Feb 12, 2012
Vol. 1, No. 1 (July 1999)
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Regional Overview
Ralph A. Cossa, Pacific Forum CSIS
Despite recent trends in Asia and elsewhere toward multilateral cooperation, bilateral relations remain at the core of international relations and, as this Journal will document, developments in one set of relationships can dramatically impact other bilateral interactions in addition to affecting the prospects for broader regional stability.
U.S. - Japan
Michael J. Green, Olin Fellow for Asia Security Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
In the first three months of Japan’s new fiscal year, relations with the United States were comparatively positive. While Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi’s official state visit to the United States in early May (the first by a Japanese prime minister since Nakasone) was not exactly sizzling with excitement, it was characterized by a show of warmth and confidence from President Clinton. In the weeks after the summit, Obuchi’s domestic and international standing was further strengthened by the surprising news that Japan’s economy grew by 1.9% in the first quarter of the fiscal year and by the passage of the Defense Guidelines in both houses of the Diet -- not a bad showing for a man earlier dismissed by the U.S. media as “cold pizza.”
U.S. - China
Bonnie Glaser, CSIS/Pacific Forum CSIS
Just one year after President Clinton’s visit to China, which both American and Chinese governments hailed as a great success and a positive step toward establishing a constructive strategic partnership, bilateral dialogue and cooperation on a host of critical issues are at a standstill and relations are mired in mutual acrimony and distrust. The unfortunate tragedy of NATO’s accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade unleashed a nationalistic fervor and provoked a harsh response from the Chinese government. Domestic critics in both capitals are challenging the policies of their respective governments and making it difficult for leaders to follow a course that serves their country’s national interests.
U.S. - Korea
The Sun is Still Shining . . . at Least for Now
David Brown, Associate Director, Asian Studies, The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Dealing with North Korea remains the central issue in U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK) relations. Despite quite different policy priorities toward Pyongyang, the Clinton and Kim Dae-jung Administrations were able to maintain mutually supportive policies toward North Korea during the past quarter. This was possible because of consultations and accommodation between the administrations in Seoul and Washington, but also because North Korea generally refrained from those actions that would have made it difficult for Seoul and Washington to reconcile their differences.
U.S. - Russia
Keith Bush, Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Kosovo crisis dominated relations between the U.S. and Russia during this period. Even before the U.S.-led NATO force commenced its aerial bombardment of Serbia, anti-U.S. and anti-Western sentiment within Russia was running at the highest pitch in recent memory, and certainly since the end of the Cold War. Whereas Russian antipathy to the expansion of NATO had been confined largely to the Moscow and St. Petersburg chattering classes, the assault on Serbia struck a chord among the broader public and indignation was also expressed among the younger generation and the intelligentsia. It brought to a head the growing sense of frustration, impotence, and irrelevance felt by most Russians as their nation was sidelined on the international stage by the sole remaining superpower, and their economy continued to deteriorate--for which many blamed Western advisers and international financial institutions. The NATO bombing campaign exacerbated these sentiments to the extent that most polls showed over 80 percent--and sometimes up to 98 percent--of respondents condemning the U.S. and NATO.
U.S. - Southeast Asia
Sheldon Simon, Professor, Arizona State University
There’s good news and bad news this quarter when it comes to U.S. relations with the various members of ASEAN. On the plus column, Philippine relations have improved markedly with the passage of the Visiting Forces Agreement, making possible military exercises between the two allies once again. U.S.-Indonesian relations are also on the upswing, given its sudden embrace of democracy. However, relations with America’s other formal ASEAN ally, Thailand, remain strained due to U.S. failure to support the bid by Thailand’s Deputy Prime Minister to become Director General of the World Trade Organization.
China - Southeast Asia
Some Progress, along with Disagreement and Disarray
Carlyle A. Thayer, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies
Chinese relations with the ASEAN nations have remained cordial during the quarter, with the notable exception of Sino-Philippine relations, which have steadily deteriorated and, to some extent, have taken Philippine bilateral ties with the rest of its ASEAN colleagues down with them. Disagreements over Chinese actions on Mischief Reef caused Philippine President Estrada to cancel a scheduled May visit to Beijing, while a senior Philippines foreign ministry official complained about the Philippines becoming “an orphan” in ASEAN on this issue. Meanwhile, China continued to improve relations with most of the remaining ASEAN states, negotiating a framework for future relations with Malaysia and Thailand and developing a new mechanism to govern Sino- Vietnamese relations.
China - Taiwan
Gerrit W. Gong, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Cross-straits negotiations have reopened in anticipation of the anticipated fall visit to Taiwan of Wang Daohan, the Chairman of Beijing's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait. However, the downturn in Sino-U.S. relations--evident before Zhu Rongji's inconclusive April 1999 U.S. visit and underscored by Beijing's and Washington's divergent interpretations of the May 7, 1999, bombing of the PRC embassy in Belgrade--is complicating relations between Beijing and Taipei. China remains concerned that U.S. actions in Kosovo may presage similar interference in the PRC's "internal affairs" relating to Taiwan. This can cause a hardening of Chinese positions vis-à-vis Taiwan and make already sensitive issues like theater missile defense (TMD) even more contentious. For its part, Taipei realizes that its own interaction with Beijing becomes more difficult whenever U.S.-China relations are either too strained or too close. Taipei sees risks as well as promise in the upcoming cross-straits dialogue.
China - Korea
Scott Snyder, The Asia Foundation
Evaluation of China-South Korea relations by necessity entails consideration of China's approach to the Peninsula as a whole. PRC-ROK relations are vibrant and have progressed quickly since diplomatic normalization. Economic ties are significant, and relations have moved well beyond this field into the political and security realms. A great deal of contact between South Korea and China is done secretly or with little public fanfare, primarily so as not to unnecessarily offend North Korea, with which China this year marks a half century of diplomatic relations. Moreover, Seoul and Beijing have proceeded strongly but quietly so as to not complicate respective relations with Washington and others.
Japan - China
James J. Przystup, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University
In a relationship shadowed by the past and marked by concerns about the future, Japan’s relations with China experienced a period of relative calm during the past quarter.
Japan - Korea
Victor D. Cha, Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Since normalization in 1965, Japan-Republic of Korea (ROK) relations have been propelled by two countervailing dynamics. On the one hand, the inability to overcome their difficult shared history has impeded genuine improvements in contemporary relations. On the other, pressing economic and security developments that have often compelled pragmatic cooperation. At times this cooperation has been substantive, but often it is of a superficial and transitory nature given the negative history between the two.
Japan - Russia
Moving Ahead, But on Separate Tracks
Janet Snyder, Hawaii Tribune-Herald
Russo-Japanese relations remained on track during the past quarter and were highlighted by a brief but significant meeting between Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi and Russian President Boris Yeltsin during the G-8 meeting in Cologne. While both sides appear committed to their previously stated goal of achieving a peace treaty “by the year 2000,” this goal—if reached (and this remains a big if)—is more likely to be a December 31, 2000 New Year’s Eve crash project than a January 1, 2000 New Year’s Day celebration.
China - Russia
NATO’s Unintended Consequence: A Deeper Strategic Partnership . . . Or More
Yu Bin, Wittenberg University
Sino-Russian relations have improved steadily in recent years due to mutual concerns about U.S. unilateralism. However, while both sides proclaimed a strategic partnership aimed at promoting a multipolar world, both still placed higher priority on their respective relations with the U.S. than with one another. This could be changing, however, as positions harden, especially in Beijing, in the wake of the Kosovo campaign and the NATO Bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade. Now, both sides are seriously discussing a further deepening of their strategic partnership, to include the formation of a formal defense alliance, along with significant arms sales involving stateof- the-art Russian technologies.