Islam, Islamism and Politics in Eurasia Report (IIPER) - No. 67, 14 October 2013

The conclusion of Afghanistan’s ‘Kabul process’ or ‘Afghanization’ will be pivotal both for the national security and economic interests of the People’s Republic of China. With the withdrawal of Western forces from Afghanistan and the West’s likely declining political and economic involvement in the region will almost certainly mean declining stability in Afghanistan and perhaps even the Talban’s return to power if all else remains as it is. Either outcome, but especially the latter, will result in greater Islamist and/or jihadist activity and political instability in Central Asia. In turn, greater instability in Central Asia could drastically impinge on key Chinese national security and economic interests in its troubled, western Muslim-dominated province, the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Republic (XUAR). Therefore, China is likely to play a more active role in Afghanistan and Central (and South) Asia in support of its security and economic interests. This report addresses the implications of the Western withdrawal for Chinese security and economic interests as they relate to Central Asia.

Islam, Islamism and Politics in Eurasia Report (IIPER) is a bimonthly analysis issued by the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program. IIPER focuses on all politically relevant issues involving or bearing on Islam, Islamism, and jihadism in Russia and Eurasia writ large. The report is compiled, edited, and unless indicated otherwise, written by Gordon M. Hahn, a nonresident senior associate at CSIS.