Program Related Publication Feeds

Instability in Syria

ian — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 00:00:00 -0500

Syria’s stability and its role in regional security politics have become steadily more uncertain since early 2011. The country has now experienced eight months of popular protests. Despite a lack of political cohesion or unity of purpose among the country’s opposition forces, rural areas and smaller cities continue to experience increasingly armed unrest.

Rethinking the Arab "Spring": Stability and Security in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and the Rest of the MENA Region

ian — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 00:00:00 -0500

No one can ignore the short-term problems the political upheavals in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia create for each country. New leaders must be chosen and security systems must be changed. The problems involved can kill political, economic and demographic reforms before they even begin.

Libya: Will the Farce Stay With US (And France and Britain)?

ian — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0400

At some point in time, it will be critical to examine the historical record behind the French, British, and US intervention in Libya and why they dragged NATO and allies like Qatar and the UAE into such a gamble.

Libya: “No Fly” to “Unstable Stalemate” or “Regime Kill?”

mentman — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 00:00:00 -0400

It is hard to get at the reality of US and allied operations in Libya, in part because there have to be serious limits to public disclosures of both the full nature of those operations and the real mission.

Egypt and Tunisia (and, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan)

ian — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 00:00:00 -0500

There is no one cause behind the upheavals in Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen. The causes are political and ideological, and cannot be separated from the religious, ethnic, sectarian, and tribal tensions in given countries. It is clear from the statements of many demonstrators that they are angry at repression, corruption, and a lack of basic justice.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition

amausner — Mon, 06 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0500

The current strategic landscape in the Gulf is shaped by a competition between Iran, Iraq, the US, and the individual Southern Gulf states for influence in the military, political, and economic realms. Iran is making broad efforts to expand its influence over the entire Gulf, as well as to deter US military action, reduce US influence, and establish itself as the dominant power in the reg

The Saudi Arms Sale

amausner — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The Department of Defense has proposed a new series of arms transfers to Saudi Arabia whose cost could eventually total up to $60 billion. A new analysis by the Burke Chair indicates that these transfers serve the vital national security interest of both nations. This analysis is entitled The Saudi Arms Sale: Reinforcing a Strategic Partnership in the Gulf.

Iran, Iraq, and the Changing Face of Defense Cooperation in the Gulf

amausner — Mon, 01 Nov 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The Southern Gulf states, the region, and the US all face a rapidly changing threat environment in the Gulf, and a sharply rising need for defense cooperation. These needs, and the changes in threat and military balance that shape them, are described in detail in a new analysis developed by the Arleigh A.

The New Saudi Arms Deal

amausner — Tue, 24 Aug 2010 00:00:00 -0400

One of the most critical strategic decisions the US will have to make over the next few years is how to reshape its security posture in the Gulf and the Middle East as it fully withdraws from Iraq. There is no possible “end state” to the US presence in the Gulf, or an end to the need for the strongest possible US security ties to friendly states in the region.

The Arab-Israeli Military Balance in 2010

amausner — Tue, 29 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0400

Major changes are taking place in the Arab-Israeli military balance.

Saudi Arabia and Gulf Security

ian — Mon, 17 May 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The US has not yet defined how it will change its position in the Gulf, or the role of USCENTCOM, once it withdraws from Iraq. It is clear, however, that the Gulf will remain both a critical and a highly unstable region.

Options in Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Program

amausner — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0400

During the early days of his administration, President Obama had said he would give Iran until the end of 2009 to change their policy on nuclear weapons development. As reported by Reuters on Jan 29, 2009, the U.S.

Gulf Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities

amausner — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

While much of the world has focused on Iran’s missile developments, and possible nuclear capabilities, this is only one of the risks that threaten the flow of petroleum products from the Gulf – a region with some 60% of the world’s proven conventional oil reserves and 40% of its natural gas.

Gulf Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities

sherry — Fri, 22 May 2009 00:00:00 -0400

While much of the world’s attention has focused on Iran’s missile developments and possible nuclear capabilities. Yet this is only one of the risks that threaten the flow of petroleum products from the Gulf – a region with some 60% of the world’s proven conventional oil reserves and 40% of its natural gas.

Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction

Tue, 13 Jan 2009 00:00:00 -0500

Iran’s nuclear ambitions and missile programs, and their interactions with Iran’s growing capabilities for asymmetric warfare, are becoming steadily more critical security issues for the US, Iran’s neighbors, and the international community.

USCENTCOM and the Future

Tue, 18 Nov 2008 00:00:00 -0500

The United States must do more than deal with its withdrawal from Iraq and reverse the course of the Afghan conflict. It needs to rethink the overall structure of its military posture and strategy in the Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia.

Global Energy, Economic Interdependence, Iraq, and the Gulf

Fri, 21 Sep 2007 00:00:00 -0400

Alan Greenspan has triggered yet another wave of global suspicion that the US went to war to steal Iraq's oil for itself. This was not the thrust of his book, or his later remarks, but the net impact has been to focus the world's attention on the issue.

Iran, Oil, and the Strait of Hormuz

Mon, 26 Mar 2007 00:00:00 -0400

The “Persian” or “Arabian” Gulf creates major strategic uncertainties for Iran, its neighbors, and the world. It is a 600-mile-long body of water that separates Iran from the Arabian Peninsula, and one of the most strategic waterways in the world due to its importance in world oil transportation.

Global Oil Security: Risks by Region and Supplier

Mon, 13 Nov 2006 00:00:00 -0500

The Changing Dynamics of Energy in the Middle East [2 vols.]

Mon, 30 Oct 2006 00:00:00 -0500

The recent rise in global demand for energy and the resulting spike in energy prices have illustrated just how important Middle Eastern energy exports are. This book, the first on the subject since the hike in energy prices impacted the global energy market, outlines current facts that shape the ability of Middle Eastern producers to supply energy exports.

Rethinking Global Energy Security

Fri, 06 Oct 2006 00:00:00 -0400

The Geopolitics of Energy: Geostrategic Risks and Economic Uncertainties

Mon, 20 Mar 2006 00:00:00 -0500

Anthony H. Cordesman and Khalid R. Al-Rodhan analyze the geostrategic risks and the economic uncertainties facing the global oil market.

The Global Oil Market

Wed, 01 Mar 2006 00:00:00 -0500

The future of energy is of enormous strategic importance, and the current energy market faces major uncertainties and risks. The goal of this study is to provide a risk assessment of the global oil market. Cordesman and Al-Rodhan study six major oil-producing regions of the world: the Middle East, Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Eurasia, North America, and South and Central America.

The Impact of the Abqaiq Attack on Saudi Energy Security

Mon, 27 Feb 2006 00:00:00 -0500

Khalid al-Rodhan, a visiting fellow at CSIS, has published an analysis of last week’s terrorist attack on a major Saudi oil facility in Abqaiq and what it means for world oil prices.

The Saudi and Gulf Stock Markets: Irrational Exuberance or Markets Efficiency?

Tue, 25 Oct 2005 00:00:00 -0400

The Gulf States are experiencing unprecedented growth in their economies and stock markets. The hope is that this growth is based on real economic growth, sound market fundamentals, and realistic economic policies.

The Changing Risks in Global Oil Supply and Demand: Crisis or Evolving Solutions?

Mon, 03 Oct 2005 00:00:00 -0400

The future of energy is of enormous importance. The global energy market is intricate and the analysis of it is uncertain. The ability of policy planners and strategists in petroleum-consuming nations is limited at best. Most of the known world reserves exist in regions and countries that are not stable.

The International Energy Outlook 2005: It is Hard to Make Predictions, Especially about the Future

Fri, 05 Aug 2005 00:00:00 -0400

The EIA of the US Department of Energy published a report on how oil prices are at an all time high due to geopolitical and security risks, surges in the demand for oil, the US refining capacity bottleneck, and the limited spare production capacity in some oil producing nations.

Saudi Economics and Saudi Stability: The Facts Behind the Speculation

Thu, 04 Aug 2005 00:00:00 -0400

Saudi Arabia's 'Sustainable' Capacity and Global Energy Supply and Demand

Wed, 04 May 2005 00:00:00 -0400

Global Energy Demand and Capacity Building in Saudi Arabia's Petroleum Sector

Mon, 02 May 2005 00:00:00 -0400

In these estimates, and virtually every other major forecast, Saudi Arabia is a key petroleum exporter and central to a steadily more interdependent global economy. Saudi Arabia is also the only oil producer that has consistently sought to maintain surplus oil production capacity, with a nominal goal of 2 million bpd. This situation will not change in the foreseeable future.

The Changing Balance of US and Global Dependence on Middle Eastern Energy Exports

Sun, 20 Mar 2005 00:00:00 -0500

It is too soon to draw any firm conclusions about the impact of high oil prices on Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) oil exports, on US and other imports, and on increases in conservation and the supply of alternative fuels.

US and Global Dependence on Middle Eastern Energy Exports: 2004-2030

Tue, 23 Nov 2004 00:00:00 -0500

The Growing Importance of Middle Eastern Energy