The Evening CSIS March 2 2015

Good Evening,

Welcome to The Evening CSIS—my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. To subscribe, please click here.

Netanyahu Speech at AIPAC

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel opened his visit to Washington this week with a speech to AIPAC in which he said he had no personal argument with President Obama but rather “a moral obligation” to call attention to imagining “what Iran would do with nuclear weapons.” The New York Times’s Peter Baker and Julie Hirschfeld Davis have this report.

Dive Deeper: You can follow the AIPAC Policy Conference at http://www.policyconference.org/.

CSIS’s Haim Malka has a new Critical Questions (CSIS’s signature Asked & Answered series of short papers) on the Israeli leader’s visit.

Malka’s 2011 book, Crossroads: The Future of the U.S.-Israel Strategic Partnership is another deep read.

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy held a seminar last week, “U.S.-Israel Relations: A Changing Landscape?,” featuring CFR’s Elliott Abrams, former deputy national security adviser, and the Begin-Sadat Center’s Jonathan Rynhold.

And, the Washington Institute’s Dennis Ross, former special assistant to President Obama, had an op-ed in the Washington Post on Feb 20, “The U.S.-Israel Divide on Iran,” that is worth a look back.

Plus, the Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg attempts to answer all Israel-Iran questions one convenient post.

North Korea Missile Launch

In response to US-South Korea joint military exercises, North Korea fired two short-range missiles off its eastern coast, Reuters reports.

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Victor Cha and Katrin Katz today issued a CSIS Critical Questions (CSIS’s signature Asked & Answered series of short papers) on the NK missile launch.

Dr. Cha has written the seminal book about North Korea and Kim Jong-un’s leadership, The Impossible State.

Worth a look: Marc Bowden’s article in the March 2015 issue of Vanity Fair: “Understanding Kim Jong Un, The World’s Most Enigmatic and Unpredictable Dictator.”

Murder in Russia

Memorials and eulogies for assassinated Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov continue to amass including a New York Times editorial today, “The Brilliant Boris Nemtsov: A Reformer Who Never Backed Down.”

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Andrew Kuchins issued this commentary on Nemtsov today.

In that Number

1,103  Number of lives lost in Iraq in February due to violence.
Source: UN Assistance Mission in Iraq. 

Critical Question

Our signature "Asked & Answered" series

Asked: Should we expect to see an escalation of tensions between North Korea and South Korea during the US-ROK military exercises?

Answered:
Victor Cha, Korea Chair at CSIS: It is hard to say. CSIS Korea Chair research finds a correlation between the state of U.S.-DPRK diplomatic relations prior to the exercises and the degree to which there is escalation tension prompted by the exercises. The correlation goes back to 2006 (with a couple of exceptions). There are two problems under Kim Jong-un’s rule. First, we have a sample size of only two years (2013 and 2014). Second, the data for 2015 does not offer a clear projection. In 2013, generally poor U.S.-DPRK relations in January-March presaged heightened tensions as a result of the exercises (e.g., Kim’s threatening nuclear strikes against U.S. cities). In 2014, a neutral U.S.-DPRK relationship in January-March meant less tension during the exercises. 2015 has seen President Obama’s imposition of sanctions after the Sony hack, but also the upping of inter-Korean humanitarian assistance and efforts at U.S.-DPRK diplomacy, so the impact on exercises is unclear.

Read the full analysis here.

One to Watch

Many interesting people in our orbit, we’ll point out the ones to watch at CSIS and beyond.

Elise Labott (@eliselabottcnn) is CNN’s global affairs correspondent. Here she is pictured boarding Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plane yesterday to travel to Washington.

Optics

A municipal worker washes the crime scene where Boris Nemtsov was murdered only the day before. We’re CSIS not CSI, but the forensics teams must work fast in Moscow.

Highly Recommended

Get Smart article: "7 building blocks to foster Indonesia startup ecosystem," by Andi S. Boediman for TechinAsia.

CSIS Today

Watch video of today’s events at our HQ.

Dr. Liam Fox, member of the British Parliament and former UK secretary of state for defence, discussed the threat of ISIS and Russia relations, cautioning “I don’t believe you can take Putin’s word on anything he says about his actions on his borders.”

Colonel Michael Foster, commander of Italy’s 173rd Airborne Brigade, spoke on US troops in Europe and training missions in Ukraine, stating that “we will be training what is essentially Ukraine’s National Guard for a period of 6 months.”

CSIS hosted a discussion on the opportunities and policy challenges created by the growth of the Internet of Things along with new innovations in the transportation industry.

CSIS Tomorrow

What’s in store at CSIS HQ on Wednesday.

CSIS will host a half-day conference on “Creating Shared Value: The Role of the Private Sector in Agricultural Development” to discuss the role of the private sector in addressing socioeconomic challenges in the world’s poorest countries. Join us at 8:00 a.m.

This Town Tomorrow

So many important things in this town- so little time. Of note:

Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel will address a joint session of Congress to argue against the current nuclear deal the US is negotiating with Iran, arguing that it poses a direct threat to the state of Israel. As of now 43 Democrats will not attend the speech. Here’s the latest whip count. 

Defense Secretary Ashton Carter will face the Senate Armed Services Committee for the first time since his confirmation to defend the administration’s FY16 defense budget. He will testify along with General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at 2:30 p.m. in Hart 216.

CSIS on Demand

Last week CSIS hosted sister of jailed Venezuelan opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez. Adriana Lopez’s comments came at critical time for Venezuela, as falling oil prices compound the problems Nicolas Maduro’s government is now facing.

Sounds

This week’s CogitAsia podcast rounds up the latest news from Asia as well as giving the lowdown on where Taiwan fits into the global order. Reupping from Friday, The CSIS Podcast talks about Netanyahu’s visit and the bigger picture of the future of US-Israel ties. 

I Like It Like That

Eye catching things in CSIS’s orbit

CSIS’s Dan Runde writes about King Juan Carlos’s return to Washington for Forbes. 

Smiles

Our WW II veterans are known as the “greatest generation” for good reason. But 90-years-young veteran Claude Bratcher of east Tennessee takes it to a new level for his great-grandkids, shredding this hill on his sled with his faithful dog Smitty by his side. Take a look at this Go-pro video.

Feedback

I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at aschwartz@csis.org.