Global Aging Initiative

The world stands on the threshold of a stunning demographic transformation brought about by declining birthrates and rising life expectancy. The first trend is decreasing the relative number of young, while the second trend is increasing the relative number of old. Together, they are leading to a dramatic and unprecedented aging of populations worldwide.

For most of human history, the elderly only comprised a tiny fraction of the population, never more than 3 or 4 percent until about a century ago. In today’s developed world, they comprise roughly 15 percent of the population. By mid-century, the share is on track to reach 25 percent—and that’s just the average. In some fast-aging European countries, the share will be approaching 35 percent and in Japan it will be approaching 40 percent. Along the way, the populations of most developed countries will cease growing and in some cases enter a steep decline.

The developing world as a whole is still much younger, but it too is aging—with some countries traversing the entire demographic distance from young and growing to old and stagnant or declining at a breathtaking pace. By the 2040s, Mexico will be nearly as old as the United States—and China will be older. Meanwhile, South Korea will be vying with Germany, Italy, and Japan for the title of oldest country on earth. 

We live in an era of many challenges, from global warming to global terrorism. But few are as certain as global aging—and few are as likely to have such a large and enduring an impact on government budgets, living standards, and the future global economic and geopolitical order. 
 

GAI’s Mission

The Global Aging Initiative (GAI) explores the long-term economic, social, and geopolitical implications of demographic change in the United States and around the world. CSIS established GAI in 1999 to raise awareness of global aging, to inform policymakers and the public about the challenges it poses, and to encourage timely and constructive reform. Since then, GAI has pursued a wide-ranging research and educational agenda, developing new analytical tools, designing and evaluating reform options, and offering strategic advice to leaders in government, business, and the civil sector.

GAI’s agenda, like the demographic transformation itself, intersects with virtually every dimension of public and private life. How can aging societies maintain a decent standard of living for the old without imposing a crushing burden on the young? How will economic performance be affected as rates of savings and investment decline and workforces contract and gray? How will the changing structure of the family (which will often have more grandparents than grandchildren) affect the way we raise the young and care for the old? How will the rising average age of the population affect risk-taking, entrepreneurship, and voter and leadership behavior? Perhaps most fatefully, how is the differential impact of global aging, by country and by region, likely to transform the geopolitical landscape?

While there are other nonprofit institutes and academic centers that focus on various aspects of the aging challenge, from health issues to workplace issues, none of them has GAI’s broad view, interdisciplinary scope, and global strategic perspective. To the extent that the work of these other institutes and centers is substantive, it tends to be narrowly academic; to the extent that it tries to communicate more broadly with policymakers and the public, it tends to be superficial. Quite simply, no one has GAI’s proven track record in translating incisive research into authoritative yet accessible policy analysis and recommendations.

As a result, GAI has become the leading voice on the challenge of global aging. Its publications have been widely cited in the national and international media, including The Economist, Financial Times, The New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal. And its experts have been invited to speak at dozens of conferences focusing on everything from retirement policy to defense policy. GAI’s most recent report, The Global Aging Preparedness Index, was rolled out at a series of events in London in October 2010—and will be the focus of additional events in Washington, Brussels, and Hong Kong in the months to come. Following its release in April 2009, China's Long March to Retirement Reform received coverage in every Chinese general and business news publication. The Graying of the Great Powers, GAI’s investigation of the geopolitical implications of global aging, has been hailed by policy experts and academics as the most authoritative study on the subject—and has become required reading in the international relations and security communities. 

GAI's Projects