The Evening CSIS July 22 2015

Good Evening,

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Containment or Contentment?
Defense Secretary Ashton Carter today held talks with Saudi Arabia’s king and defense minister, where they agreed that Iran’s “potential for aggression” was a shared concern. And, as the Washington Post’s Missy Ryan reports from Jiddah, the leaders agreed “to curb Iran’s military reach across the Middle East.”

Meanwhile, in a Washington Post op-ed authored by Secretary of State John Kerry and Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz, they present “The case for the nuclear deal with Iran.”

And, as the New York Times’s Michael Gordon reports today, “The Obama administration’s claim that the Iran nuclear accord provides for airtight verification procedures is coming under challenge from nuclear experts.”

Dive Deeper: In a new analysis published today, CSIS’s Anthony Cordesman writes that the “US and its allies need to act now to deal with the Iranian missile threat in ways that are likely to be largely independent of the Iran nuclear agreement.”

And in an article by Fortune’s Nina Easton, CSIS’s Sharon Squassoni parses the pros and cons of the Iran deal.

Russia's Recession
The latest downturn in world oil prices could mean that Russia may need to brace for its longest recession in decades , as Bloomberg’s Olga Tanas reports today from Moscow.

Dive Deeper: In a new analysis published today, CSIS’s Edward Chow and Zachary Cuyler present a fascinating list of yet-to-be completed gas export projects that Russia has announced to date, background information on each, and a simple assessment of their likelihood of success. According to Chow and Cuyler, the total cost of these projects is somewhere between $150 and $200 billion, and most of them will fail to be completed amid Russia’s low oil revenue, budget deficits, and falling GDP.

In that Number
220
The length in feet of North Korea’s new, taller, missile tower.
Source: NBC News.

Critical Question
Asked: What does the nuclear agreement with Iran mean for its missile development?

Answered: Anthony Cordesman, CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy:

The proposed nuclear agreement with Iran calls for an eight-year ban on the sale of new conventionally armed missiles. Like the fact the agreement permits conventional arms sales after five years, this has led to concerns that it might allow Iran to carry out a major military buildup in the future, aided by the fact that Iran could receive a major increase in its ability to fund such imports once sanctions are lifted.

One needs to be very careful about making such assumptions. Unlike its conventional weapons, Iran has already made major progress in producing its own ballistic and cruise missiles. It seems to have deliberately delayed some tests to give its missile efforts a lower political profile during the nuclear negotiations, but it already has a major missile force, is working on larger boosters and solid fuel systems, and seems to be seeking to develop a precision strike capability for its conventionally armed missiles.

It is also clear that Iran has been able to use its extensive network of purchasing offices and cover organizations to buy critical missile technology. There are far too few unclassified data to be certain of Iranian capabilities, and some speculation about intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) programs and its progress in precision guidance is just that—even though it is sometimes described as reliable intelligence. Unfortunately far too much of the other data on Iran’s missiles confuse the accuracy of the guidance platform with the accuracy and reliability of the missile and use nominal warhead payload data without making it clear that the assumed payload is just that—not a meaningful figure on the actual missile warhead.

Read the full analysis.

One to Watch

NPR’s diplomatic correspondent Michele Kelemen ( @michelekelemen), a former NPR Moscow bureau chief, now covers the State Department and Washington’s diplomatic corps. Her reports can be heard on all NPR news programs, including Morning Edition and All Things Considered. She is both one to watch, and, listen to. Tune in.

Optics

Brilliant tweet with photo yesterday by Azam Ahmed ( @azamsahmed): “In the face of historic change, life in Havana continues as before, pulsing energy amid disrepair.”

Highly Recommended
Two former US ambassadors to Kenya, USIP president Johnnie Carson and CSIS senior adviser Mark Bellamy, set the scene for the president’s trip to Kenya and Ethiopia this weekend.

CSIS Today
CSIS hosted an informative discussion on the next generation of vertical lift aircraft and what it can bring in terms of increased capabilities and productivity.

CSIS Tomorrow
The CSIS Energy and National Security Program will host a discussion on US energy policy and strengthening alliances, featuring Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn.

This Town Tomorrow
The Wilson Center will host a discussion on the pitfalls and promises of the Iran nuclear deal, moderated by LA Times columnist Doyle McManus.

CSIS on Demand
Watch the fifth annual CSIS South China Sea Conference and get the latest on the territorial disputes, with candid perspectives from Representative Randy Forbes, chairman of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces.

Sounds
FT Tehran correspondent Najmeh Bozorgmehr and foreign editor Roula Khalaf give a unique perspective on the issues surrounding the Iran deal on this week’s World Weekly podcast.

I Like It Like That
Via Business Insider: 9 Facebook tips and tricks you need to know.

Smiles
Do you ever have a song running through your head that you can’t shake? I mean in a good way—not in an MC Hammer way.

I’ve got a song that I just can’t shake and I wanted to share it. But I couldn’t think of a good reason to write about it. Then, on this beautiful summer morning while swimming laps (I do some of my best thinking in the pool) I had an idea...

Today, July 22, 2015, is a day we would have celebrated my mom’s 71st birthday. My mother, Dr. Shirley S. Schwartz was a selfless educator who helped people. She was also a wonderful mom. And we lost her a few years ago.

On her birthday she always made my sister and I feel like it was OUR birthday. I don’t know why, exactly, but she did. Remembering that made me smile and my mom’s birthday gave me the perfect reason to share a song running through my head. She would have loved that.

Two years ago this summer, the Grateful Dead’s late lead guitarist and singer Jerry Garcia would have celebrated his 70th birthday. In honor of Jerry’s 70th his bandmates and a group of young, uber-talented musicians came together to perform a stunning tribute concert called “Move me Brightly.” That’s where the song running through my head comes from—the Garcia classic “Mission in the Rain.”

This rendition of it from “Move Me Brightly” is powerful— here you will see Jonathan Wilson, a brilliant, young California-based musician interpret it, well, movingly. You might notice that the Grateful Dead’s former backup singer Donna Jean Godchaux joins Wilson on vocals too. It’s a beautiful song that I’d like to dedicate to my mother. Happy Birthday mom, we’re smiling thinking of you.

Feedback
I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at aschwartz@csis.org.