The Evening CSIS May 27 2015

Good Evening,

Welcome to The Evening CSIS—my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. To subscribe, please click here and if you want to view this in your browser, click here.

Russian Nukes Destabilizing
Speaking at CSIS today, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg of NATO said that Russia’s nuclear threats are destabilizing and unjustified, as the Wall Street Journal’s Julian Barnes reports.

Dive Deeper: Video of the entire CSIS event with Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg can be viewed On Demand.

Brookings hosted Vice President Joe Biden today for remarks on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Video of the vice president’s remarks can be viewed On Demand.

Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea just over a year ago, the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program has been dedicated to creating a record of the conflict from both sides. Using news stories, videos, and analysis, the team created “The Ukraine Crisis Timeline.” You can view it here and stay current on the latest updates in the region.

Late last week, Bruno Lété of the German Marshall Fund of the US issued “Six Recommendations to Strengthen the Ukraine-NATO Partnership.”

And, last week of Chatham House’s Andrew Monaghan published a new research paper: “A ‘New Cold War’? Abusing History, Misunderstanding Russia.”

Hot Shangri-La
Defense Secretary Ash Carter’s comments at the Shangri-La summit this weekend in Singapore could set the tenor for future relations between Washington and Beijing over tensions in the South China Sea, Starts and Stripes’ Erik Slavin reports today.

Dive Deeper: The 14th annual Asia Security Summit: the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue will take place in Singapore. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter will attend as well as the defense ministers of Germany, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, and the UK.

CSIS’s Ernie Bower authored a commentary earlier this week, “Ash Carter and a US Economic Strategy for Asia,” for CSIS’s CogitAsia blog.

Also, for CogitAsia, Jay L. Batongbacal, director of the University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea, authored a new commentary: “Sabah’s Shadow on the South China Sea.”

In addition, CSIS’s John Schaus published a helpful CogitAsia “Scene Setter: Shangri-La Dialogue 2015.”

And, CSIS’s Mira Rapp Hooper and Zack Cooper published a new analysis for the blog War on the Rocks: “Shangri-La won’t be a fairyland for Beijing.”

CSIS’s Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) has all the latest satellite images of island building and land reclamation in the South China Sea. Explore these images and analysis by visiting the AMTI micro website.

EU Migrant Quotas
EU authorities appealed to member states today to accept quotas of migrants to relieve the burden on southern states like Italy and Greece that are the main landing points for the surging numbers of people crossing the Mediterranean, reports the New York Times’ James Kanter.

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Simond de Galbert and Heather Conley coauthored a Critical Questions (CSIS’s signature series of asked and answered short papers) late last week: “Europe’s New Military Operation against Human Smugglers and the Migration Crisis in the Mediterranean.”

In that Number
40
40 Japanese officers and soldiers will take part in drills involving 30,000 US and Australian troops in early July.
Source : Reuters.

Critical Question
Asked: What’s to be expected at this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue, and what’s at stake?

Answered: Mira Rapp-Hooper, director of the CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative: Later this week, Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, a high-level U.S. congressional delegation, and defense leaders from around the globe will convene in Singapore for the annual Shangri-La Dialogue. This defense forum has often been a place where officials air their concerns about major security issues in the region, and this year is likely to be no different.

Last week, the United States made public video footage from a P-8 surveillance aircraft as it conducted patrols over China’s new artificial islands in the Spratlys. In the video, Chinese military personnel warn the U.S. aircraft away from the zone, and the American pilot responds that he is operating in international airspace—an exchange that lays bare the high stakes that abound in the seas and skies around these tiny islands, including the peaceful resolution of conflicts, international law, and the potential for accidental conflict escalation.

In response, China called the overflight “very irresponsible” and “a potential threat.” Yesterday, China also released its new defense white paper, which added “open seas protection” to its core naval missions. Amidst these heightened tensions, President Ma Ying-jeou of Taiwan, himself a maritime security scholar, announced his South China Sea Peace Initiative, which aims to apply to the disputed area a resource sharing agreement Ma unveiled for the East China Sea in 2012. The initiative proposes shelving sovereignty disputes in favor of joint resource exploration. With many more claimants than are involved in the Senkaku/Diaoyu issue, Ma’s initiative will be no easy feat to implement in the Spratlys, but it is a welcome contribution at a tense time.

Want to watch for other maritime security developments at Shangri-La this weekend and as the summer unfolds? Mira Rapp Hooper and Zack Cooper have identified 10 reasons that this could be a stormy summer at sea.

One to Watch

Very soon, CBS News’ Face the Nation host and moderator of the CSIS-Schieffer Series Bob Schieffer (above, with Amb. Jon Huntsman) ( @bobschieffer) is stepping down from his perch atop Sunday morning public affairs shows. But Bob is and always will be one to watch. For example, during an interview with NPR’s Diane Rehm on Tuesday Bob was asked to name the biggest threat to the future of journalism—without hesitation, Bob said it is the decline of local journalism.

Optics

A US Marine Corps MV-22B Osprey flies over the Black Sea during rehearsals for an integration of US Marines with Special Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force Crisis Response-Africa and Black Sea Rotational Force at the Babadag Training Area in Romania, May 25, 2015. US Marine Corps photo by Staff Sgt. Jessica Smith.

Highly Recommended
Fortune Magazine has released its “World’s 100 Most Powerful Women” list. Last week, CSIS’s Smart Women, Smart Power speaker series hosted Melinda Gates, who Fortune named the third most powerful woman in the world. Our Smart Women, Smart Power series is hosted in partnership with Fortune and is moderated by Fortune’s Nina Easton. We are also grateful to Citi for helping make this important series possible. You can watch our event with Ms. Gates On Demand.

CSIS Today
It was a full house for Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg of NATO, who provided a public address on the challenges facing the Transatlantic Alliance and what NATO must do to adapt.

This Town Tomorrow
Freedom House is hosting an interesting discussion with Chinese activists and journalists on “Culture and Control: The Tightening Grip of Censorship in Xi’s China” at 4:00 p.m.

CSIS on Demand
Yesterday, Wes Bush, chairman, CEO, and president of Northrop Grumman, spoke at CSIS for a Next Generation Dialogue on Industry and Defense. Be sure to watch the video for his insights on the role of research and development for the Department of Defense.

Sounds
NPR talks to the New York Times’ Matt Apuzzo on today’s breaking story of corruption and international crime at the top levels of FIFA, world soccer’s highest governing body. Listen here for a fascinating five minutes.

I Like It Like That
The 9 Slides That Matter From Mary Meeker’s State of the Internet.

Smiles
As I’ve mentioned in this space before, my wife’s family is from Cleveland thru and thru. When NBA superstar LeBron James left the Cavaliers to “take his talents to South Beach” my three young sons who had been raised rooting for LeBron and the Cavs cried their eyes out.

During the time LeBron was ensconced in Miami winning championships for South Beach, a mutual friend took me to dinner with Miami Heat president Pat Riley, the legendary basketball player, coach, and executive. I told Riley that my kids “cried their eyes out” at the loss of their favorite player whom he had poached from Cleveland. He replied dryly, “They’ll get over it.”

Who’s crying now Mr. Riley? And how does this now iconic clip make you feel?

My sons and the city of Cleveland are smiling! Big time.

Feedback
I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at aschwartz@csis.org.