Feb 13, 2012
Casualty Sensitivity in a Post-Soviet Context
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Russian Views of the Second Chechen War, 2001-2004By Sarah E. Mendelson with Theodore P. GerberMar 1, 2005
Brief Summary of “Casualty Sensitivity in a Post-Soviet Context: Russian Views of the Second Chechen War, 2001-2004,” co-authored with Theodore P. Gerber, March 2005
We address an empirical gap in studies of Russian politics and society by assessing how Russians think about a variety of issues related to the second Chechen war. We analyze data from seven surveys we designed and implemented between October 2001 and July 2004, as well as materials from nine focus groups we implemented in three Russian cities in July 2002. The breadth and richness of our data provide a complex and nuanced picture of Russian public opinion toward the war. That picture contradicts the conventional wisdom that Russians do not care about Chechnya because it does not affect their everyday lives, and it defies broad generalizations that Russians either support the war or support negotiation. In fact, Russians are deeply divided on the war, though a growing number support non-military solutions. We find some evidence that the war and the government’s actions related to it have fomented ethnic intolerance and also undermined confidence in the media, Putin, and the military. But, overall, public opinion on the war offers Russia’s leaders a favorable climate to pursue new non-military strategies for resolving the conflict. In light of the threats that the conflict in Chechnya poses to Russia’s domestic and international security, the international community should focus greater effort on encouraging the Putin administration to pursue such a resolution.
This paper is forthcoming in Political Science Quarterly.
Paper available upon request.Publisher CSIS:REPTopicsRegions