Feb 9, 2010
Comparative Connections
Part of the:
Pacific Forum CSIS
Comparative Connections provides a timely, concise, and comprehensive source of information and analysis on key East Asian bilateral relationships.
The Pacific Forum established Comparative Connections in April 1999. Recognized specialists provide a brief article each quarter on the key developments in 12 selected bilateral relationships, highlighting the impact on U.S. interests. Articles include a chronology of key events. A regional overview puts the events of the quarter into a broader context, while also discussing multilateral developments.
Download the full current issue of Comparative Connections.
Regional Overview
Ralph A. Cossa, Pacific Forum CSIS, and Brad Glosserman, Pacific Forum CSIS
The US is back in Asia! This was the central theme of President Obama’s major Asia policy speech, delivered in Tokyo. North Korean “Dear Leader” Kim Jong-il also hinted that Pyongyang might come back to the Six-Party Talks after a visit to the North Korean capital by Ambassador Stephen Bosworth. Kim did not meet Bosworth but he did meet Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at the beginning of the quarter. Washington’s commitment to multilateral cooperation was renewed at the APEC leaders meeting and Obama convened the first-ever full ASEAN-US summit. Historic rivalries within Southeast Asia returned to the front-burner as Thailand and Cambodia turned up the heat in a very un- ASEAN way. Asia’s economies appear to be returning from the dead while Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s proposal for a new Asia-Pacific Community refuses to die, despite an apparent lack of enthusiasm for the idea within and beyond ASEAN.
U.S. - Japan
Mike Green, CSIS, and Nicholas Szechenyi, CSIS
In the last quarter of 2009, the US-Japan alliance entered one of the greatest periods of uncertainty in recent memory. Many of the populist policy proposals of the Democratic Party of Japan fell by the wayside as the party settled into power. On the foreign policy front, the new government announced Japan would terminate a naval refueling mission supporting coalition operations in Afghanistan, but unveiled a $5 billion aid package focused on infrastructure and vocational training. President Obama and Prime Minister Hatoyama met in November to discuss Afghanistan, North Korea, nonproliferation, and climate change. However, summitry did little to conceal Washington’s frustration with Tokyo’s conflicting messages about realigning bases in Okinawa and Hatoyama’s pledge that Japan would move forward with an ill-defined “East Asia Community” in order to reduce Tokyo’s “dependence” on the United States.
U.S. - China
Obama-Hu Summit: Success or Disappointment?
Bonnie Glaser, CSIS/Pacific Forum CSIS
President Obama’s first-ever trip to China was the main attraction of the fourth quarter. In addition to meeting Chinese leaders, Obama held a town hall-style assembly with Chinese students in Shanghai. The two sides signed a joint statement, the first in 12 years, which highlighted the depth and breadth of the relationship and promised greater cooperation. Nevertheless, the US media mostly faulted the president for not making sufficiently concrete progress on a number of problems. The Copenhagen climate talks garnered much attention in December. As the two largest emitters of CO2, negotiations between China and the US not only occupied the meeting’s spotlight, but also ultimately decided its outcome. Trade friction continued to intensify with both countries launching new investigations and imposing duties on several products. The bilateral military relationship took a step forward with the visit to the US by Xu Caihou, vice chairman of China’s powerful Central Military Commission.
U.S. - Korea
Victor D. Cha, CSIS Korea Chair / Georgetown University, and Ross Matzkin-Bridger, CSIS
The quarter included a number of significant developments in US- Korea ties. President Barack Obama made his first trip to Seoul in November, and Ambassador Stephen Bosworth traveled to Pyongyang in December. Obama’s visit marked the continuation of an historical high in relations as he and President Lee Myung-bak found common ground on North Korea and inched forward with the Korea-US free trade agreement. Meanwhile, Bosworth’s three days of talks with North Korean officials brought the most encouraging signs of a return to the six-party process since talks broke down at the end of 2008. The Obama administration is faring well on the Korean Peninsula, even as relations with other major powers of the region become more complicated. Those accompanying Obama on his trip to Asia informally acknowledged that Korea was the “best stop” on the trip and sensed a personal connection between the two leaders.
U.S. - Russia
Joseph Ferguson, National Council for Eurasian and East European Research
The quarter proved to be a quiet one for US-Russia relations. Although there were no major bilateral rifts, several issues continue to fester, including the impasse over the Iranian nuclear program. The biggest disappointment, however, may have been the failure to reach an agreement on the replacement for the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) that expired on Dec. 5. Negotiations are set to resume in January, but end-of-year remarks by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin about the dangers of the US ballistic missile defense system threaten to throw a wrench into the discussions. Meanwhile, the long-awaited East Siberian oil pipeline destined for Asian markets has finally come on line.
U.S. - Southeast Asia
Engagement with Burma Ramps Up
Sheldon W. Simon, Arizona State University
High-level US efforts to convince Burma’s military government to open its political system to the democratic opposition and release political prisoners prior to scheduled 2010 elections accelerated this quarter. President Obama, Secretary of State Clinton, and Assistant Secretary of State Campbell all weighed in during meetings in Burma and at the first ASEAN-US summit. The ASEAN states welcomed the first US summit with all 10 members and Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan noted that Obama’s praise for ASEAN’s role debunked claims that it is no longer the centerpiece of the region’s architecture. Singapore’s prime minister insisted that the US continues to be Asia’s “indispensable” player despite the rise of China and India. In the Philippines, the Visiting Forces Agreement continues to be a political football in domestic Philippine politics. On a tip from the US, Thai authorities detained a cargo aircraft loaded with weapons coming from North Korea.
China - Southeast Asia
ASEAN and Asian Regional Diplomacy
Robert Sutter, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University and Chin-Hao Huang, University of Southern California
The last quarter of 2009 featured high-level Chinese leadership diplomacy with individual Southeast Asian countries, ASEAN, and Asian regional multilateral groups. Salient meetings involved the ASEAN Plus 1 and Asian leadership summits in Thailand in October, a presidential visit to Malaysia and Singapore, including the APEC leaders meeting in Singapore in November, and high-level visits to Australia in late October, and Myanmar and Cambodia in December. Chinese official media commentary showed some concern over recently heightened US and Japanese diplomatic activism in the region. The South China Sea disputes and military tensions along the China-Myanmar border were much less prominent than earlier in the year.
China - Taiwan
David G. Brown, The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Taipei and Beijing resumed progress on economic issues by completing the Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) on cooperation in regulating the financial sector and signing three technical agreements at the fourth round of SEF-ARATS talks. Informal talks concerning an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) continued but no date for starting formal negotiation has been announced. While the pace of progress is now slow largely because reaching compromises on substantive economic issues has proven to be time-consuming, these agreements further integrate the two economies. Taipei has continued to resist pressure from Beijing to address political issues about which opinion in Taiwan remains deeply divided. Cross-Strait trade has recovered quickly from the precipitous drop a year ago and should surpass its pre-recession peak in December. Slow progress is likely to continue in the coming months.
North Korea - South Korea
Aidan Foster-Carter, Leeds University, UK
During the quarter relations between the two Koreas maintained the slight improvement seen since late August. This easing is a relief compared to the first year and a half of Lee Myung-bak’s presidency, during which North-South ties went from bad to worse. Yet it is premature to suggest any substantial improvement – much less a return to the engagement of the “Sunshine” decade (1998-2007). Rather, what we see is mixed signals from Pyongyang, and to some extent also from Seoul as the two governments are now testing and sounding each other out. This is not happening in a vacuum, but in the context of two wider imponderables: whether Kim Jong-il will return to nuclear dialogue in any shape or form, plus the opaque and delicate process of installing his third son Kim Jong-eun as his anointed successor. A surprise currency redenomination in early December, rendering most North Koreans’ savings worthless and reportedly provoking protests, is a reminder that the North’s internal stability cannot be taken for granted.
China - Korea
China Embraces South and North, but Differently
Scott Snyder, Senior Associate, Pacific Forum CSIS/The Asia Foundation and See-won Byun, Asia Foundation
The last quarter raised hopes for developments in China’s relations with both Koreas. Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping received head-of-state treatment during his visit to Seoul where he presented proposals to further the China-ROK strategic cooperative partnership, including pressing for a free trade agreement. President Lee Myung-bak and Premier Wen Jiabao held bilateral talks in Beijing on the margins of the China-ROK-Japan summit. There were also several exchanges between China and the DPRK. Premier Wen Jiabao led a large delegation to Pyongyang where he was warmly hosted by Kim Jong-il and proposed a comprehensive set of deals with North Korea. President Hu Jintao reportedly extended a formal invitation to Kim Jong-il to visit China “at a convenient time.”
Japan - China
James J. Przystup, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University
A flurry of high-level political and diplomatic contacts marked the quarter. The engagement culminated in the December visit of DPJ Secretary General Ozawa Ichiro to China and his meeting with President Hu Jintao followed by the visit of Vice President Xi Jinping to Japan and his audience with Emperor Akihito. Both Japanese and Chinese political leaders repeatedly made clear their intentions to advance the bilateral relationship. While progress on issues related to joint development of resources in the East China Sea and resolution of the adulterated gyoza case remained noticeably lacking, public opinion polls suggested an upward trend in the way both Japanese and Chinese viewed each other and the bilateral relationship.
Japan - Korea
David C. Kang, University of Southern California, and Ji-Young Lee, Georgetown University
Relations between Japan and the two Koreas were relatively uneventful in the final quarter of 2009. The new Hatoyama government quickly began to show more attention to its relations with its East Asian neighbors and hinted at a small change in priorities with respect to North Korea. South Korea and Japan said mostly all the right things, even while substantively it seemed fairly clear that they continued to have very different opinions about territorial and historical disputes. However, no real movement or dramatic changes came about during the quarter, setting the stage for 2010 – the 100th “anniversary” of Japan’s annexation of Korea.
China - Russia
Mr. Putin Goes to China: Ten Years After
Yu Bin, Wittenberg University
The last month of 2009 was significant for petro-politics on the Eurasian continent. In mid-December, the 1,800 km Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan- Kazakhstan-China natural gas pipeline went into operation. It connects with the 4,500 km West-East trunk line inside China and has an annual capacity of 40 billion cubic meters. Two weeks later, Prime Minister Putin officially commissioned the first section of the nearly 5,000 km Eastern Siberia-Pacific-Ocean (ESPO) oil pipeline to the newly built Kozmino oil port near Vladivostok. Thus, Moscow and Beijing significantly elevated their postures in the global game of energy diversification. Both pipelines were built during the tenure of President- turned-Prime-Minister Putin. His October visit to China resulted in a dozen high-value commercial deals, but also reflected his 10-year legacy in shaping Russian-Chinese relations and their mutual perceptions.
[article & chronology of events]
India - U.S. and India - East Asia
Satu Limaye, East-West Center
India-US and India-East Asia relations saw no dramatic developments in 2009. Washington and New Delhi, both with new governments, spent much of the year adjusting to each other. The overall mood of bilateral relations was subdued, not so much because of a specific disagreement or problem, but because Washington was preoccupied with other priorities and New Delhi was coming to terms with the fact that it was not one of them – as it had been during the Bush administration. India-East Asia ties ranged from outreach to Mongolia to Papua New Guinea (PNG) to Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) and included the signing of the India-ASEAN FTA in goods. But India’s relations with East Asia were dominated by Sino-Indian tensions inflamed by the media in both countries.
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