Program Related Publication Feeds

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of China and Russia

ecurran — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

Key Official US and IAEA Statements About Iran’s Nuclear Programs

ian — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:00:00 -0500

There is a great deal of speculation about Iran’s nuclear programs that do not list sources or reflect the views of the US intelligence community.

The Real Outcome of the Iraq War: US and Iranian Strategic Competition in Iraq

ian — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The events of the last few days have made it all too clear that the US celebrated the end of the Iraq War without any realism as to the impact of the war and US occupation or the fact that the real result has been to create a new theater of competition between the US and Iran.

Iran and the Gulf Military Balance

ian — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

This report has been extensively updated in the wake of the IAEA’s November 8, 2011 report which provides the most detailed indicators that Iran is taking steps toward producing nuclear weapons.

The New IAEA Report and Iran’s Evolving Nuclear and Missile Forces

ian — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Iran’s potential acquisition of nuclear weapons and the ability to arm its missiles and aircraft with such weapons represents the most serious risk that shapes US, Arab, Israeli and other international perceptions.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Peripheral Competition Involving Latin America and Africa

sherry — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Gulf Military Balance

ian — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

Iran’s Accelerating Military Competition with the US and Arab States – Chemical, Biological, and Nuclear Capabilities

ian — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Iran’s foiled assassination plot against Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the US, Adel al-Jubeir, raises questions about Iran’s judgment and which elements within the regime are in control of the country’s decision-making process. If successful, such an act could have lead the country into diplomatic isolation or war.

US Strategic Competition with Iran: The Assassination Plot

ian — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has long been the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move. Iran may now have radically changed the rules if Iran’s senior leadership can be tied to the involvement of members of the Al-Quds Force in a plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the US.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition

ian — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0400

US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, but a game where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move.

Iran’s Accelerating Military Competition with the US and Arab States – Part One

ecurran — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 00:00:00 -0400

Iran’s Accelerating Military Competition with the US and Arab States – Part One

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Iran’s Perceptions of its Internal Developments

ecurran — Tue, 17 May 2011 00:00:00 -0400

With the assistance of Adam Seitz of the Marine Corps University, the Burke Chair has compiled a series of chronological reports that focus on Iranian perceptions of national security and assess Iran’s intentions concerning competition with the US. A link to the reports on Iran’s social and domestic political developments can be found here:

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition

ian — Tue, 29 Mar 2011 00:00:00 -0400

On Jan. 12, 2011, the Fars News Agency released a report in which the commander-in-chief of Iran’s army, Brigadier General Attaollah Salehi, made revealing statements regarding the role of asymmetric warfare in his country’s military doctrine. General Salehi was extensively quoted, stating that,

GCC Security, Risk Assessment, and U.S. Extended Deterrence

sherry — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The Burke chair has just published a new report entitled “GCC Security, Risk Assessment, and US Extended Deterrence” which is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/110202_GCC_Secur_US_Extended_Deter.pdf.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition

amausner — Mon, 06 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0500

The current strategic landscape in the Gulf is shaped by a competition between Iran, Iraq, the US, and the individual Southern Gulf states for influence in the military, political, and economic realms. Iran is making broad efforts to expand its influence over the entire Gulf, as well as to deter US military action, reduce US influence, and establish itself as the dominant power in the reg

Iran, Iraq, and the Changing Face of Defense Cooperation in the Gulf

amausner — Mon, 01 Nov 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The Southern Gulf states, the region, and the US all face a rapidly changing threat environment in the Gulf, and a sharply rising need for defense cooperation. These needs, and the changes in threat and military balance that shape them, are described in detail in a new analysis developed by the Arleigh A.

Strategic Competition With Iran: The Military Dimension

ian — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 00:00:00 -0400

Iranian Strategic Competition with the US: The Military Dimension

Options in Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Program

amausner — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0400

During the early days of his administration, President Obama had said he would give Iran until the end of 2009 to change their policy on nuclear weapons development. As reported by Reuters on Jan 29, 2009, the U.S.

Iran’s Evolving Threat

amausner — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 00:00:00 -0500

Iran’s search for nuclear weapons capabilities is only one part of a much broader set of military efforts, and a much broader competition with its neighbors and the West. There is no doubt that a “nuclear” Iran could be a major new source of instability in an already all too troubled region, but this is only one part of the problem.

Gulf Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities

amausner — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

While much of the world has focused on Iran’s missile developments, and possible nuclear capabilities, this is only one of the risks that threaten the flow of petroleum products from the Gulf – a region with some 60% of the world’s proven conventional oil reserves and 40% of its natural gas.

GCC - Iran: Operational Analysis of Air, SAM and TBM Forces

amausner — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently stated that the U.S. will not allow the Gulf Region to be dominated by a hegemonic Iran, and that an Iran in possession of nuclear weapons is unacceptable. If Iran continues to pursue a nuclear weapon program then the U.S. will likely arm its allies in the region, extending a defense umbrella over the Gulf.

Iran Status Report

amausner — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

US policy towards Iran requires more than dialogue. It requires careful consideration of Iran’s evolving military capabilities and the range of threats it can pose to its neighbors, the wider Middle East, and to the flow of world oil exports.

Iran's Political Future After Khamenei's Friday Prayer Endorsement of Ahmadinejad

sherry — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400

We need to be very careful not to rush out ahead of events in judging what is happening in Iran.

What Next With Iran?

sherry — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400

It is hard to counsel patience, particularly in a climate of artificial deadlines, instant media, and steadily larger gaggles of squawking heads. So far, however, President Obama has shown the right degree of restraint, while laying the groundwork to react as the outcome of events in Iran become clear enough to decide on the best policy.

Iran and the Challenges to Middle East Security

sherry — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400

Iran presents a wide range of potential challenges to the security of the Middle East. This does not mean that Iran plans to start new conflicts in the region or will actively seek to achieve its objectives by force. At the same time, however, Iran is actively seeking to expand its influence, and is now the most serious threat to the security of energy exports in the Gulf region.

Iran, Israel, and the Effects of Nuclear Conflict in the Middle East

amausner — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 00:00:00 -0400

Much of the debate over proliferation focuses on the possession of nuclear weapons rather than their use in warfighting and their effects. History is a grim warning, however, that deterrence does not always work and rational bargaining often fails. Abdullah Toukan and Anthony H.

Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran's Nuclear Development Facilities

Mon, 16 Mar 2009 00:00:00 -0400

During the last several months, the Burke Chair has carried out a detailed examination of Iran’s programs involving missile and weapons of mass destruction. The key drafts involved are available on the CSIS web site at:
http://www.csis.org/burke/reports/
A final comprehensive report will be published this summer as CSIS book by the Praeger Press.

Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction

Thu, 22 Jan 2009 00:00:00 -0500

Iran’s nuclear ambitions and missile programs, and their interactions with its growing capabilities for asymmetric warfare, are becoming steadily more critical security issues for the United States, Iran’s neighbors, and the international community.

Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction

Tue, 13 Jan 2009 00:00:00 -0500

Iran’s nuclear ambitions and missile programs, and their interactions with Iran’s growing capabilities for asymmetric warfare, are becoming steadily more critical security issues for the US, Iran’s neighbors, and the international community.

Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction

Mon, 08 Dec 2008 00:00:00 -0500

Iran’s nuclear ambitions and missile programs, and their interactions with its growing capabilities for asymmetric warfare, are becoming steadily more critical security issues for the US, Ira

Security Cooperation in the Gulf

Tue, 11 Nov 2008 00:00:00 -0500

The Southern Gulf states and the United States must make major changes in their national security posture over the next few years. U.S. withdrawals from Iraq, the rising potential threat from Iran, and the need to meet new security challenges all require substantial changes in the security posture and forces of each Gulf country and in the size, structure, and deployment of U.S.

Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction

Thu, 06 Nov 2008 00:00:00 -0500

Iran’s nuclear ambitions and missile programs, and their interactions with its growing capabilities for asymmetric warfare, are becoming steadily more critical security issues for the US, Ira

Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction

Tue, 28 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0400

Iran’s nuclear ambitions and missile programs, and their interactions with its growing capabilities for asymmetric warfare, are becoming steadily more critical security issues for the US, Ira

The United States, Israel, the Arab States, and a Nuclear Iran

Tue, 07 Oct 2008 00:00:00 -0400

Security Challenges and Threats in the Gulf

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 00:00:00 -0400

Covering U.S. Military Options for Dealing with Iran

Wed, 30 Apr 2008 00:00:00 -0400

US and Iranian relations are clearly deteriorating, driven by Iran's support of Iraqi insurgents hostile to the US, by the risk of clashes in the Gulf, by contingency Iranian missile developments,

NATO's Decision on Missile Defense

Fri, 04 Apr 2008 00:00:00 -0400

NATO's decision to move forward on missile defense in Europe is a mixed bag at best. It seems clear that missile defenses can work to some degree. No one has doubted t

Security Challenges and Threats in the Gulf

Mon, 24 Mar 2008 00:00:00 -0400

Both Gulf and US policymakers need to reassess the priorities in dealing with the threats to the Gulf.

Iran's Nuclear Program

Tue, 27 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0500

The attached presentation focuses on the inspection activity and reporting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and related UN activity. It is the third of a three part series on Iranian nuclear programs and long-range missiles. The first covered the consequences of Iranian use of nuclear weapons, and of a possible nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel or the gulf states.

Iran's Nuclear and Missile Programs

Tue, 20 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0500

The attached presentation summarizes is the second of three briefings prepared on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. The first covered the consequences of Iranian use of nuclear weapons, and of a possible nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel or the gulf states.

Iran, Israel, and Nuclear War

Mon, 19 Nov 2007 00:00:00 -0500

The latest IAEA report on Iran again illustrates the risks of nuclear war in the Middle East.

Iran's Military Forces and Warfighting Capabilities

Tue, 25 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0400

Nations around the world are uncertain and anxious about Iran's intentions in the Middle East and the wider global arena. Its current president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has made no secret of his opposition to the West, particularly Israel, and his desire to acquire nuclear weapons.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards, the Al Quds Force, and Other Intelligence and Paramilitary Forces

Wed, 15 Aug 2007 00:00:00 -0400

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is a product of the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini established the force to protect the Islamic order of the new Iranian government. The IRGC has since evolved to be a major political, military, and economic force in Iran.

Warfighting and Proliferation in the Middle East

Tue, 17 Apr 2007 00:00:00 -0400

Key Actors in 2010-2020

Iran, Oil, and the Strait of Hormuz

Mon, 26 Mar 2007 00:00:00 -0400

The “Persian” or “Arabian” Gulf creates major strategic uncertainties for Iran, its neighbors, and the world. It is a 600-mile-long body of water that separates Iran from the Arabian Peninsula, and one of the most strategic waterways in the world due to its importance in world oil transportation.

UN Sanctions and Iranian Arms Imports

Mon, 26 Mar 2007 00:00:00 -0400

It is not clear as yet how the new UN sanctions on Iran will affect its arms imports.

Israeli and U.S. Strikes on Iran

Mon, 05 Mar 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Israel and the US differ over the timing and level of risk posed by Iran's nuclear efforts. The US sees a mature or serious Iranian nuclear threat as coming well after 2010. Israel claims to see it as coming as early as 2009 -- although much of this may be Israeli hype designed to push the US into diplomatic action, and military action if that fails.

Iran

Fri, 02 Mar 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Iran

Tue, 20 Feb 2007 00:00:00 -0500

Iran is a state that must be assessed largely in terms of its capabilities, not its intentions.

Iran's Developing Nuclear and Missile Programs

Fri, 16 Feb 2007 00:00:00 -0500

This report provides an overview of Iran's nuclear program, its development of delivery assets for nuclear weapons, and a discussion of the resulting strategic challenges.