The Evening CSIS September 1 2015

Good Evening,

Welcome to The Evening CSIS—my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. To subscribe, please click here and if you want to view this in your browser, click here.

Tumbling Down (Again)
US stocks declined significantly again today (about 3 percent) as fears about a slowdown in China’s economy deepened, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Matthew Goodman and Scott Kennedy authored an important Critical Questions last week (CSIS’s signature asked & answered series of short papers) Making Sense of the Market Turmoil in which they explained that with underlying forces still putting pressure on global equity prices, the volatility could well continue for some time, and this could have implications for economic growth and policy in China, the United States, and beyond.

And, Brookings’ David Wessel today published "Four questions, and answers, about China’s economy."

Breaking the Ice
President Barack Obama on Tuesday proposed a faster timetable for buying a new icebreaker for the US Arctic , where quickly melting sea ice has spurred more maritime traffic and the United States has fallen far behind Russian resources, as the Financial Times’s Barney Jopson and Demetri Sevastopulo report.

CNN’s Brian Todd also filed an excellent piece late yesterday that underscores the US-Russia dynamic in the Arctic.

Dive Deeper: In a new commentary published today, CSIS’s Heather Conley writes, To Build or Not to Build an Icebreaker? That is the $1 Billion Funding Question.

Plus, CSIS’s Conley and Rohloff published a major new report late last week: "The New Ice Curtain: Russia's Strategic Reach to the Arctic."

Xi Loves a Parade
As China’s economy falters, Beijing is preparing for a major display of military might , complete with 12,000 marching soldiers, fighter jets and other high-tech weapons, the New York Times’ Andrew Jacobs reports.

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Anthony Cordesman today published a new study: "Chinese Strategy and Military Modernization: A Comparative Analysis."

In that Number
40
The number of icebreakers that Russia currently operates, compared to the US Coast Guard’s two icebreakers.
Source: CSIS Report: The New Ice Curtain (Page 48)

Critical Question
Asked: With President Obama’s icebreaker announcement, what is needed to move this issue forward?

Answered: Heather Conley, CSIS SVP for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic:

It is estimated that for the United States to construct a single icebreaker it would take ten years and cost approximately $1 billion, keeping in mind that the Coast Guard’s entire budget for FY2016 is $9.96 billion. The American shipyards that build the Polar Star and Healy have closed. U.S. expertise in icebreaking technology has atrophied. It would be more cost-efficient to look for commercial applications or joint procurement opportunities with Finland or Canada but it is unclear whether current U.S. legal provisions will allow a more flexible approach.

Admiral Zukunft, the Commandant of the Coast Guard, has been relentless in his call for additional U.S. icebreaking capabilities. When comparing the current state of U.S. ambition in the Arctic to Russia, Admiral Zukunft stated, “our GDP is at least eight times that of Russia. And yet we say we can’t afford an icebreaker. We just need to make it a priority.” Yet federal agencies – and particularly the Office of Management and Budget -- have all been exceedingly silent on issues related to funding icebreakers. There has been no formal request to Congress. In fact, members of Congress have repeatedly asked the administration to put forward proposals. President Obama’s announcement appears to make icebreakers a federal priority.

Read the full analysis here.

One to Watch

Todd Harrison ( @ToddHarrisonDC) joins CSIS today as Director of Defense Budget Analysis and senior fellow in our International Security Program. Todd has been named by Defense News as one of the 100 Most Influential People in U.S. Defense. We’re happy to welcome Todd Harrison to CSIS.

Optics
Yesterday we showed you a video of a muscular Putin pumping Iron, today we have a video of Russia flexing their military muscle—their new stealth fighter.

Highly Recommended
The Department of Defense has all kinds of resources that you might not know about. Take PRISM, published by DoD’s Center for Complex Operations. It’s a security studies journal with superb contributors like Ambassador Rick Barton who was the first-ever US Assistant Secretary of State for Conflict and Stabilization Operations. Amb. Barton’s new article for PRISM, Volume 5, Number 3, “Golden Opportunities for Civilian Power” is highly recommended.

CSIS Today

Today CSIS hosted a panel of experts to explore the impact of Russian arms and technology transfers on China’s warfare capabilities in the Western Pacific. You can watch the eventon demand here. Above: CSIS's Tom Karako and Paul Schwartz.

This Town Tomorrow
The Brookings Institution will host a discussion on “Budgetary turmoil at the Department of Defense, 2010-2014” tomorrow at 10:00AM. Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA) will join other policymakers for the discussion, and Brookings senior fellow Michael O’Hanlon will moderate. To watch live or register, click here.

CSIS on Demand
Last July CSIS hosted Icelandic Foreign Minister Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson for a discussion on the changing political and strategic dynamics in the Arctic. In light of President Obama’s visit this week, you can check out his insights on the evolving issues and the future of the Arctic.

Sounds
With last week’s market swings still being felt, CSIS’s Matt Goodman looks at what’s next and China’s role in the global economy on the CSIS Podcast.

I Like It Like That
Eye-catching things in CSIS's orbit

Tesla’s new top of the line model isn’t cheap, but it’s very likable.

Smiles
Yesterday, I showed one of the kinds of smiles that has helped ease the inconceivable pain Hurricane Katrina inflicted on the resilient people of New Orleans. The smile came in the form of the joyful noise made by New Orleans’ Rebirth Brass Band.

They weren’t the only New Orleans musicians who helped the city smile and persevere. Take Trombone Shorty, one of the modern masters of New Orleans Jazz. Now 29, Troy Andrews started playing ‘Bone at the age of 4—thus the nickname “Trombone Shorty.” He’s not so short anymore, and his music is huge.

In New Orleans, any night (or day) of the week is full of musical smiles. Here’s Shorty on a Monday night, performing live at New Orleans’ legendary Tipitina’s. Keep in mind this is a MONDAY night. Can you imagine the smiles on Saturday night?

Feedback
I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at aschwartz@csis.org.