Preventing Proliferation Cascades

Over the past 18 months, Iran’s nuclear program has continued to expand.  Neighboring states have begun to signal in various ways that they are increasingly concerned about these nuclear developments, and some are contemplating responses that could exacerbate the current threat to regional stability.  The greatest risk is that Iran’s activities could lead to a “cascade of proliferation” in the surrounding region, where multiple states seek to balance its nuclear capabilities with their own. 
 
This project tracks nascent nuclear programs in the Middle East that have appeared in the years since Iran’s nuclear activities have been brought to light. Many countries in the region, such as Egypt and Turkey, have tried unsuccessfully in the past to initiate civil nuclear programs but their efforts have assumed a greater impetus within the last few years. Preventing Proliferation Cascades examines the trajectory of these programs and seeks to define ways in which the worst-case scenario for regional stability and the nonproliferation regime – the emergence of several states seeking to match Iran’s efforts – can be avoided.