Iran and the Gulf Military Balance II: The Missile and Nuclear Dimensions

The military competition between Iran and the US, the Southern Gulf states, and Israel has already triggered a de facto nuclear arms race in the region, and has produced a growing confrontation over Iran’s missile programs and nuclear efforts. There is a growing risk that it may lead Iran to accelerate its current programs, force the US and regional states to create new deterrent and defensive options, or trigger a preventive attack by the US or Israel.

The Burke Chair at CSIS has just updated its comprehensive analysis of what is known and unknown about the Iranian program, its potential impact on a nuclear arms race in the region, and US and Israeli preventive strike options.

This analysis is entitled Iran and the Gulf Military Balance II: The Missile and Nuclear Dimensions.  It is available on the CSIS web site at: http://csis.org/files/publication/120222_Iran_Gulf_Mil_Bal_II_WMD.pdf
 
This up-to-date analysis is designed to highlight key aspects of the threat Iran can pose to the region, and the priorities for US, Southern Gulf, and action by other countries to limit the risk of war and win any conflict if one should occur.

The contents of the analysis are as follows:  

Competition Over Nuclear Threats, Missiles, and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction

Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program and its Role in US and Iranian Military Competition      

Iran’s Missile Programs

What Iran’s Actions and Statements Say About Its View of Competition: Ballistic Missiles

Missiles as a Form of Deterrence

Missiles as a Form of Warfighting

The Warfighting Capabilities of Iran’s Current Missile Force

The Escalating Impact of Iranian Missile Capabilities

The Impact of Missile Defenses

The Impact of Retaliatory Threats and Retaliation

Nuclear Competition: Estimating and Reacting to the Iranian Nuclear Threat

Iran’s Statements about Its Nuclear Program

Analyzing the Details of What Is Known and What Is Uncertain

The Data in the IAEA Report of November 8, 2011

US Official Views of Iran’s Competition in Nuclear and Missile Efforts

Timing Iran’s Bomb

Focusing On Proliferation Rather than the Force

The Chemical and Biological Dimension

The Impact of Iranian Nuclear Weapons on US and Iranian Competition

Iran’s Use of Nuclear Weapons Once It Possesses Them

The Threshold State and “Wars of Intimidation”

The Transition Stage: Launch on Warning? Launch Under Attack?

Iranian Efforts to Use a Survivable or “Mature” Nuclear Force

US Responses to Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Efforts

Missile Defense

“Extended Deterrence”

US Preventive Strike Options

The Diplomacy and Politics of Preventive Strikes

US Strike Options Against Iran

Killing Hardened and Deeply Buried targets

The Aftermath of A US Preventive Attack

Possible US War Plans: Attacking, Delaying, Waiting Out

The Impact of Israeli-Iranian Nuclear Arms Race on US and Iranian Competition

Israel’s Fear of An “Existential Threat”

The Unknowns in Assessing Israel’s Calculations of Its Ability to Use Missile Defense, “Extended Deterrence,” and Destroy Iran’s Population Using Nuclear Weapons

The Unknowns in Assessing Israel’s Preventive Attack Options

The Ongoing Policy Debate Within Israel Regarding a Preemptive Strike on Iran

Potential Israeli Options for Striking Iran’s Nuclear Program

An Illustrative Air Strike

The Limits to Israeli Capabilities

Dealiing with The Iranian Response

Implications for US Policy   

This analysis is part of a series made possible by funding by the Smith Richardson Foundation, and is Part II of a comprehensive analysis of Iran’s military capabilities and its impact on the risk of conflict in the Gulf and the Middle East. The first Part is entitled “Iran and the Gulf Military Balance I: The Conventional and Asymmetric Dimensions.”  It is available on the CSIS web site at:
http://csis.org/files/publication/120221_Iran_Gulf_MilBal_ConvAsym.pdf

Both reports are working drafts of chapters in a comprehensive survey of US and Iranian competition made possible through the funding of the Smith Richardson Foundation, and which are to be published as an electronic book in early March.  Comments and suggestions would be most helpful. They should be sent to Anthony H. Cordesman at acordesman@gmail.com.

Other draft chapters and reports in this series include:

1. Introduction
2. Types and Levels of Competition - This chapter looks at the various arenas in which Iran and the U.S. compete for influence.
3. Iran and the Gulf Military Balance - This chapter looks at Iran’s Military forces in detail, and the balance of forces in the Gulf Region.
4. Iran and the Gulf Military Balance II – This chapter looks at Iran’s Missile and Nuclear forces.
5. U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Sanctions game: Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change - This chapter examines the impact of sanctions on the Iranian regime, Iran’s energy sector, and the prospects for regime change in Tehran.
6. US and Iranian Strategic Competition in the Gulf States and Yemen - This chapter examines the competition between the US, and Iran and how it affects Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, Oman and Qatar.
7. The Outcome of Invasion: US and Iranian Strategic Competition in Iraq - This chapter examines in detail the role Iran has played in Iraq since 2003, and how the US has tried to counter it.
8. U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Proxy Cold War in the Levant, Egypt and Jordan - This chapter examines US and Iranian interests in the Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Egypt and Syria.  The military balance is also analyzed.
9. The United States and Iran: Competition involving Turkey and the South Caucasus - This chapter analyzes the US and Iranian competition over influence in Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
10. Competition in Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Pakistan - This chapter examines the important role Iran plays in the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan, and how the US and Iranian rivalry affects Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia.
11. U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of China and Russia - This chapter examines the complex and evolving relationships between China, Russia, Iran and the US.
12. U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Competition Involving the EU, EU3, and non-EU European States - This chapter looks at the role the EU, and in particular the EU3, have played as the U.S.’s closest allies in its competition with Iran.
13. U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Peripheral Competition Involving Latin America and Africa - This chapter examines the extent and importance of the competition between the US and Iran in the rest of the world.