Program Related Publication Feeds

Afghanistan and the Uncertain Metrics of Progress: Part 6: Victory is Possible but "Fragile and Reversible"

mentman — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Current Tactical Gains, Uncertain Strategic Value

The Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review (QDDR)

amausner — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0500

There are times to be polite about a dismal bureaucratic failure. Wartime is not one of them.

Afghanistan and the December Review

amausner — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 00:00:00 -0400

One should never judge whether the glass is half empty or half full while it is still being poured. The review of progress in Afghanistan due in December 2010 is definitely a case of prematurely assessing the situation and can provide only a limited picture of whether the new strategy will work.

Putting the Air War in Pakistan in Perspective

amausner — Wed, 06 Oct 2010 00:00:00 -0400

It is scarcely a secret that the US is fighting an air war in Pakistan at at least four different levels. It is using unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) to support US forces in “hot pursuit” in the border area. It is using them to attack Taliban and other insurgent forces near the border to limit their capability to operate in Afghanistan.

Reforming ANSF Metrics

amausner — Wed, 11 Aug 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The new Commanders Unit Assessment Tool (CUAT) for measuring the capabilities of the ANSF represents a significant improvement over the old Capability Milestone (CM) system. The old system was too rigid, too narrowly quantitative, and measured only a handful of relatively unimportant metrics.

The Need for Public Transparency and Integrity

amausner — Mon, 02 Aug 2010 00:00:00 -0400

So far, the main impact of the Wikileaks release of some 90,000 classified documents on Afghanistan has been a fruitless search for new headlines and some form of “smoking gun” that reveals a secret no one has known in the past. The net result has been an almost relentless effort to spin largely historical documents into the kind of revelations they don’t provide.

If Petraeus and Eikenberry Can Win

amausner — Wed, 14 Jul 2010 00:00:00 -0400

It may be interesting to propose new strategies for the war in Afghanistan, but it is also pointless. The change in the military command in Afghanistan has occurred at a time where the campaign is already underway, and where present strategy has to work, or else the next set of decisions will be the tactics of how to leave.

Reforming ANSF Metrics

amausner — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The development of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) is one of the most critical aspects of the war. NATO/ISAF simply cannot bring this war to a successful conclusion without transitioning responsibility for security to the Afghans.

The Afghan War: Metrics, Narratives, and Winning the War

amausner — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0400

Finding the Path to Victory: The Afghan Campaign and the Tools Needed to Win It

The Afghan War: A Campaign Overview

amausner — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0400

Finding the Path to Victory: The Afghan Campaign and the Tools Needed to Win It

The Afghan War

amausner — Mon, 24 May 2010 00:00:00 -0400

No one can visit Afghanistan without seeing both the threat and the progress. After eight years of failing to respond, the US, its allies, and the Afghan government are finally preparing for the kind of campaign that might win the war. The necessary resources are gradually being put in place.

Shaping the War in Afghanistan

amausner — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0400

It has taken some six months, but the Department of Defense has now begun to issue meaningful and up-to-date data on both the course of the Afghan conflict and the implementation of the new strategy. This reporting includes a range of tables, maps, and charts (“metrics”) that cover many of the most important aspects of the War.

Afghanistan and Obama

amausner — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 00:00:00 -0400

It has been over a year since President Obama announced the outline of a new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, and well over half a year since the appoint of General McChrystal and Ambassador Eikenberry has led to newefforts to define and implement that strategy in practical terms.

New Reports on International Cooperation in Counterterrorism

ian — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0400

No nation can deal the threat of terrorism without cooperation from other states and international organizations. NATO is hold an International Symposium of Counterterrorism in Ankara on March 15th-16th, and the Burke Chair at CSIS has developed several papers and presentations for this conference.

Determining the Real Results of the Iraqi Election

amausner — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0500

Iraq has accomplished a milestone in holding a true national election in which every major ethnic group and sect took part. At the same time, there is good reason for caution. It is all too easy to congratulate a nation on its elections, and to forget that even the best election is meaningless unless it is followed by effective political leadership and effective governance.

Shape, Clear, Hold, and Build: The Full Metrics of the Afghan War

amausner — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0500

The "metrics" of the Afghan War are changing. As General McChrystal has stated, the steady deterioration that has taken place since 2003 seems to have halted. ISAF and the Afghan government have begun to implement the a strategy, new ISAF and Afghan resources are being deployed, and a more integrated civil-military effort is just beginning to take place in the field.

How the US Must Expand and Redefine International Cooperation in Fighting Terrorism

amausner — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 00:00:00 -0500

As Americans we naturally focus on the most direct threats to the United States, and what all too many in the West have seen as a clash between civilizations. It is important, however, to keep what is happening in perspective.

The New "War on Terrorism"

amausner — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 00:00:00 -0500

Few talk today about the “Global War on Terrorism,” and few should. The phrase was always too broad and too ambiguous, and it implied some kind of unity in the threat that never existed. It is important, however, to look beyond today’s headlines about Yemen and consider the broader range of threats the US now faces on a regional basis.

The Afghan Strategy Checklist

amausner — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 00:00:00 -0500

President Obama must now make a decision that will define his presidency. President Obama will have to take personal responsibility for the outcome of the war in Afghanistan, betting his historical reputation and second term on the outcome.

Afghan National Security Forces

amausner — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:00:00 -0400

Afghan National Security forces: Forging the Right Key to Victory

Iraq: Security and the Challenges of Lasting "Victory"

amausner — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:00:00 -0400

The Changing Challenge to Iraqi Security

US Strategy in Afghanistan

amausner — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 00:00:00 -0400

The last few weeks have done at least as much to reveal the critical weaknesses in US strategic thinking as they have done to clarify them.

Iraqi Trends and Afghan Resources

amausner — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair at CSIS is issuing two new reports on the Iraq and Afghan Wars.

The Iraq report Recent Trends in the Iraq War: Maps and Graphs can be downloaded here.

Shape, Clear, Hold, and Build: "The Uncertain Lessons of the Afghan & Iraq Wars"

ian — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 00:00:00 -0400

The US is losing the war in Afghanistan, and we risk losing the gains we have made in Iraq, largely as a result of our own mistakes. After eight years of war, the US is still seeking to learn how to address the problems of armed nation building.

Shape, Clear, Hold, and Build

amausner — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 00:00:00 -0400

(Speech given at the Cosmos Club on September 24, 2009)

We face a crisis in two wars. The US is losing the war in Afghanistan and we risk losing the gains we have made in Iraq, largely as a result of our own mistakes. After eight years of war the US is still seeking to learn how to address the problems of armed nation building.

The Levin "Plan"

amausner — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 00:00:00 -0400

The United States and its allies face critical challenges in Afghanistan. Most of these are self-inflicted by eight years of failing to properly resource the war. The U.S.

Resourcing For Defeat

amausner — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 00:00:00 -0400

The United States is now losing the war in Afghanistan, and is failing to consolidate its victory in Iraq. Reversing this situation requires changes in strategy, but it also requires significant additional resources.

Gulf Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities

amausner — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

While much of the world has focused on Iran’s missile developments, and possible nuclear capabilities, this is only one of the risks that threaten the flow of petroleum products from the Gulf – a region with some 60% of the world’s proven conventional oil reserves and 40% of its natural gas.

The Afghan War

amausner — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

The Afghan-Pakistan conflict is a complex conflict that covers two countries and has ideological, political, governance, economic, military, and security dimensions that are extremely difficult to measure and portray in summary form.

Legitimacy and the Afghan Elections

amausner — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

Shape, Clear, Hold, and Build

amausner — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

The US experience in the Afghan and Iraq Wars is scarcely over. It has, however, already produced a wide range of lessons. Some are narrow and apply largely at the tactical or technical level.

The New Metrics of Afghanistan

amausner — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

No one who works with the unclassified data on Afghanistan can fail to be aware of how poor and contradictory much of that data now are. In general, no NATO/ISDAF government – including the United States – has yet provided an honest or meaningful picture of the war.

Resourcing for Defeat

sherry — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

Iraq: A Time to Stay?

amausner — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

There may well be a case for accelerating some aspects of the US military withdrawal from Iraq. The present plan has an insurance plan built into the withdrawal schedule. It delays the start of further major reductions until after the Iraqi national election in early 2010, and then rushes them out before August. So far, things have gone better in Iraq than some anticipated.

Iraq’s Fracture Lines

amausner — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0400

There may well be a case for accelerating some aspects of the US military withdrawal from Iraq. The present plan has an insurance factor built in to the withdrawal schedule. It delays the start of major further reductions until after the Iraqi national election in early 2010, and then rushes them out before August. So far, things have gone better in Iraq than some anticipated.

Afghan National Security Forces: Shaping The Path To Victory

amausner — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0400

The Afghanistan Campaign: Can We Win?

amausner — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0400

The Dynamics of the "AfPak" Conflict: Metrics and Status Report

ian — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0400

The Afghan-Pakistan War

sherry — Wed, 20 May 2009 00:00:00 -0400

President Obama and top US officials have made it clear that the United States is not winning in Afghanistan. Put differently, the United States and its allies are winning at the level of tactical military encounters, but they are losing in political terms and in terms of Taliban and Jihadist influence and control.

The Afghan-Pakistan War

Thu, 26 Mar 2009 00:00:00 -0400

New NATO/ISAF reporting, which maps and charts the course of the war in Afghanistan, is now available.

Iraqi Security and "Hearts and Minds"

Thu, 19 Mar 2009 00:00:00 -0400

One problem with even the best polls is that users tend to focus on the summary results and not the details.

The Afghan-Pakistan Conflict

Tue, 17 Mar 2009 00:00:00 -0400

The Afghan-Pakistan war has not been a “forgotten war,” but it has been a war that the United States has allowed to slip from apparent victory into serious crisis.

The Iraq War

Wed, 18 Feb 2009 00:00:00 -0500

The debate over the impact of U.S. withdrawals from Iraq depends heavily on just how much progress has been made in defeating al Qaeda in Iraq and in maintaining relative stability.

The Afghan-Pakistan War

Wed, 11 Feb 2009 00:00:00 -0500

As Defense Secretary Robert Gates has recently testified, the Afghan-Pakistan War is reaching a crisis point.

The "Gaza War"

Mon, 02 Feb 2009 00:00:00 -0500

One can argue whether the fighting between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is a "war" or should be seen as just one more tragic surge in violence in the decades-long struggle between Israel and

Losing The Afghan-Pakistan War?

Tue, 21 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0400

The situation in Afghanistan has been deteriorating for nearly half a decade, and is now reaching a crisis level.

Follow the Money

Mon, 22 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0400

Most of the literature on the cost of the Iraq War, Afghan War, and “war on terrorism” focuses on the burden these wars place on the federal budget and the US economy.

U.S. Security Interests After Musharraf

Thu, 21 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0400

The United States cannot expect Pakistanis to act on the basis of US interests, as distinguished from those of Pakistan.

Sadr and the Mahdi Army

Mon, 04 Aug 2008 00:00:00 -0400

Iraq still faces three major internal security risks: First, the resurgence of Al Qa’ida in Iraq; second, the risk that ethnic or sectarian tensions could turn violent, rather than be solved

The Iraq War

Thu, 10 Jul 2008 00:00:00 -0400

The Burke Chair has developed a major update to its comprehensive briefing on key developments in the fighting, drawing on material provided by the Multinational Force- Iraq (MNF-I), the Department