The Evening CSIS July 27 2015

Good Evening,

Welcome to The Evening CSIS—my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. To subscribe, please click here and if you want to view this in your browser, click here.

Yemen Heats Up
The US-backed, Saudi-led coalition launched new airstrikes in at least two Yemeni provinces today quickly ending a short-lived truce with Iranian supported Houthi militants, the AP reports.

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Anthony Cordesman authored a new commentary today that underscores that the US and Arab states face major challenges in dealing with Iran, the crisis in Iraq, the civil war in Syria, the crisis in Yemen, and extremist movements like ISIS, al Qaeda, and the al Nusra Front.

In Africa
South Sudan’s warring factions may face further international pressure if they do not reach a peace deal by Aug. 17, President Obama said today in Addis Ababa, as Reuters’s Jeff Mason reports.

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Jennifer Cooke and Richard Downie late last week published a new report, Rethinking Engagement in Fragile States , which examines the challenges of fragility in four states categorized as fragile: Mali, Myanmar, Somalia, and South Sudan. The report offers common themes and recommendations for external engagement in such fragile states.

And last May, CFR published as part of their “Backgrounder” series “Peace Operations in Africa.”

China's Plunge
The Chinese stock markets plummeted today in its biggest one-day drop since 2007. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 8.5 percent, weighing on Japanese, Hong Kong, and US markets, the Washington Post’s Ana Swanson reports.

Amid the plunge, Chinese authorities plan to start a second cruise ship link to the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea, Reuters reported today from Beijing.

And meanwhile, Philippine president Benigno Aquino urged his nation to unite yesterday as the country confronted China over the South China Sea, the South China Morning Post reports.

Dive Deeper: As indicated, troubled waters in the South China Sea continue to swirl. ICYMI, late last week, CSIS’s Bonnie Glaser participated in a must watch panel discussion with Admiral Harry Harris, commander of US Pacific Command, at the Aspen Ideas Forum called “Chinese Assertiveness in the South China Sea: Harbinger of Things to Come?”

In that Number
100
The percentage approval rating of the 28,452 candidates in North Korea's latest elections. In theory, voters can cast a vote of disapproval by crossing out the name of the candidate in a special polling booth.
Source: CogitAsia, “By the Numbers: North Korea’s Local Elections.”

Critical Question
Asked: How is the Iran nuclear agreement playing with America’s Arab Gulf allies?

Answered: Anthony Cordesman, CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy:

The proposed nuclear agreement with Iran has created deep concerns on the part of America’s Arab allies over the possibility that it could lead the United States to turn away from its present strategic partnerships and somehow shift to Iran. It has also reinforced the tendency to create conspiracy theories about US willingness to support its Arab allies, US withdrawal from the Gulf, and US relations with other regional allies and Arab states.

Many of these fears are a product of the fact that few in the Gulf and Arab world know the full extent of the existing US strategic partnerships, the recent increases in the US role in the region, and the extent to which the US has steadily built up the scale and depth of its military ties to the Arab Gulf states, its cooperation in counterterrorism, and its role in providing the Arab Gulf states with far more modern arms and military technology than is available to Iran.

The US and Arab Gulf states already seem to have achieved a consensus in supporting the nuclear arms agreement with Iran—a view expressed officially by Defense Secretary Ash Carter after his visit to Saudi Arabia on July 22. It is still far from clear, however, how the nuclear arms agreement will play out and impact over time, and there is no clear indication it will affect either the other threats Iran poses or the kind of different threat posed by ISIS, al Qaeda, and similar movements.

This raises a key question for the Obama administration and Congress: Is it time for more formal security arrangements and guarantees between the US and all of its key allies in the Gulf and Middle East? What do its Arab partners want, and how would they like to see the partnership strengthened?

One to Watch

Jennifer Cooke is director of the CSIS Africa Program ( @CSISAfrica). She covers a broad range of US-Africa policy issues, including security engagement, health assistance, conflict diplomacy, and support for good governance. She currently leads the CSIS Nigeria Election Forum, a two-year project that examines the major challenges associated with Nigeria’s 2015 elections.

Optics

Ultra-talented White House photographer Pete Souza has now produced images of President Obama in 50 countries. He has posted a new collection that is certainly worth a look.

Highly Recommended
The geopolitics of the South China Sea are a near constant in the news, but as this New York Times investigation shows, there is a human story that has gotten little attention until now: the plight of “Sea Slaves” that are trafficked and forced into labor on boats to work in the illicit fishing industry. It’s an important read and a story that needs to be told.

CSIS Today
CSIS hosted Steven Pifer, director of the Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative at the Brookings Institution, for a discussion on the current controversy over the INF Treaty. You can watch the recap here.

Ambassador William Courtney joined CSIS for a talk on the implications of Kazakhstan’s accession to the WTO. Watch as he discusses the political and economic interests involved.

And, CSIS hosted three panels of officials for a talk on chemical safety and security, including concerns over the recent and ongoing use of dual-use chemicals as in Syria. See the conference here.

This Town Tomorrow
Can the P5+1 deal really prevent an Iranian nuclear breakout? Tomorrow, the Hudson Institute will host Senator Tom Cotton and a panel of experts to help answer that question. You can join the event tomorrow at 11:45 a.m.

CSIS on Demand
As a primer on President Obama’s visit to Africa, CSIS hosted “Policy Issues in Kenya and Ethiopia ahead of President Obama’s visit.” You can watch it on demand or download a transcript of the event.

Sounds
Get beyond the headlines and learn more about the Chinese economy’s apparent slowdown from our own Scott Kennedy on the latest episode of the Background Briefing.

I Like It Like That
Only the news organization Vice would go deep into drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman’s escape tunnel. Wow.

Smiles
According to Rolling Stone magazine, the Chicago-based alternative rock band Wilco is “one of the most respected bands on the planet.” Recently, Wilco did something that few other musicians of their stature have—they gave away their new album “Star Wars” for free!

“We consider ourselves lucky to be in the position to give you this music free of charge,” Wilco says on its website, “But we do so knowing not every band, label or studio can do the same.”

Just go to Wilco’s website, click a few times, and you can own their 11-song recording for yourself available in a variety of formats. I smiled when, easily, “Star Wars” downloaded in seconds to my iTunes library.

Ok, but why the free record? What’s the catch? Is this good marketing, a gimmick? Other bands have done this (think Radiohead with their now classic “In Rainbows”) but to what end?

Of course, it’s about the economics of the music business. Artists today receive “micropayments” for their songs based on complex formulas. By micropayments, I mean fractions of 1 cent. With the exception of mega pop stars like Tylor Swift, there’s no significant money in record sales—it’s all in concert ticket sales and merchandise.

Does Wilco’s freebie business strategy sound familiar? Free content? If free content is any good, it creates a granular, organic, word-of-mouth buzz. And many smiles—that’s the best kind of buzz.

So, in the spirit of free smiles, and because today is, after all, a Monday, I leave you with a clip of the classic Wilco song, “Monday” (not from the new album). This is one of the songs the band built its foundation on—it’s magnificent. I dedicate it to my buddy Rob Hendin, a heck of a TV producer (with CBS’s Face the Nation) and an even better guy. Smile Rob!

Feedback
I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at aschwartz@csis.org.