Program Related Publication Feeds

The Death of Osama Bin Laden, and the Shape of Threats to Come

mentman — Mon, 02 May 2011 00:00:00 -0400

No American -- or anyone else one who opposes violent, murderous terrorism -- can see Osama Bin Laden’s death as anything but just retribution. We need to be very cautious, however, in assuming that it will now damage Al Qa’ida and other Islamist extremist networks, or that we can predict the political and strategic consequences.

GCC Security, Risk Assessment, and U.S. Extended Deterrence

sherry — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 00:00:00 -0500

The Burke chair has just published a new report entitled “GCC Security, Risk Assessment, and US Extended Deterrence” which is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/110202_GCC_Secur_US_Extended_Deter.pdf.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition

amausner — Mon, 06 Dec 2010 00:00:00 -0500

The current strategic landscape in the Gulf is shaped by a competition between Iran, Iraq, the US, and the individual Southern Gulf states for influence in the military, political, and economic realms. Iran is making broad efforts to expand its influence over the entire Gulf, as well as to deter US military action, reduce US influence, and establish itself as the dominant power in the reg

Putting the Air War in Pakistan in Perspective

amausner — Wed, 06 Oct 2010 00:00:00 -0400

It is scarcely a secret that the US is fighting an air war in Pakistan at at least four different levels. It is using unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) to support US forces in “hot pursuit” in the border area. It is using them to attack Taliban and other insurgent forces near the border to limit their capability to operate in Afghanistan.

The Influence of Regional Military Threats on Israeli Security

amausner — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The beginning of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks highlights the uncertainties affecting Israel’s security – both at present and in the future. The Burke Chair has prepared a new analysis of the overall pattern of regional threats that affect Israel’s security interest, of which the peace talks are only part.

Reforming ANSF Metrics

amausner — Wed, 11 Aug 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The new Commanders Unit Assessment Tool (CUAT) for measuring the capabilities of the ANSF represents a significant improvement over the old Capability Milestone (CM) system. The old system was too rigid, too narrowly quantitative, and measured only a handful of relatively unimportant metrics.

Reforming ANSF Metrics

amausner — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 00:00:00 -0400

The development of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) is one of the most critical aspects of the war. NATO/ISAF simply cannot bring this war to a successful conclusion without transitioning responsibility for security to the Afghans.

Options in Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Program

amausner — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0400

During the early days of his administration, President Obama had said he would give Iran until the end of 2009 to change their policy on nuclear weapons development. As reported by Reuters on Jan 29, 2009, the U.S.

New Reports on International Cooperation in Counterterrorism

ian — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 00:00:00 -0400

No nation can deal the threat of terrorism without cooperation from other states and international organizations. NATO is hold an International Symposium of Counterterrorism in Ankara on March 15th-16th, and the Burke Chair at CSIS has developed several papers and presentations for this conference.

How the US Must Expand and Redefine International Cooperation in Fighting Terrorism

amausner — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 00:00:00 -0500

As Americans we naturally focus on the most direct threats to the United States, and what all too many in the West have seen as a clash between civilizations. It is important, however, to keep what is happening in perspective.

The New "War on Terrorism"

amausner — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 00:00:00 -0500

Few talk today about the “Global War on Terrorism,” and few should. The phrase was always too broad and too ambiguous, and it implied some kind of unity in the threat that never existed. It is important, however, to look beyond today’s headlines about Yemen and consider the broader range of threats the US now faces on a regional basis.

Iraq: Security and the Challenges of Lasting "Victory"

amausner — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:00:00 -0400

The Changing Challenge to Iraqi Security

Gulf Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities

amausner — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

While much of the world has focused on Iran’s missile developments, and possible nuclear capabilities, this is only one of the risks that threaten the flow of petroleum products from the Gulf – a region with some 60% of the world’s proven conventional oil reserves and 40% of its natural gas.

Iraq: A Time to Stay?

amausner — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 00:00:00 -0400

There may well be a case for accelerating some aspects of the US military withdrawal from Iraq. The present plan has an insurance plan built into the withdrawal schedule. It delays the start of further major reductions until after the Iraqi national election in early 2010, and then rushes them out before August. So far, things have gone better in Iraq than some anticipated.

Iraq’s Fracture Lines

amausner — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0400

There may well be a case for accelerating some aspects of the US military withdrawal from Iraq. The present plan has an insurance factor built in to the withdrawal schedule. It delays the start of major further reductions until after the Iraqi national election in early 2010, and then rushes them out before August. So far, things have gone better in Iraq than some anticipated.

The Afghanistan Campaign: Can We Win?

amausner — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0400

The Dynamics of the "AfPak" Conflict: Metrics and Status Report

ian — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00:00 -0400

The Afghan-Pakistan conflict is a complex conflict that covers two countries and has ideological, political, governance, economic, military, and security dimensions that are extremely difficult to measure and portray in summary form.

The Strategic Impact of the Turkish Invasion of Iraq's Kurdish Region

Mon, 03 Mar 2008 00:00:00 -0500

The Uncertain Cost of the Global War on Terror

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 00:00:00 -0400

The economic cost of the war is less important than the human costs. The Iraq War alone has so far cost the lives of roughly 100,000 Iraqi civilians and wounded many times more. It has driven over two million out of the country, displaced more than two million within Iraq, and reduced eight million Iraqis to dire poverty.

The Long War: The United States as a Self-Inflicted Wound

Tue, 13 Mar 2007 00:00:00 -0400

Key Self-Inflicted Wounds

Winning the War on Terrorism

Mon, 25 Sep 2006 00:00:00 -0400

The latest events in Somalia are yet another warning that the United States, its Western allies and Islamic nations need to change their strategies to win the “war on terrorism.” The basic lessons have been the same in Iraq, Afghanistan and throughout the Islamic world. The present mix of Western action and Islamic inaction cannot possibly win.

Zarqawi's Death: Temporary "Victory" or Lasting Impact

Thu, 08 Jun 2006 00:00:00 -0400

The Lessons of International Cooperation in Counterterrorism

Tue, 07 Feb 2006 00:00:00 -0500

CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy Anthony Cordesman writes that international cooperation is key to developing a sustainable counterterrorism strategy and to avoiding tension between the West and the Muslim world.

The Challenge of Biological Terrorism

Thu, 01 Dec 2005 00:00:00 -0500

The politics and ideology of terrorism have removed past limits on the levels of violence that terrorists are willing to use. Captured Al Qaeda records, for example, clearly show that Islamic extremists have an interest in acquiring biological as well as chemical and nuclear weapons. Biological terrorism therefore poses a threat that is all too real.

International Cooperation in Counter-Terrorism: Making the Myth A Reality

Mon, 05 Sep 2005 00:00:00 -0400

Terrorist and Extremist Movements in the Middle East: The Impact on the Regional Military Balance

Tue, 29 Mar 2005 00:00:00 -0500

Terrorism and asymmetric warfare are scarcely new features of the Middle Eastern military balance, and Islamic extremism is scarcely the only source of extremist violence. There are many serious ethnic and sectarian differences in the Middle East, and these have long led to sporadic violence within given states, and sometimes to major civil conflicts.

Saudi Counter Terrorism Efforts: The Changing Paramilitary and Domestic Security Apparatus

Wed, 02 Feb 2005 00:00:00 -0500

Al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia

Wed, 26 Jan 2005 00:00:00 -0500

Asymmetric Threats and Islamist Extremists

Al Qaeda and the Military Realities in Iraq

Thu, 28 Oct 2004 00:00:00 -0400

Beyond Anger and Counterterrorism: A New Grand Strategy for U.S. and Arab Relations

Mon, 13 Sep 2004 00:00:00 -0400

The 9/11 Commission Report: Strengths and Weaknesses

Mon, 02 Aug 2004 00:00:00 -0400

The US needs to be very careful about rushing to act upon the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission. This may seem to be a desirable instant solution to a difficult political problem in an election year.

Lessons of Post Cold War Conflict: Middle Eastern Lessons and Perspectives

Wed, 16 Jun 2004 00:00:00 -0400

Working Paper for the NIC Global Trends 2020 Project on the Changing Nature of Warfare

The Military Balance in the Middle East: The Impact of Terrorism and Extremism on the Regional Balance

Mon, 15 Mar 2004 00:00:00 -0500

The Need for More Sophisticated Reporting On Al Qaida and Terrorism

Fri, 29 Aug 2003 00:00:00 -0400

Saudi Arabia and the Challenge of Terrorism: Reacting to the '9/11 Report'

Sun, 03 Aug 2003 00:00:00 -0400

The Role of the United Nations in Fighting Terrorism

Tue, 18 Jun 2002 00:00:00 -0400

Terrorism is not a simple challenge, and the classic definitions of terrorism sharply
understate the true range of problems the UN faces...

Saudi Security and the War on Terrorism

Sun, 03 Mar 2002 00:00:00 -0500

Rough Draft Circulated for Comment and Discussion

The New American Approach to Defense: The FY2003 Program

Wed, 06 Feb 2002 00:00:00 -0500

At the Federal level, Congress appropriated a $40 billion Emergency Response Fund to wage war against Al Qaeda, aid the reconstruction efforts in New York and Virginia, compensate victims, and strengthen our defenses at home.

A New Transatlantic Strategy for Terrorism and Asymmetric Warfare

Wed, 16 Jan 2002 00:00:00 -0500

The US and Europe has done well in dealing with the first phase of the “war on terrorism” that has followed the tragedy of September 11th. The Transatlantic relationship has always worked best in a crisis.

Taking a New Look at Afghanistan and the War on Terrorism

Tue, 08 Jan 2002 00:00:00 -0500

During the last month, much of the analysis and media coverage of Afghanistan and the war on terrorism has taken on an almost ritual character. There are good reasons to question whether this kind of analysis and media coverage is adequate and reflects the realities
of the war on terrorism.

The Broader War on Terrorism: After the "Victory" in Afghanistan

Thu, 27 Dec 2001 00:00:00 -0500

It is tempting to focus on developments in Afghanistan, and the hunt for Osama bin Laden, as the key elements in the war on terrorism. In practice, however, it is already clear that the situation is far more complex.

The Lasting Challenge: A Strategy for Counterterrorism and Asymmetric Warfare

Fri, 30 Nov 2001 00:00:00 -0500

“Victory” cannot be defined in terms of eradicating terrorism or eliminating risk. Victory must be defined in much more limited terms. It will consist of reducing the threat of terrorism to acceptable levels – levels that allow us to go on with our lives in spite of the fact that new attacks are possible and that we may well see further and more serious tragedies.

Beyond the Bin Laden Hunt: The Real Story in the War Against Terrorism

Tue, 20 Nov 2001 00:00:00 -0500

It is tempting to assume that most of the story is over in Afghanistan, that Konduz and Qandahar will fall, and that the Bin Laden hunt is the proper focus of events. The real situation seems considerably more complex.

Why the Taliban Collapsed So Quickly

Wed, 14 Nov 2001 00:00:00 -0500

We don't have enough detail as yet to know exactly why the Taliban collapsed as quickly as it did in the North and center -- and it is premature to count them out around Qandahar and as a guerrilla force. No one should assume its over until its over.

Saudi Official Statements on Terrorism After the September 11th Attacks

Sun, 11 Nov 2001 00:00:00 -0500

The U.S. Bombing and Ramadan: The Real Problems We Face Because of Our Failure to Understand Asymmetric Warfare

Fri, 09 Nov 2001 00:00:00 -0500

So far, the United States has lagged badly in trying to win "information dominance" in its battle with the Taliban and Al Qaeda-at least in the Islamic world, Middle East, and Pakistan, where winning matters most.

Radiological Weapons as Means of Attack

Thu, 08 Nov 2001 00:00:00 -0500

Radiological weapons are generally felt to be suitable largely for terror, political, and area denial purposes, rather than mass killings. Unlike nuclear weapons, they spread radioactive material contaminating personnel, equipment, facilities, and terrain.

The Uncertain Status of the War

Mon, 05 Nov 2001 00:00:00 -0500

Secretary Rumsfeld's comments about the lack of a smoothly functioning Taliban government, and its loss of communications and day to day control, are probably correct. The practical problem, however is just how much this matters and how much future U.S. restrikes on know Taliban and Al Qaida facilities can accomplish.

A New Strategy for Dealing with Terrorism in the Middle East

Thu, 01 Nov 2001 00:00:00 -0500

It is both easy and dangerous to stereotype the problem of fighting terrorism in the Middle East. The only way that the United States can hope to approach the struggle successfully is to understand its complexity and deal with it accordingly.

The Taliban and its Afghan Opposition: Why the "Bad Guys" May be Less Fragile than The "Good Guys" and a US Ground-Air Option

Wed, 31 Oct 2001 00:00:00 -0500

It may be too early to talk about the lessons of the fighting in Afghanistan, but it may not be too early to talk aboutrelearning some old lessons. Regardless of Pentagon assurances, the bombing campaign is clearly causing increasing political problems and it may be experiencing military problems as well.