Research Agenda

In 2009 and beyond, the Global Aging Initiative will be pursuing a broad and interdisciplinary agenda.  The following projects are already underway or soon to be launched:

Demographics and Geopolitics in the 21st Century
In May 2008, GAI published The Graying of the Great Powers, the culmination of a two-year study that investigates how global demographic trends are reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the 21st century. The book assesses how population aging and decline could constrain the ability of the United States and its traditional developed-country allies to maintain national security. It also explores the implications of dramatic demographic shifts in the developing world—from resurgent youth bulges in the Islamic world to premature aging in China and population implosion in Russia. GAI is now exploring possible follow-on studies. Candidates include: the security implications of smaller families and aging electorates in developed countries; the impact of echo youth booms in the Muslim World; the connections between demographic decline and neoauthoritarian reaction in Russia; and a critical evaluation of data and projections on Europe’s Muslim population.

Global Aging Vulnerability Index
CSIS’ path breaking Aging Vulnerability Index, developed by GAI in 2003, represents the first attempt to develop a comprehensive measure of the global aging challenge that is comparable across the developed countries. GAI is now in the process of updating the original Index to reflect new demographic and economic projections and recent reforms to old-age benefit systems in a number of countries. It also plans to develop an interactive website based on the Index that features data retrieval, charting, and sensitivity analysis, as well as continuously updated news and analysis of global aging issues. The site would function as an information switchboard for a community that includes everyone who makes or uses long-term forecasts of demographic, fiscal, and economic trends—whether in government, business, or the media.

China's Long March to Retirement Reform
 Although China is still a relatively young nation, it is about to undergo a stunning demographic transformation. By 2040, there will be 400 million Chinese elders, of whom 100 million will be aged 80 and over. In 2004, GAI released The Graying of the Middle Kingdom,a highly influential report that highlighted the economic, social, and political risks if China fails to prepare for the aging challenge. China’s Long March to Retirement Reform, which was released in April 2009, updates and expands GAI’s original study. It offers a “report card” on recent government reform efforts. It also presents a detailed proposal for creating a new national pension system that combines a universal floor of poverty protection with funded personal accounts. 

The Aging of Latin America
GAI has just completed its first in-depth study on the aging challenge in Latin America. The report, which focuses on Brazil, Chile, and Mexico, assesses Latin America’s “retirement preparedness.” It compares and contrasts the progress that the three countries have made in putting in place adequate and affordable retirement systems—from Chile (the original "privatizer") to Brazil (which retains an expensive pay-as-you-go system). It also looks more broadly at economic, social, and cultural factors that might help or hinder countries’ successful response to the aging challenge, and in particular their ability to boost economic growth and per capita incomes before their age waves roll in.

Global Aging Forum
The Global Aging Forum, now in its sixth year, is a members only roundtable where sponsors and select experts from the worlds of business, policy, and government meet to discuss "global aging." There is a brief presentation by a prominent policy or thought leader followed by an off-the-record discussion. The sessions focus on real world policy problems and solutions. Speakers have included Brad Belt (Executive Director of the PBGC), Leon Kass (Chairman of the President’s Council on Bioethics), Bill Novelli (Chief Executive Officer of the AARP), Adair Turner (Chairman of the UK Pensions’ Commission), and David Walker (Comptroller General of the United States).

GAI is also exploring possible future projects in the following areas:

Human Resources in an Aging World
The project would investigate the challenges and opportunities that global aging poses for employers worldwide. As workforces age, businesses will have to retool, physically and organizationally, to take advantage of the older employee. Growing labor shortages in the developed world will put a premium on new forms of human capital formation (such as lifelong career training) and on innovations in cross-border outsourcing, immigrant hiring, and diversity training. Elder care may compete with childcare as a benefit. Cuts in government old-age entitlements may create a growing demand for larger pension and health benefits from employers—and for new ways to extend work spans via flexible retirement and “rehirement.” The project, which will serve as a long-term “vision scan” for HR professionals, will be of particular value to large global firms that are encountering many of these issues already.

Demography and Financial Markets
Population aging and population decline in the developed world could have a large and potentially destabilizing impact on global financial markets. As the share of the population in the retirement years rises, many economists predict that private savings rates—and asset prices—could experience a dramatic decline. Meanwhile, the growing cost of pay-as-you-go retirement and health benefit programs could lead to large and chronic public-sector deficits, further undermining national savings. Slowly growing or contracting labor forces in the developed world may also mean slower economic growth, falling investment demand, and lower long-term returns to capital. The project would assess the relative importance of these effects and explore their real world implications, including the likely impact on the magnitude and direction of global capital flows.


Demography and Globalization
The project would examine potential synergies between aging developed nations and younger developing nations. While divergent global demographics pose a challenge to world peace and prosperity in the 21st century, they also offer an historic opportunity to forge new bonds between the world’s rich and poor nations. Immigration and outsourcing can match jobs and workers, helping to ease labor shortages and boost economic growth. Cross-border investment can match savings activity and investment opportunities, allowing savers in older and more slowly growing economies to enjoy the higher returns available in younger and faster growing economies around the world. Although this “globalization strategy” must overcome real obstacles, including the lack of transparency and security in the capital markets of many developing countries, it holds out the promise that young people can help themselves by helping to support old people across international borders. As such, it is an essential strategy for an aging world.