Have we reached or surpassed the limits of sustainability? What will it take to support a global population of some 9.3 billion by the middle of the century?[1] To begin addressing these questions, one must look at the strategic resources of food, water, and energy and the complex inter-linkages that exist between them. How leaders meet the challenge of managing these resources will have a significant impact on economic development, poverty reduction, social welfare, geopolitics, and stability and security the world over.

Food

Thanks to advances in agricultural technology in the second half of the 20th century, farmers have dramatically increased their crop yields, helping the world avert a once predicted fate of mass starvation and malnutrition.[2] Despite this progress, 925 million people face food shortages and 150 million children younger than 5 are malnourished. [3] Poor land management and the overuse of fertilizers are causing land degradation, soil erosion, and desertification on a massive scale from the Amazon to the Yangtze. Degradation, on top of sharp increases in food prices over the past decade, have left many in the developing world without the means to grow their own food. Since the 2007-2008 food crisis, the world has witnessed a surge in agricultural commodities prices. World Bank President Robert Zoellick has stated, “We have been in a period of extraordinary volatility in food prices, which poses a real danger of irreparable harm to the most vulnerable nations…Food prices are the single gravest threat facing developing countries."[4]

The dual forces of rising oil prices and increased production of biofuels have exacerbated this problem by increasing the supply-side cost to farmers, in addition to diverting staple crops away from kitchen tables. For instance, a 10 percent increase in the cost of crude oil now equals a 2.7 percent increase in the Food Price Index.[5] Water availability, as well as biotechnology, will play key roles in the ability to expand food production.[6] The task is daunting, as food demand is projected to grow 70 percent by 2050, particularly grain by 3 Gt and meat by 200 Mt.[7]

As an added concern, crop diseases menace food production and availability. The black sigatoka (Mycosphaerella fijiensis), for instance, affects bananas, while roundworm and leaf miner are killing coffee. These crop diseases can lead to global food shortages as export bans, such as those seen in Russia, prohibit producers from selling their goods internationally. In addition to crop diseases that kill plants, there are those that pose a threat to humans, such as the E. coli bacteria. As the global community saw in May-June 2011, outbreaks of E. coli can be disastrous, not only to victims of the disease, but also to farmers devastated by sharply decreased demand, such as the farmers in Spain who wrongfully lost millions of dollars in cucumber sales. It is estimated that in May 2011 alone, E. coli caused a decrease in the price of vegetables by 13 percent compared to previous years.[8] The interconnectedness of global markets, while increasing availability of food to many, also increases risk of communicable disease and contagious famine.

Water

According to John Hamre, President of CSIS, "What is now a global water challenge will soon become a global water crisis." [9] Almost four billion people will live in areas of high water stress by 2030 if governments and individuals do not change their habits and use this finite resource more responsibly. [10] Today, more than 884 million people, or one out of every eight persons, live without safe or reliable access to this resource. [11] and the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 88 percent of diarrheal deaths are caused by unsafe water, sanitation, or hygiene.[12] Inadequate access to water is linked to malnutrition, underdevelopment, and geopolitical instability. These problems will likely persist into the coming decades unless we dramatically change our perceptions of this resource and price it accordingly.

The scarcity problem is only compounded by the predicted “rise of the rest,” including China and India, and their growing appetite for consumption. Affluent individuals use upwards of 660 gallons of water per day for personal use and in the production of the products consumed, when only 13.2 gallons are required for one person to survive.[13] Future water shortages could significantly hinder economic development and trigger serious tensions across the world.

Energy

Volatile oil prices and supply disruptions have led to international spats verging on geopolitical crises in recent years, and it is likely that tensions will flare again in the future if world energy demand grows as anticipated—forty-five percent by 2030. By that time, fossil fuels will account for eighty percent of our energy consumption. [14] Despite continued pressures on the physical environment, oil will remain king and only modest advances will be made in the area of renewable energy resources. Aggregate increases in alternative sources of energy will be offset by high consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas driven by the astronomical rise of China and India. Together, these two countries will be responsible for over half of the increase in energy demand by 2050. [15] Governments and private companies across the world are pouring money into energy development projects in order to keep up with domestic demand and to capitalize on burgeoning industries. One major study found that the United States is capable of producing enough biomass derived ethanol—ninety billion gallons—to displace nearly a third of gasoline use each year by 2030, though with tremendous upfront costs that make little sense when oil prices are low. [16]

Our addiction to hydrocarbons comes at a great cost to the environment. Recent evidence suggests that our penchant for petroleum may inflict irreversible damage, with one study finding that carbon dioxide emissions may affect climate systems thousands of years into the future. [17] A truly global plan of action to address climate change remains elusive, and it may become increasingly difficult for nations to cooperate if oil wells start to run dry.