Iran and the Gulf Military Balance I: The Conventional and Asymmetric Dimensions

The Burke Chair at CSIS has greatly updated and expanded its analysis of Iranian military forces to reflect recent events, as well as comments on the previous draft. The first part of this analysis is entitled “Iran and the Gulf Military Balance I: The Conventional and Asymmetric Dimensions.” It is available on the CSIS web site at: http://csis.org/files/publication/120221_Iran_Gulf_MilBal_ConvAsym.pdf.

The contents of the analysis are as follows:

Historical Background

Current Patterns in the Structure of US and Iranian Military Competition

Differing National Perspectives

US Perceptions

Iranian Perceptions

Arab and Turkish Perceptions

Israeli perceptions

Perceptions of the “War of Sanctions”

Key Uncertainties in Assessing the Details of US and Iranian Military Competition

Uncertainties Affecting Nuclear and Missile Programs

Uncertainties Affecting Regime Stability and Regime Change

Uncertainties Affecting the View of Different National Officials, Military Officers, and Intelligence Experts

Competition in Conventional Military Forces

The Trends in the Conventional Balance

The Limits to Iran’s Air Power

The Uncertainties Affecting Iran’s Air Capabilities

Iran’s Problems in a Significant Air War

Iranian Claims to  Air Modernization and Combat Capability

The US, the Southern Gulf Problem, and Iran’s Capability for Air Combat

Ground-Based Air Defenses

The Limits to Iran’s Surface-Based Air Defenses

The Struggle to Modernize Iran’s Surface to Air Missile Defenses

The US, the Southern Gulf Problem and Iran’s Capability for Land-based Air Defense

The Southern Gulf Problem and Surface-toAir Missile Defense

Iran’s Largely Defensive Land Forces

Strengths and Weaknesses in Iran’s Army

Iran’s Ability to Defend Its Teritory and Project Land Power

Iran’s Naval Forces and Their Role in Asymmetric Warfare

The Strengths and Weaknesses of Iran’s Naval Forces

Iran Officers and Officials on Iran’s Naval Posture in the Gulf

The US, the Southern Gulf, and Iran’s Capability for Naval Combat

Measuring the Overall Balance of US and Iranian Military Competition

The Wild Card in the Conventional Balance: A Weak Iraq

Competition in Asymmetric Forces

Iran’s Growing Asymmetric Forces

Conventional Weakness vs Asymmetric Capability

Iran’s Growing Mix of Asymmetric Warfare Forces

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)

IRGC Land Forces

The IRGC Air Force

The IRGC Naval Forces

The Al Qods Force

“Closing the Gulf:” Iran’s Real World Military Options for Asymmetric Warfare

The Potential  Strategic, Energy, and Global Economic Impacts of the Iranian Threat

Iran’s Growing Military Assets for Such a Mission

Iran’s Submarines and Submersibles

Submarines

Midget Submarines

Swimmer Delivery Vehicles (SDVs)

Iran’s Bases and Other Assets for “Closing the Gulf”

Iranian Military Installations in the Gulf

Major Surface Warships

Fast-attack Watercraft, Speedboats, Patrol Craft, and Hovercraft

Shore and Ship-based ASCMs

Naval Mines

Maritime Patrol Aircraft

Helicopters

Torpedoes

UCAVs and UAVs

Other Asymmetric Forces

US and Arab Gulf Options for Competing with Iranian

US Forces in the Gulf

The US Partnership With Southern Gulf, Other Regional, British, and French forces

Implications for US Policy

The second volume of this analysis is entitled Iran and the Gulf Military Balance II: The Missile and Nuclear Dimensions.  It is available on the CSIS web site at:
http://csis.org/files/publication/120222_Iran_Gulf_Mil_Bal_II_WMD.pdf 

Both reports are working drafts of chapters in a comprehensive survey of US and Iranian competition made possible through the funding of the Smith Richardson Foundation, and which are to be published as an electronic book in early March.  Comments and suggestions would be most helpful. They should be sent to Anthony H. Cordesman at acordesman@gmail.com.

Other draft chapters and reports in this series include:

1. Introduction
2. Types and Levels of Competition - This chapter looks at the various arenas in which Iran and the U.S. compete for influence.
3. Iran and the Gulf Military Balance - This chapter looks at Iran’s Military forces in detail, and the balance of forces in the Gulf Region.
4. Iran and the Gulf Military Balance II – This chapter looks at Iran’s Missile and Nuclear forces.
5. U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Sanctions game: Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change - This chapter examines the impact of sanctions on the Iranian regime, Iran’s energy sector, and the prospects for regime change in Tehran.
6. US and Iranian Strategic Competition in the Gulf States and Yemen - This chapter examines the competition between the US, and Iran and how it affects Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, Oman and Qatar.
7. The Outcome of Invasion: US and Iranian Strategic Competition in Iraq - This chapter examines in detail the role Iran has played in Iraq since 2003, and how the US has tried to counter it.
8. U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Proxy Cold War in the Levant, Egypt and Jordan - This chapter examines US and Iranian interests in the Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Egypt and Syria.  The military balance is also analyzed.
9. The United States and Iran: Competition involving Turkey and the South Caucasus - This chapter analyzes the US and Iranian competition over influence in Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
10. Competition in Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Pakistan - This chapter examines the important role Iran plays in the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan, and how the US and Iranian rivalry affects Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia.
11. U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of China and Russia - This chapter examines the complex and evolving relationships between China, Russia, Iran and the US.
12. U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Competition Involving the EU, EU3, and non-EU European States - This chapter looks at the role the EU, and in particular the EU3, have played as the U.S.’s closest allies in its competition with Iran.
13. U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Peripheral Competition Involving Latin America and Africa - This chapter examines the extent and importance of the competition between the US and Iran in the rest of the world.