Opportunity Tipping Point

Climate change discussions are full of tipping points.  In the climate change world, tipping points are events in which one of earth’s natural systems is no longer able to function as it has for centuries and either ceases to function or changes in some fundamental way.  Once a tipping point has been reached, there is no going back.

This project is about a different kind of tipping point:  the point at which the shift to a low carbon energy economy is no longer perceived as a net economic, political and social burden, but rather the source of new growth and opportunity and the most desirable way to do business.  This tipping point is societal rather than ecological, but no less complex.  It is the point at which the balance of momentum in the world’s energy system no longer favors perpetuating high carbon, low efficiency systems, technologies and fuels, but has irrevocably switched to a low carbon system. 

Many people doubt this tipping point can be reached absent a major technological breakthrough and/or significant government intervention given the overwhelming predominance of fossil fuels in the current energy system and the current limitations associated with the cost and scalability of current low or no carbon energy alternatives. Others believe the transition is far closer at hand given the proper lead times, a favorable policy environment, and a renewed commitment to energy research and development.  Whether  this point exists, when it will arrive, and how society might reach it, are very much at the heart of all current energy and climate discussions.

Given the fact that countries around the world have decided to institute emissions reduction policies and ascribe to the opportunity vision, the question now shifts to what are the best policies to ensure we reach the opportunity tipping point?. 

Governments and the private sector have invested a great deal of political and financial capital as a down payment towards the transition. A business-as-usual approach is no longer possible.  In a post-Copenhagen environment, sustaining momentum for climate change policies around the world is the most important element to ensure long-term success. 

The goal of this project is to help sustain momentum for transformational and transition-oriented policies, inform the creation of new policies and commercial activities to be more successful, and foster greater international buy-in for secure, low carbon pathway strategies.

Critical questions include: 

• What will be the long-term relative cost and availability of various fuels to replace the current fuel mix at scale? 
• What technologies will be available at what cost and deployable at what scale over what timeframe? 
• What policies will be in place to encourage low carbon fuels, technologies, and practices, and will these policies effectively bring about the right business case or commercial environment for these new opportunities to grow?
• How and for how long will conventional fuels and existing systems need to be supported and infrastructure replaced to ensure a viable energy system? 
• What new role can/will there be for conventional fuels in this new system? 
• How will consumer behavior change in the face of higher initial costs especially when the alternate is more serious climatic consequences? 
• What economies will adjust and thrive in the new environment and which ones will face more difficult challenges? 
• How do policymakers ensure they are preparing their constituencies to be competitive in this new environment? 
• How do individuals, companies, and nations thrive during a period of dynamic change?