Vol. 2, No. 1 (April 2000)

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Regional Overview

There is a natural inclination in Washington during a presidential election year to want to put Asia policy on autopilot. Some disturbing trends emerging in the first quarter of the year argue against a policy of benign neglect, however. Concerns about U.S. unilateralism continue to be raised in Asia, not just by America’s critics but by its closest allies as well, even as others still question Washington’s interest in the region. Apprehensions about significant shifts in American foreign policy, always evident during an election year, also appear to be rising due to uncertainty about the views of both presumed presidential candidates on key issues that impact upon Asian security. Added to this, of course, is the impending transfer of power in Taiwan to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and its implications for cross-Strait, Sino-U.S., and U.S.-Taiwan relations and for broader regional security. Meanwhile, ASEAN’s growing disunity is ringing alarm bells, while raising concerns about its broader regional leadership role. Also of concern are the unintended consequences of President Clinton’s visit to India and Pakistan There are, of course, countervailing positive trends and the negative ones are for the most part manageable. But they will require careful attention; autopilot is just not good enough.

U.S. - Japan

The Security Treaty at 40—Strong but with Complaints about Back Pain

Michael Jonathan Green, Olin Fellow for Asia Security Studies, Council on Foreign Relations

The U.S.-Japan Security Treaty turned 40 in January amid calls for more ownership of the alliance for Japan. U.S. frustration with Japan also grew as collisions over host nation support and a number of minor irritants, such as trash burning near a U.S. base, implementation of the Defense Guidelines, and air traffic control over Okinawa, impeded forward progress. In addition, Liberal Democratic Party support of economic reform is quickly dwindling and causing some consternation in Washington. Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi’s incapacitation in the beginning of April and the subsequent election of Yoshiro Mori by the Diet will not change the basic direction of the alliance, but could complicate the political environment.

U.S. - China

Taiwan Tops the Bilateral Agenda

Bonnie Glaser, CSIS/Pacific Forum CSIS

The year 2000 opened with a flurry of contacts between American and Chinese officials. The bilateral military relationship, suspended since the U.S. accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, resumed and an agenda for dialogue and exchanges between the two militaries was agreed upon and set in motion. A senior delegation composed of military and civilian American officials visited Beijing as efforts continued to get Sino-U.S. relations back on a normal track and re-engaged in discussions of security issues of common concern. The election of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Chen Shui-bian as president of Taiwan caught both the U.S. and China by surprise and prompted Washington to send envoys to both sides of the Strait to urge caution and restraint. In the U.S., the Clinton administration embarked on a major campaign to win approval from Congress for Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status for China.

U.S. - Korea

Staying on Course through Election Campaigns

David Brown, Associate Director, Asian Studies, The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies

Washington and Seoul have been preoccupied with election campaigns during the past three months. Their policies toward North Korea, although controversial, have not been significant issues in either the National Assembly election in Korea or the presidential primaries in the U.S., thanks primarily to the absence of provocative actions by Pyongyang. Close consultations at the official level have maintained the compatibility of the policies each administration continues to pursue with Pyongyang, which has focused much of its attention this quarter on diplomatic initiatives toward Japan, China, Italy, and others.

U.S. - Russia

Putin’s Russia

Toby Trister Gati, Senior International Adviser, Akin, Gump, Strauss, Hauer and Feld

For the first time in Russian history, supreme executive power has been peacefully transferred via national democratic elections. Vladimir Putin emerged as a president haunted by Russia’s authoritarian past and galvanized by a rebounding economy and a re-invigorated government. Putin’s attempts to reach out to the West demonstrate that he is seeking friendlier ties. However, Russia’s actions in Chechnya continue to be a stumbling block in that endeavor. Putin’s ability to make some painful political and economic adjustments will dictate whether Russia takes a step forward or back. Meanwhile, despite the best of intentions, it will not be easy to develop a new understanding between the U.S. and Russia on where we go from here.

U.S. - Southeast Asia

Revitalizing Military Ties, the Cambodian Tribunal, and Problems with UNCTAD

Sheldon Simon, Professor, Arizona State University

The United States revitalized military ties with the Philippines in the "Balikatan" joint exercise from late January to early March, the first major military exercise between these armed forces since 1995. Defense Secretary Cohen visited Vietnam to establish limited military ties. Washington also joined UN efforts to add international jurists to the Cambodian tribunal being created to try surviving Khmer Rouge leaders. Meanwhile, in Bangkok, the February meeting of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) revealed differences between developing and developed states over free trade, labor protection, and patent rights similar to those in the failed December World Trade Organization Seattle meeting.

China - Southeast Asia

Tensions Promote Discussions on a Code of Conduct

Carlyle A. Thayer, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies

During the first quarter of the year China-ASEAN relations were almost wholly focused on territorial disputes. China’s relations with the Philippines and Vietnam presented contrastingpatterns. Encroachments by Chinese fishing vessels in the waters around Scarborough Shoal became a constant irritant and led to the exchange of diplomatic protests and strongly worded statements between Manila and Beijing. At the same time, China reacted negatively to the revival of U.S.-Philippines joint military exercises. In contrast, China and Vietnam moved to capitalize on the signing of a Treaty on the Land Border by keeping the momentum of negotiations going. China and Vietnam used the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations to wax effusively about their “traditional friendly relations.”

China - Taiwan

Cross-Strait Cross-Fire

Gerrit W. Gong, Director, Asian Studies Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Chen Shui-bian’s victory on March 18, 2000 to become Taiwan’s president-elect with 39.3 percent of the vote dramatically changes Taiwan’s domestic political topology and thereby the assumptions and framework for China-Taiwan cross-Strait relations. Chen’s victory also ended a fifty year Kuomintang reign over Taiwan, placing the Democratic Progressive Party behind the wheel for the first time. The election also served to heighten cross-Strait tension. Prior to the election, on February 21, China issued a White Paper on cross-Strait relations, taking a more aggressive rhetorical stance toward Taiwan. Since the election, Beijing seems to be taking a wait-and-see approach, but it is unclear just how long China will be content with simply watching events unfold.

China - Korea

Upgrading Communication Channels, Messages Are Getting Clearer

Scott Snyder, The Asia Foundation

An unprecedented January visit to Seoul by PRC Defense Minister Chi Haotian marked the completion of the first exchange of visits between top-level Chinese an South Korean defense officials, following ROK Defense Minister Cho Song-tae’s August 1999 visit to Beijing. China also sent clear negative signals prior to Chi’s visit regarding the limits of its willingness to consider international opinion regarding the plight of North Korean refugees, repatriating seven refugees despite strong ROK protests.

Japan - China

No Escaping History –or the Future

James J. Przystup, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University

Japan’s relations with China began the year on a positive note, with the announcement of a FY 2000 budget request to provide for the clean-up of chemical weapons abandoned in China by the Imperial army. However, history soon proved to be very much alive as underscored by the Osaka conference on the Nanjing Massacre. Likewise contemporary China’s own problems -- the Dalai Lama, Falun Gong, and Lee Teng-hui -- continued to affect Sino-Japanese relations. Other developments during the quarter, including cyber attacks on Japanese government home pages, (in part originating in China), the 15 percent increase in China’s military spending announced at the National People’s Congress, and the Presidential election on Taiwan also posed new challenges. On the economic side, Toyota announced final approval of a joint venture, and Tokyo unveiled new Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) commitments. Even as the new ODA package was announced in Beijing, the Japanese ambassador publicly admonished China for failing adequately to appreciate the efforts Japan was making. At the same time, China’s Supreme Court acted to make claims by Japanese banks against China’s bankrupt international trade and investment corporations (ITICs) virtually unrecoverable.

Japan - Korea

The Pre-Game Continues....

Victor D. Cha, Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University

The quarter was a relatively quiet one for Japan-ROK and Japan-DPRK relations. There is no denying important and requisite interim steps taken by Tokyo and Pyongyang in preliminary normalization talks. There is no denying modest but not immoderate steps by Seoul and Tokyo in cementing relations. Trilateral policy coordination with the United States also continued. But these developments are best seen as the “pre-game” for the next quarter when formal Japan- DPRK normalization talks commence, a high-level DPRK visit to Washington is imminent, a Japan-ROK summit is in the making, and a high-level inter-Korean meeting remains a possibility.

Japan - Russia

Japan Struggles to Gain Attention

Joseph Ferguson, Fulbright Fellow, Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences

Tokyo has spent the first three months of the new millennium just trying to figure out Vladimir Putin. The Japanese government has been sending strong signals to Russia and its new president, but the calls have remained unanswered. Moscow’s inattention to Tokyo further complicates relational inequities, as Japan continues to be the only nation extending bilateral credits to Russia. However, low-level public and private contacts flourished this quarter in the form of cultural exchange, legal cooperation, and business loans. Complicating this relationship is an awareness that Chinese and U.S. actions will play a heavy hand in negotiating Japan-Russia ties. Nonetheless, Japanese leaders are hopeful -- if perhaps overoptimistic -- that a strong Russian leader will be willing and able to “move the relationship forward” (i.e. to make concessions to Japan).

China - Russia

New Century, New Face, and China’s “Putin Puzzle”

Yu Bin, Wittenberg University

The sudden changing of the guard in the Kremlin at the turn of the century led to a cooling and holding phase for Russo-Chinese relations. Although minister-level contacts continued after Yeltsin’s grand exit from power and before Putin’s election as president, some second thoughts or reassessment of bilateral relations seemed to be in progress in the Kremlin. Putin’s cautiousness on a China policy, deliberate or not, was in sharp contrast to an unprecedented Russian “omnidirectional” foreign policy in Asia, demonstrated by Foreign Minister Ivanov’s travels in the region. The Putin puzzle seemed to worry China, which had every reason to press for stronger ties with Russia as relations with both Taiwan and the United States started to whither.