Iraq and the Challenge of Continuing Violence

The withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraq at the end of 2011 did not leave that country with a functioning democracy or effective governance; nor has it put an end to high levels of local violence, or ethnic and sectarian tension. In the wake of the developing leadership crisis between Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki and Vice President Hashimi which began on December 17, 2011, the decreased U.S. presence in Iraq seems to guarantee future sectarian violence and instability. 

In spite of the massive investment of U.S. and Coalition aid, Iraq continues to struggle with crippling levels of poverty and unemployment; its per capita income is 159th in the world; and Iraq’s population and armed forces continually come under attack from insurgents.

The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that Iraq’s wealth is likely to increase by less than half the production rate called for in Iraqi plans, as the country must deal with critical problems in health, education, local governance, and reforming its agriculture and state industries. The United States is seeking a new role in Iraq that can help that country deal with these issues and counter Iranian influence, but persistent ethnic and sectarian violence, power struggles among Iraqi leadership, the lack of strong governance at all levels, and continuing attacks by insurgents on Iraq’s population and security forces demonstrate Iraq’s significant security challenges in the face of continuing violence.
The Burke Chair has developed a report on “Iraq and the Challenge of Continuing Violence” that is available on the CSIS web site at: http://csis.org/files/publication/120206_Iraqi_Violence.pdf

This report provides an analytic and graphical representation of where Iraq now stands, and addresses the key types and levels of threat the country faces in the near and medium term. By going beyond simple death counts to breaking down casualty numbers into specific categories, this report updates the current trends in reporting Iraqi violence; it serves as a corrective to the traditional thinking on Iraqi stability and security, and offers a unique perspective to Iraqi violence and the challenge it presents.
Taken individually, each figure illustrates one particular obstacle as Iraq looks ahead. Taken as a whole, however, these trends aggregate to demonstrate the troubling depth and complexity of Iraq’s security crisis, particularly the challenge of continuing violence. This report draws on a variety of relevant sources, including data from the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), the Special Inspector General for Iraqi Reconstruction (SIGIR), Iraqi Body Count, the CIA World Factbook, and elsewhere.
Based on this analysis, this report proposes three possible paths ahead for Iraq at this time. One in which continued division and disunity continue to give rise to ethnic and sectarian violence across the country. A second possible future for Iraq is one in which the leadership continues to struggle and wrangle for power and position at the expense of the population. The third and most promising way forward depicts an Iraq in which a stable compromise has been reached, allowing the political factions to focus on the business of moving Iraq ahead. Under this scenario, Iraq’s various ethnic groups coordinate on security objectives, and cooperate towards applying Iraq’s vast resources towards economic development, strong governance, and effective security.

For all Burke Chair analysis on Iraq, please go to: http://csis.org/program/burke-chair-iraq-war

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Anthony H. Cordesman

Anthony H. Cordesman

Former Emeritus Chair in Strategy

Sam Khazai