Nov 8, 2009
Vol. 1, No. 2 (Oct. 1999)
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Regional Overview
Ralph A. Cossa, Pacific Forum CSIS
The region’s two premier annual multilateral events took place during the last quarter--on the security side, there was the ministerial-level ASEAN Regional Forum and, in the economic arena, the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Meeting. Each served to underscore the central importance of the region’s key bilateral relationships, even as they demonstrated some modest, limited progress in developing broader-based cooperation.
U.S. - Japan
Still in the Eye of the Hurricane?
Michael J. Green, Olin Fellow for Asia Security Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
U.S.-Japan relations this quarter were remarkably calm on the trade front, while important progress was made in bilateral security cooperation. Japan and the U.S. stood more-orless in lock step on North Korea policy and reached important agreements on intelligence satellites and Theater Missile Defense (TMD). All three of these could have been irritants in the alliance, but turned-out on the positive side of the ledger. Some incremental progress was also made on the Okinawa base problem. Meanwhile, trade disputes on steel and macroeconomic policy fell to a low simmer while none of the leading U.S. presidential campaigns have focused on Japan as a trade problem. The Obuchi government’s new three-way coalition with the Komeito and Liberal Party provides a much more stable political basis for addressing bilateral issues in the months ahead. The only frightening problem looming in the U.S.-Japan alliance is how to handle the July 2000 G-8 Summit in Okinawa. If there is no progress over the next quarter to resolve the Futenma base relocation problem, Obuchi and Clinton could face a disastrous reception when they meet in Nago, Okinawa in July. But Obuchi might even get lucky on that one too.
U.S. - China
Bonnie Glaser, CSIS/Pacific Forum CSIS
After a freeze of several months following the accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, Sino-American relations have begun to thaw. The mid-September meeting between Presidents Bill Clinton and Jiang Zemin signaled Beijing’s readiness to resume high-level contacts with the United States, but it remained uncertain whether the Chinese are prepared to restore normalcy to other facets of the bilateral relationship. Still absent are indications that China is willing to resume military exchanges with the United States or reinstate the official dialogues on human rights, arms control, and non-proliferation that Beijing suspended in the wake of the embassy bombing. At the direction of their presidents, Chinese and American negotiators have proceeded with discussions aimed at reaching an agreement on China’s entry into the World Trade Organization. Completing a deal this year remains possible, but may prove politically difficult in both countries.
U.S. - Korea
Is There Light at the End of the Missile Tunnel?
David Brown, Associate Director, Asian Studies, The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
The past three months have seen Washington and Seoul pursuing a full court press to persuade North Korea to back away from apparent plans for a test of the Taepodong II missile, which would increase tensions in Korea and destabilize the region. Fears of an imminent test in July gave way to optimism that the September U.S.-DPRK talks in Berlin had produced agreement on a “de facto moratorium” on testing. The coming weeks will show whether that moratorium can be developed into something more concrete and lasting. Meanwhile, South Korea’s desire to develop its own 500 km range missile remains a possible sore point, as do potentially differing views on resolving the naval boundary dispute between the North and South.
U.S. - Russia
Thaw after Kosovo Marred by Money-Laundering Allegations
Keith Bush, Center for Strategic and International Studies
From the nadir in U.S.-Russian relations since the Cold War occasioned by the NATO air campaign against Serbia, a slow improvement in ties could be detected during this period, even if Russia played the aggrieved party for all it was worth. Then the money-laundering scandal broke. The alleged involvement of Russia in the transfer of billions of dollars through U.S. banks, and claims of kickbacks to members of the Yeltsin family cast further shadows over Russia’s image in the U.S. and in the West. The quarter ended amid signs of partial disengagement, further prompted by continued disagreement over a variety of arms control issues.
U.S. - Southeast Asia
Relations with Vietnam and the East Timor Tragedy
Sheldon Simon, Professor, Arizona State University
The major event this quarter has been the carnage attendant upon East Timor’s referendum on independence from Indonesia. Attempting to tread a thin line between supporting Indonesia during its own political transition while deploring the depredations of prointegration Indonesian army-backed militias in East Timor, Washington finally joined a unanimous UN Security Council resolution for international peacekeepers. Mixed relations with Vietnam also featured prominently this quarter, with a new trade accord on the positive side despite the persistence of frictions over human rights.
China - Southeast Asia
Beijing Plans for a Long-Term Partnership and Benefits from Anti-Western Sentiment
Carlyle A. Thayer, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies
During the third quarter of 1999, Chinese diplomacy toward ASEAN and selected Southeast Asian states took a decidedly new turn. Beijing is now demonstrating with words and deeds that it can be a positive and constructive player in regional security. China moved to diffuse tensions in its relations with the Philippines over disputed territory in the South China Sea. China also dispatched police to serve in East Timor with the UN Security Council-sanctioned INTERFET (International Force East Timor). Finally, China has continued to give priority to four regional states with which it earlier signed long-term agreements: Brunei, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam.
China - Taiwan
Washington Caught in the Middle...Again
Gerrit W. Gong, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Taiwan President Lee Tung-hui’s July 9 announcement that cross-Strait relations should be handled on a “special state-to-state” basis has strained already shaky relations between Beijing and Taipei and has the U.S. once again caught in the middle. This is especially true since Chinese President Jiang Zemin continues to identify “peaceful reunification under the ‘one country, two systems’ model with Taiwan” as one of the Mainland’s “cardinal principles.” Meanwhile, Beijing’s insistence on a full retraction makes it extremely unlikely that the planned fall 1999 visit by the head of the PRC’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS), Wang Daohan, will take place. One positive if unintended consequence of the Taiwan-generated crisis was the incentive it provided to Chinese President Jiang Zemin and President Clinton to put Sino-U.S. relations back on a positive track following the latter’s unequivocal re-endorsement of America’s “one China” policy.
China - Korea
Focus on Stability Despite New Challenges
Scott Snyder, The Asia Foundation
China and South Korea marked significant advances in official economic, political, and security cooperation in the third quarter of 1999; however, the effects of increased peopleto- people exchange between China and South Korea have created a mixed bag of emerging challenges which may signal future difficulties in the relationship. Most significantly, China and South Korea established security consultations between Defense Ministers and President Kim Dae-jung gave credit to counterpart Jiang Zemin for playing a significant role in convincing North Korea to defer plans to pursue further long-range missile testing. However, problems with illegal immigration to South Korea by ethnic Koreans from Northeastern China and with illegal activities in China by South Koreans who have sought to respond to needs of North Korean refugees both emerged as flash points for controversy.
Japan - China
Progressing, but Still Facing History
James J. Przystup, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University
In contrast to Jiang Zemin’s heavy emphasis on the lessons of history during the November1998 China-Japan Summit, Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi’s July 8-9 visit to China focused on the present state of the relationship. Japan’s defense policy and World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations took center-stage. During the summit, Chinese and Japanese negotiators reached agreement on China’s bilateral WTO accession agreement. Shortly after the summit, on July 30, Japan and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding with regard to destruction of the chemical weapons left behind in China by the Imperial Army.
Japan - Korea
Seoul-Tokyo Cooperation on North Korea, Tried, Tested, and True (thus far)
Victor D. Cha, Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Three themes emerge from the interaction and events of the past quarter in Japan-Republic of Korea (ROK) relations. First, cooperation on issues of security and history continued between these two American allies, achieving certain milestones. Second, from a U.S. perspective, this cooperation paid dividends in terms of averting a Taepodong II crisis with North Korea. Third, the success in coordinating policy, both bilaterally and in a trilateral context with the United States, will again be tested as the focus of activity in the “post-Berlin” phase of the North Korea problem is likely to shift to the Japan-DPRK dyad.
Japan - Russia
Moving Ahead on Military Ties, Diplomacy on Back Burner
Janet Snyder, Hawaii Tribune-Herald
Japan and Russia posted marked progress in the development of military ties in recent months, but the thorny question of concluding a peace treaty to officially end World War II hostilities remained on the back burner. Unprecedented naval cooperation developed this quarter, including a port visit to Japan by a Russian cruiser and an observation visit to the Russian naval facilities at Vladivostok by Japanese Defense Minister Hosei Norota. Meanwhile, the clock ticks toward the two sides’ self-imposed deadline of 2000 to complete the peace treaty.
China - Russia
Coping With the Post-Kosovo Fallout
Yu Bin, Wittenberg University
Although domestic social instability, separatism, and terrorism started to increasingly preoccupy leaders of both countries, Moscow and Beijing continued to feel the chilly impact of the post-war (Balkan/Kosovo) world and responded by deepening their strategic partnership in various areas. However, the worse seems to be over, at least for the time being, for Russia and China in their respective relations with Western powers, as compared with the second quarter of 1999, when both Moscow and Beijing were sidelined and aggravated by U.S.-led NATO actions during the Kosovo crisis. Indeed, after Moscow was invited back to the Kosovo settlement and China’s anti-American sentiments following the bombing of the Chinese embassy in May subsided, both started to mend fences with Washington.
Indonesia - Australia
Richard W. Baker, East-West Center
The state of Indonesia-Australia relations has deteriorated--from strained to nearly shattered--in recent months as a result of the ongoing crisis in East Timor. As the quarter ended the prospects for an early recovery in the relationship were very uncertain. The Australian-led international force in East Timor faced a long and dangerous process of taking control of the territory from Indonesian-backed militias, and the possibility of sustained guerrilla terrorist opposition supported by the Indonesian armed forces could not be ruled out. An additional complication was the potential impact of heightened nationalistic and anti-Australian sentiment on the election of a new Indonesian president in late October, and therefore on the composition and attitude toward Australia of the new Indonesian administration due to take office by January 1, 2000.