Blog

Progress and Impasse in Syria

Andrew St. Denis — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 00:13:08 -0500

In its safeguards report on Syria released Monday, the IAEA noted a number of ongoing discrepancies between Syrian statements and evidence gathered from the suspected reactor that Israel destroyed at Al Kibar in 2007 and the Miniature Neutron Source Reactor (MNSR) under IAEA safeguards in Damascus. Syria refuses to discuss Al Kibar (aka Dair Alzour), and requests to view technical documentation of the destroyed building and access to its debris, the munitions that destroyed it, and any salvaged equipment remain unanswered. Traces of anthropogenic (chemically processed) natural uranium found at the site remain unaccounted for. While Syria alleges that the traces originated with the Israeli missiles used in the strike, it refuses to substantiate the claim, and the Agency has all but ruled this explanation out.

Toward a U.S.-U.K.-French Consensus on Nuclear Nonproliferation

jwarden — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 12:53:43 -0500

This CSIS just released the final product of its U.S.-U.K.-France Trilateral Dialogues on Nuclear Issues. The final statement comes from a group of high-level "Track 2" participants who were assembled to discuss nuclear issues and identify areas of consensus between the three countries. The CSIS, led by CEO and President John Hamre, Senior Adviser Clark Murdock, and Non-Resident Senior Adviser Franklin Miller and with support from Fellow Jenifer Mackby and Research Assistant Chris Jones, hosted three meetings to develop and sharpen the statement.

The final statement, entitled "Trilateral Nuclear Dialogues: Toward a Common P3 Approach on Nuclear Non-Proliferation, Energy Use, Disarmament and Material Security," focuses on the shared assumptions and objectives, common policy agenda, and specific initiatives and tactics that the three countries should focus upon over the next few years including at the May 2010 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference.

In addition to outlining a number of specific initiatives the three countries should support, one of the key takeaways from the statement is the importance of priorities. The four main priorities identified are: 1) Strengthening the non-proliferation regime; 2) Pursuing disarmament; 3) Providing for the peaceful use of nuclear energy; and 4) Rapidly secure global nuclear inventories. And, according to the statement, focusing on these priorities will be critical to success:

Nonproliferation News - November 20, 2009

jwarden — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:28:56 -0500

FISSILE MATERIAL
ElBaradei urges Iran to agree fuel deal by year end
Reuters by Dave Graham

Outlook for tough Iran sanctions is dim
AP by Robert Burns

IAEA inspectors revisit disputed Iran nuclear site
Reuters by Mark Heinrich

Panel Sees No Need for A-Bomb Upgrade
NYT by William J. Broad

Is Success Possible at the 2010 RevCon?

jwarden — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:56:43 -0500

Earlier this week Carnegie hosted an event earlier this week as part of the roll-out for Deepti Choubey's new report Restoring the NPT: Essential Steps for 2010. At the event, Carnegie’s George Perkovich moderated a discussion between Choubey and Egypt’s Ambassador to the United States, Sameh Shoukry that covered the report and the prospects for success at the 2010 RevCon.

While emphasizing the importance of next year's meeting, Choubey worried that the expectations might be too high. President Obama's talk of disarmament and a world without nuclear weapons has raised the bar. However, realistically the U.S. will have little tangible gains in disarmament by next May.

The U.S. and Russia will likely agree to modest reductions in a new START treaty that will hopefully be ratified, but there is almost no chance that the U.S. will have ratified the CTBT by that time. During the discussion at the event, Choubey said START wouldn't be enough. She explained:

Nonproliferation News - November 19, 2009

jwarden — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:06:26 -0500

FISSILE MATERIAL
North Korea Arms Trade Funds Nuclear-Bomb Work, UN Panel Says
Bloomberg by Bill Varner

Minister Says Iran Won’t Ship Uranium Abroad
NYT by Michael Slackman

Iran Imperils Western Nuclear Deal
WSJ by Chip Cummins and Jay Solomon

The Conventional Arms Control Challenge
Foreign Policy in Focus by Frida Berrigan

Nonproliferation News - November 18, 2009

jwarden — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 10:24:57 -0500

FISSILE MATERIAL

North Korea's nuclear plans cloud Obama in Seoul
WP by Jon Herskovitz and Patricia Zengerle

Iran rejects sending uranium abroad, considers swaps
Reuters

Secrecy shrouds Iran's contingency centers
Asia Times by Gareth Porter

Why China Isn't Willing to Get Too Tough on Iran
Time by Bill Powell

CTBT Follow-On

chris jones — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 18:10:49 -0500

There’s been an exchange over the past few days between us and NOH about an op-ed published on CTBT ratification (the original article, the initial response, th

Nonproliferation News - November 17, 2009

jwarden — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 10:55:17 -0500

FISSILE MATERIAL
Inspectors Fear Iran Is Hiding Nuclear Plants
NYT by David E. Sanger and William J. Broad

Iran wants nuclear fuel swap to take place on its own soil
The Hindu by Siddharth Varadarajan

IAEA deepens Syria atom probe over uranium traces
The Star by Reuters

New Russian-U.S. arms reduction treaty hampered by differences
RIA Novosti by Ilya Kramnik

Qom, Contingencies, and Confidence

Andrew St. Denis — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 23:51:45 -0500

Courtesy of ISIS, the IAEA today released new safeguards reports on Syria and the Iranian nuclear program.

On the Qom facility, now known as the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), Iran explained to the IAEA that the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran had been allocated the site in the latter half of 2007 and that “that was when the construction of the FFEP had started.” Iran reiterated that explanation in an October 28 letter:

“As a result of the augmentation of the threats of military attacks against Iran, the Islamic Republic of Iran decided to establish contingency centers for various organizations and activities . . .

Regime on the Brink

micah.loudermilk — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 09:23:17 -0500

There has been quite a news deluge out of the nuclear world lately, which, while beneficial for blogs dedicated to the analysis of things-nuclear, is certainly rather problematic for the United States and the nonproliferation world. Although the stories concerning North Korea and Iran appear to be running on repeat, with little apparent progress in either direction, the nonproliferation regime as a whole seems to be inching ever closer to the brink. This, of course, is not an attempt to write the post-to-end-all-posts, but the nuclear developments (or lack thereof) during these latter months of 2009 are troublesome and merit consideration as part of the bigger picture – that is, examining the larger spectrum of nuclear issues and not just the isolated ones.