end of 2011.

Putting the Air War in Pakistan in Perspective

amausner — Wed, 06 Oct 2010 00:00:00 -0400

It is scarcely a secret that the US is fighting an air war in Pakistan at at least four different levels. It is using unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) to support US forces in “hot pursuit” in the border area. It is using them to attack Taliban and other insurgent forces near the border to limit their capability to operate in Afghanistan.

The Afghan Elections: Another Milestone on the Road to Nowhere?

ian — Tue, 21 Sep 2010 00:00:00 -0400

Democracy is not a religion, and elections are not a religious festival. Democracy – or to be more precise – representative government, is a potential way of improving the quality of governance, the services it provides, security, and national stability.

Afghanistan: A Progress Report

ian — Wed, 15 Sep 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair has developed a new, three-part analysis of progress in the Afghan War. This analysis uses maps, graphs, and presentations by ISAF and other organizations to track the key developments in the war, and the key challenges that must still be met.

How America Corrupted Afghanistan: Time to Look in the Mirror

ian — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The U.S. cannot ignore Afghan corruption and hope for any kind of victory or meaningful end state in the Afghan conflict. The fact remains, however, that corruption is only one of the problems that the U.S. and its allies must address in an active war zone, and anti-corruption drives are largely a triumph of hope over experience in societies with a history of systematic corruption.

Reforming ANSF Metrics

amausner — Wed, 11 Aug 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The new Commanders Unit Assessment Tool (CUAT) for measuring the capabilities of the ANSF represents a significant improvement over the old Capability Milestone (CM) system. The old system was too rigid, too narrowly quantitative, and measured only a handful of relatively unimportant metrics.

The Need for Public Transparency and Integrity

amausner — Mon, 02 Aug 2010 00:00:00 -0400

So far, the main impact of the Wikileaks release of some 90,000 classified documents on Afghanistan has been a fruitless search for new headlines and some form of “smoking gun” that reveals a secret no one has known in the past. The net result has been an almost relentless effort to spin largely historical documents into the kind of revelations they don’t provide.

If Petraeus and Eikenberry Can Win

amausner — Wed, 14 Jul 2010 00:00:00 -0400

It may be interesting to propose new strategies for the war in Afghanistan, but it is also pointless. The change in the military command in Afghanistan has occurred at a time where the campaign is already underway, and where present strategy has to work, or else the next set of decisions will be the tactics of how to leave.

The Afghan War: A Campaign Overview

ian — Wed, 23 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0400

It is all too easy to forget that the real issue in Afghanistan is whether the new strategy is working, and whether the war can be won. Previous Burke Chair reports have focused on these issues, but there have been major new insights in the reporting coming out of ISAF that update the metrics in these reports.

Metrics and Reality

Realism in Afghanistan: Rethinking an Uncertain Case for the War

ian — Wed, 16 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0400

There is nothing more tragic than watching beautiful theories being assaulted by gangs of ugly facts. It is time, however, to be far more realistic about the war in Afghanistan. It may well still be winnable, but it is not going to be won by denying the risks, the complexity, and the time that any real hope of victory will take.

Reforming ANSF Metrics

amausner — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The development of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) is one of the most critical aspects of the war. NATO/ISAF simply cannot bring this war to a successful conclusion without transitioning responsibility for security to the Afghans.

The Afghan War: Metrics, Narratives, and Winning the War

amausner — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0400

Finding the Path to Victory: The Afghan Campaign and the Tools Needed to Win It

The Afghan War: A Campaign Overview

amausner — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0400

Finding the Path to Victory: The Afghan Campaign and the Tools Needed to Win It

The Afghan War

amausner — Mon, 24 May 2010 00:00:00 -0400

No one can visit Afghanistan without seeing both the threat and the progress. After eight years of failing to respond, the US, its allies, and the Afghan government are finally preparing for the kind of campaign that might win the war. The necessary resources are gradually being put in place.

Shaping the War in Afghanistan

amausner — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0400

It has taken some six months, but the Department of Defense has now begun to issue meaningful and up-to-date data on both the course of the Afghan conflict and the implementation of the new strategy. This reporting includes a range of tables, maps, and charts (“metrics”) that cover many of the most important aspects of the War.

Agriculture, Food, and Poverty in Afghanistan

amausner — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0400

It has taken nearly eight years for the member countries in ISAF, and International Aid donors, to realize just how critical Afghanistan’s agricultural sector is to many of its people.

Afghanistan and Obama

amausner — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0400

It has been over a year since President Obama announced the outline of a new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, and well over half a year since the appoint of General McChrystal and Ambassador Eikenberry has led to newefforts to define and implement that strategy in practical terms.

Shaping the War in Afghanistan

ian — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0400

As General McChrystal has stated, the steady deterioration that has taken place since 2003 seems to have halted.

New Reports on International Cooperation in Counterterrorism

ian — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0400

No nation can deal the threat of terrorism without cooperation from other states and international organizations. NATO is hold an International Symposium of Counterterrorism in Ankara on March 15th-16th, and the Burke Chair at CSIS has developed several papers and presentations for this conference.

Afghanistan Where Things Stand

ian — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0500

This is an in-depth analysis of the results of the ABC News' fifth national public opinion poll in Afghanistan, conducted Dec. 11-23, 2009, via face-to-face interviews with a random national sample of 1,534 Afghan adults in all 34 of the country's provinces.

Shape, Clear, Hold, and Build: The Full Metrics of the Afghan War

amausner — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0500

The "metrics" of the Afghan War are changing. As General McChrystal has stated, the steady deterioration that has taken place since 2003 seems to have halted. ISAF and the Afghan government have begun to implement the a strategy, new ISAF and Afghan resources are being deployed, and a more integrated civil-military effort is just beginning to take place in the field.

Afghan Metrics

amausner — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 00:00:00 -0500

Nine months after President Obama announced a new strategy in Afghanistan, the US still seems undecided as to how to actually shape and implement that strategy and how to measure its success. President Obama may have made his decisions, but it is far from clear that his Administration has agreed on how to act upon them, or has the right mix of civil-military capabilities to do so.

The New "War on Terrorism"

amausner — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 00:00:00 -0500

Few talk today about the “Global War on Terrorism,” and few should. The phrase was always too broad and too ambiguous, and it implied some kind of unity in the threat that never existed. It is important, however, to look beyond today’s headlines about Yemen and consider the broader range of threats the US now faces on a regional basis.

Shaping Afghan National Security Forces

ian — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 00:00:00 -0500

President Obama has announced a new strategy for Afghanistan whose success is dependent upon beginning the transfer of responsibility for Afghan security to the Afghani national security forces (ANSF) in mid-2011. The Burke Chair is issuing a new report that suggests this is a far more difficult challenge than many realize.

Shape, Clear, Hold, and Build: The Uncertain Metrics of the Afghan War

ian — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 00:00:00 -0500

The Afghan and Pakistan conflicts are remarkably complex wars where few understand the trends that have shaped the crisis the President referred to in his speech, or the larger forces at work in the region. The Burke Chair has developed an unclassified briefing that summarizes these trends in graphic and map form.

Obama’s New Strategy in Afghanistan

ian — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:00:00 -0500

One must be careful as pundits rush to praise or criticize President Obama’s speech and his decisions regarding Afghanistan and Pakistan. It takes no great vision to predict that much of their commentary will be partisan, conceptual, and largely speculative.