The Military Balance in the Middle East: The Impact of the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction on the Regional Balance

Proliferation is one of the least understood aspects of the Middle East military balance, but it is also one of the most important. Conventional wars are certainly capable of destroying whole nations, particularly small ones like Israel, Jordan, and the emerging Palestinian entity. In the real world, however, the probable outcome of conventional warfare in any of the previous contingencies is likely to be limited -- at least in the sense that such wars are unlikely to escalate to levels of conflict which threaten the existence of one or more states, or produce massive civilian casualties.

The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, however, poses a growing risk of wars that could threaten the major population centers of Israel and its Arab neighbors. Proliferation could destroy the very existence of Israel and change beyond all recognition the leadership and character of Iran and any Arab state that became involved in a large-scale exchange using biological or nuclear weapons.

The destruction of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq has removed one of the most dangerous proliferators in the region, but many proliferators remain. These include the nations shown in Figure 10.1. At the same time, this same table shows that the Middle East is only one region where nations are acquiring weapons of mass destruction, and that many other countries have the technology base to become proliferators. This raises the specter of the transfer of such weapons from outside the region or wars involving the forces of outside powers such as Pakistan.