The Evening CSIS May 28 2015

Good Evening,

Welcome to The Evening CSIS—my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. To subscribe, please click here and if you want to view this in your browser, click here.

Turkey Times Two
Fighting between the Turkish military and Kurdish rebels escalated today as NATO convened an emergency meeting about Turkey’s conflicts with ISIS and the Kurds, the Associated Press reports.

And, as Reuters reports, Turkish president Erdogan said today that it is impossible to continue a peace process with Kurdish militants.

From Ankara, the Turkish Daily Sabah reports that Turkish security has detained 35 more suspects across five Turkish provinces in an ongoing operation.

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Bulent Aliriza today authored a new commentary: “Turkey’s Shift on ISIS: Reasons and Implications.”

And, CSIS’s Anthony Cordesman authored a new commentary: “The Uncertain U.S. “Game Changers” in the ISIS, Iraq, and Syria War.”

On China
The Wall Street Journal today reports that “China’s Stock Response Has No Public Face to Calm Turbulent Markets” and, in another must-read piece, reports that “President Xi Jinping—with the help of conservatives in government, academia, military and the technology industry—is moving to exert influence over virtually every part of the digital world in China, from semiconductors to social media.”

Dive Deeper: In a New York Times “Q. and A.: Christopher K. Johnson on the Heavy Thumb of Xi Jinping,” the Times’s Chris Buckley interviews CSIS’s Chris Johnson. Don’t miss reading this one.

In that Number
30
The number of years Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard will have spent in prison when he is expected to be released on November 21, 2015.
Source: Wall Street Journal .

Critical Question
Asked: What is Turkey’s rationale behind its recent strikes against the PKK as well as ISIS?

Answered: Bulent Aliriza, CSIS Turkey Project director:

The fact that the Turkish change on ISIS was accompanied by a renewal of sustained airstrikes against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in northern Iraq for the first time in three years makes it apparent that Turkey’s priority is the fight against the PKK rather than ISIS, even though Turkish leaders have now identified them as equal threats. The Turkish bombing in Iraq further complicates the already difficult situation in that country and raises serious doubts about the future of the implicit alliance between the US-led coalition and Kurdish militias—particularly the PYD in Syria, which is tied to the PKK and as such perceived as a threat by Turkey immediately beyond its southern border—in the struggle against ISIS. At the same time, the bombing of PKK targets effectively ends the peace process designed to end long-standing Turkish-Kurdish tensions within Turkey and threatens to usher in the kind of violence in the Kurdish southeast not seen since the 1990s.

Although President Barack Obama essentially chose to ignore it as he negotiated with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the shift in Turkish policy in coordination with the United States came against a backdrop of domestic political turmoil. Turkey has been in postelection limbo since the June 7 elections which denied the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) a parliamentary majority. In the absence of an agreement on a coalition government, decisions are being made by Erdogan and, to a lesser extent, the caretaker government led by Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Erdogan's opponents, especially the predominantly Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which has been constantly vilified by Erdogan and the AKP for months for its alleged association with the PKK, have been raising questions about whether the shift last week was designed to create the right kind of political environment to allow the AKP to regain sole power in early elections in November.

One to Watch

Natasha Mozgovaya ( @mozgovaya) is Voice of America’s Washington anchor of the Russian-language television show Current Time. She is former Washington bureau chief of the Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz and a former Israeli television host. Natasha is a wiz on Twitter, who presents a wealth of information and journalistic expertise on issues of foreign policy and national security, making her one to watch on Twitter—unless you speak Russian, then watch her on VOA too.

Optics
A Turkish air force plane takes off today from Incirlik Air Base, near Adana southeastern Turkey.

Highly Recommended
Robin Wright’s piece for the New Yorker, “Tehran’s Promise: The revolution’s midlife crisis and the nuclear deal.” Among other fascinating moments in this article, Wright describes visiting Zahra Eshraghi, the granddaughter of Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran. According to Wright, Eshraghi is a women’s rights activist and was “dressed in a leather skirt and spike heels” when they met.

CSIS Tomorrow

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard joins CSIS tomorrow to speak on emerging threats and challenges to US foreign policy. Join us at 9:00 a.m., or watch the event live here.

And at 10:00 a.m., CSIS will host David O’Sullivan, ambassador of the European Union to the US, and Pham Quang Vinh, ambassador of Vietnam to the US, along with State Department officials for a discussion on strengthening Southeast Asian cooperation. Tune in here.

This Town Tomorrow
Tomorrow, AEI will host Rep. Randy Forbes and Sen. Jim Talent to discuss the challenges posed by China’s military modernization and to outline the next steps in ensuring long-term security for the US and its allies. You can watch the event live at noon.

CSIS on Demand
Delphine Schrank spent four years in Burma reporting among dissidents as they struggled to free their country. Her recent book, The Rebel of Rangoon (Nation Books, 2015), follows the rebels and their inner lives, from prison cells to Internet cafes. You can watch Schrank discuss her book at the launch, hosted by CSIS.

Sounds
After the news that the Philippines is bumping their defense budget up 25 percent, listen to this week’s CogitAsia podcast on the changes that are shaping this country and the region.

I Like It Like That
Fearless Genius: The Digital Revolution in Silicon Valley 1985-2000 (Atria Books, 2014) compiles the photos of Doug Menuez, who had unparalleled access to Steve Jobs and the key innovators of Silicon Valley. In total, Menuez shot over 250,000 stunning photos (the book version doesn’t have them all). But the “Fearless Genius” project is beyond a book—it’s a multiplatform extravaganza. I like it that we will be studying Menuez’s trove of content for many years to come.

Smiles
There hasn’t been too much to smile about this summer if you are a Baltimore Orioles fan, as I am. Our Birds are 7 games behind the hated New York Yankees, who currently occupy first place in the American League East division. There’s always hope though, and there’s always the Wild Card (we are currently 3 games out of the second spot for the Wild Card).

Last night was a BIG win against the Atlanta Braves (apologies in advance to my boss, CSIS chairman and former Georgia senator Sam Nunn). A game winning, walk-off, 11th inning homer by Os catcher Matt Wieters provided joy and smiles all over Charm City— watch this!

Feedback
I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at aschwartz@csis.org.