2016 Global Forecast

An annual collection of wide-ranging essays by CSIS experts, 2016 Global Forecast discusses the issues that will matter most to America and the world’s security and prosperity in the year ahead.

PART 1: GEOSTRATEGY

Reconnecting of Asia
John J. Hamre

PART 2: U.S. STRATEGY

America’s Changing Role in the World
Kathleen H. Hicks

Seeking the Right Strategy for Our Time
Michael J. Green

The Challenge to U.S. Leadership
James A. Lewis

PART 3: MIDDLE EAST

Isis (Re)Writes History
Jon B. Alterman

Wanted: A U.S. Strategy for Syria and Iraq
Melissa G. Dalton

Iran After the Agreement
Anthony H. Cordesman

U.S.-Israel Ties After the Agreement
Haim Malka

PART 4: RUSSIA, EUROPE, AND EURASIA

Putin’s Europe
Heather A. Conley

Inside the Kremlin
Olga Oliker

A NATO Strategy for the Eastern Flank
Jeffery Rathke

Sino-Russian Cooperation
Jeffery Mankoff

PART 5: NORTHEAST, SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTH ASIA

Reform Cold, Politics Hot: President Xi Jinping at Mid-Term
Christopher K. Johnson

Economic Consequences of China’s Slowdown
Scott Kennedy

Geopolitical Consequences of China’s Slowdown
Bonnie S. Glaser and Matthew Funaiole

Beyond TPP: Shaping an Economic Strategy in Asia
Ernest Bower, Matthew Goodman, and Scott Miller

Interested in India’s Geopolitical Future? Look to its States
Rick Rossow

North Korean Vulnerability?
Victor Cha and Lisa Collins

PART 6: AFRICA

Rising Africa Faces a Critical Test
Jennifer Cooke

Terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa
Thomas M. Sanderson

PART 7: INSIDE THE PENTAGON

Fiscal Futures, U.S. Forces, and Strategic Choices
Mark Cancian and Todd Harrison

The Battle over How to Save Defense Acquisition
Andrew Hunter

PART 8: EVOLVING THREATS AND CAPABILITIES

Space and Security
A Conversation with Sean O'Keefe

Nuclear Deterrence in a Disordered World
Rebecca K.C. Hersman

The Need for Global Zero
Sharon Squassoni

Missile Defense and Deterrence
Thomas Karako

Disrupting the Cyber Status Quo
Denise E. Zheng

PART 9: ENERGY AND SECURITY

Implications of Sustained Low Oil Prices
Frank A. Verrastro

Implications of a Low-Carbon Future
Sarah O. Ladislaw

Efficacy of Sanctions on Energy-Producing Countries
Edward C. Chow

PART 10: HUMAN RIGHTS, HUMAN SECURITY, AND PUBLIC DIPLOMACY

Responding to the Closing of Democratic Space
Shannon N. Green

Soft Power and Security
Daniel Runde

After the Ebola Catastrophe
J. Stephen Morrison

Food Insecurity, Conflict, and Stability
Kimberly Flowers

Normalization and Human Rights in Cuba
Carl Mecham

Winning the War of Ideas
Farah Pandith and Juan Zarate