Pacific Partners Outlook: The Pacific’s Call to Action on Climate Change and Disaster Mitigation

Volume 5 | Issue 3 | April 9, 2015

The last half of March provided troubling examples of the toll increasingly frequent extreme weather events will take on countries in the twenty-first century, and particularly on small-island developing states. But it also underscored the increasing international attention being paid to the threat of climate change, the need for better disaster management and prevention, and the growing commitment to make 2015 a landmark year on both fronts. President Barack Obama has committed the United States to leading the effort to find a binding international commitment on climate change, and March showed why Washington must follow through.

Cyclone Pam, one of the strongest storms ever seen in the South Pacific, slammed into Vanuatu on March 13, wiping out virtually the entire national agricultural crop and years of economic development overnight. The nation is expected to be dependent on emergency relief from the international community for months to come, and could take years to recover. The storm also pummeled nearby Kiribati, the Solomon Islands, and Tuvalu. Then, beginning March 27, Typhoon Maysak, another category five storm, lashed the vast archipelago of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), causing massive damage before moving on to the Philippines.

Cyclone Pam garnered worldwide headlines and attracted a rapid international response, including from the United States. The effects of Typhoon Maysak should hit closer to home for the United States. FSM and the United States are joined by a Compact of Free Association under which Washington provides development assistance, special access for Micronesian citizens to the United States, and protection against external threats. FSM president Manny Mori has already said that he hopes for considerable assistance from the United States under the compact—something that Washington is hurrying to provide.

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The Month That Was

  • Australia to join Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
  • New Zealand, South Korea sign free trade deal
  • Federated States of Micronesia hit hard by Typhoon Maysak

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Looking Ahead

  • Financing Growth in the Asia Pacific
  • The Real Geopolitics: The Future Belongs to the Tropics
  • A Centenary of Australian War Art

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The Pacific’s Call to Action on Climate Change and Disaster Mitigation

By Gregory Poling (@GregPoling), Fellow, Pacific Partners Initiative (@PacPartnersDC), CSIS

April 9, 2015

The last half of March provided troubling examples of the toll increasingly frequent extreme weather events will take on countries in the twenty-first century, and particularly on small-island developing states. But it also underscored the increasing international attention being paid to the threat of climate change, the need for better disaster management and prevention, and the growing commitment to make 2015 a landmark year on both fronts. President Barack Obama has committed the United States to leading the effort to find a binding international commitment on climate change, and March showed why Washington must follow through.

Cyclone Pam, one of the strongest storms ever seen in the South Pacific, slammed into Vanuatu on March 13, wiping out virtually the entire national agricultural crop and years of economic development overnight. The nation is expected to be dependent on emergency relief from the international community for months to come, and could take years to recover. The storm also pummeled nearby Kiribati, the Solomon Islands, and Tuvalu. Then, beginning March 27, Typhoon Maysak, another category five storm, lashed the vast archipelago of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), causing massive damage before moving on to the Philippines.

Cyclone Pam garnered worldwide headlines and attracted a rapid international response, including from the United States. The effects of Typhoon Maysak should hit closer to home for the United States. FSM and the United States are joined by a Compact of Free Association under which Washington provides development assistance, special access for Micronesian citizens to the United States, and protection against external threats. FSM president Manny Mori has already said that he hopes for considerable assistance from the United States under the compact—something that Washington is hurrying to provide.

Both storms should also be a painful reminder to the United States that, as a Pacific nation, it is directly threatened by climate change and the increasingly violent weather it causes. Typhoon Maysak could easily have made a direct hit on Guam or the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands—U.S. territories not far from FSM and home to more than 200,000 U.S. citizens and nationals combined. A storm of Cyclone Pam’s strength could someday strike American Samoa or Hawaii, and probably will. Mitigating risks from such extreme weather events are not just a matter of responsibility to small-island developing states; they are a direct national interest.

That is why it is so important that the United States was one of 187 UN member states to adopt the new Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in Japan on March 18. The agreement—the first major one in the post–2015 UN development agenda—set seven global targets to be reached by 2030: substantially reducing (1) global disaster mortality, (2) the number of people affected, (3) economic losses, and (4) damage to infrastructure and basic services, while at the same time boosting (5) the number of countries with risk reduction strategies, (6) international cooperation, and (7) access to early warning systems and disaster risk information.

The new framework is an important step toward mitigating the inevitable damage that increasingly frequent and violent extreme weather will cause this century. It is also indicative that the international community is rousing to confront the danger. And most importantly, it lends momentum to achieve the greater prize later this year—a binding international agreement to combat climate change.

The Obama administration has committed to reaching such an agreement when world leaders meet under the auspices of the United Nations in Paris in December. The efforts the United States and others made last year to reduce emissions, and the emerging consensus among both developed and developing nations that an agreement is necessary, has expectations for Paris running high. In the months to come, U.S. officials must work to strengthen that consensus, do all they can to bring remaining deniers on board, and work with like-minded nations, both developed and developing, to cobble together the parameters within which a successful treaty can be negotiated.

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The Month That Was

Australia

Australia to join Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Prime Minister Tony Abbott released a statement on March 29 saying Australia would sign an agreement allowing it to “participate as a prospective founding member” in the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The carefully worded statement followed a recent decision by fellow U.S. allies like Germany, South Korea, and the United Kingdom to join despite U.S. objections. The Australian statement said Canberra still would not join until it was assured that investment decisions would be in the hands of the bank’s board of directors.

Australia, Vietnam boost comprehensive partnership. Vietnamese prime minister Nguyen Tan Dung visited Australia on March 17–18 and signed an agreement with Prime Minister Tony Abbott to enhance the Australia-Vietnam comprehensive partnership and establish a strategic partnership in the future. They agreed to boost high-level exchanges and security cooperation, strengthen the role of regional architecture, and boost bilateral trade and investment. During the visit, the two countries’ defense ministers also signed an agreement to have a small number of Vietnamese troops train in Australia and take part in joint exercises.

Governing coalition wins key state election. The Liberal-National coalition of Prime Minister Tony Abbott won a March 28 election in Australia’s most populous state, New South Wales. Incumbent premier Mike Baird was returned to power with a comfortable majority in the state legislature, though the opposition Labor Party gained about a dozen seats. The win provides a much-needed boost to Abbott, who faced a leadership challenge from within his party in February and watched his Liberal-National coalition lose recent state elections in Queensland and Victoria.

Indonesian court rejects appeal by condemned Bali Nine ringleaders. Jakarta’s high administrative court on April 6 rejected an appeal by Australians Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran challenging President Joko Widodo’s refusal to grant them clemency. The two were convicted of leading the “Bali Nine” group of Australian heroin smugglers arrested in 2005. Chan and Sukumaran are among 10 prisoners, all but one of whom are foreigners, who Indonesian authorities plan to execute at the same time, despite pleas for mercy from foreign governments.

Reserve Bank surprises by holding rates steady. The Reserve Bank of Australia on April 7 held its benchmark interest rate at 2.25 percent for the second month in a row despite predictions from most economists that the bank would trim rates to 2 percent amid slow growth, high unemployment, and falling iron ore prices. Australian exporters had hoped for a rate cut to further depreciate the Australian dollar, which instead rose by more than one U.S. cent to $0.77. Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens said further monetary easing “may be appropriate” and suggested the bank could cut rates in May.

Bishop denies reports that foreign aid budget will be cut. Foreign Minister Julie Bishop on March 23 denied news reports that Australia’s foreign aid budget would be trimmed in May, which would add to the approximately $8.5 billion of cuts since Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s government took power in September 2013. Bishop said Treasurer Joe Hockey and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann had both assured her that foreign aid would not be trimmed to create budget savings. Cormann told reporters the government has already cut the aid budget “as much as [they] can.”

Authorities stop 200 suspected militants from joining Islamic State. Prime Minister Tony Abbott said March 25 that Australian authorities have stopped more than 85,000 people at international airports around the country since strengthening security in August 2014 and have prevented about 200 suspected supporters of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from traveling to join the fight. Australia is one of the largest Western sources of ISIS recruits. The government says 90 Australians are believed to be fighting in Iraq and Syria and at least 20 have been killed.

New Zealand

New Zealand, South Korea sign free trade deal. Trade Minister Tim Groser and his South Korean counterpart, Yoon Sang-jick, on March 23 signed a free trade agreement in Seoul after five years of negotiations. Prime Minister John Key and President Park Geun-hye of South Korea witnessed the signing. The agreement will see the high tariffs that New Zealand exporters of beef, dairy, kiwifruit, and other products face in South Korea eventually lifted. South Kora is New Zealand’s sixth-largest export market.

McCully travels to Iraq to discuss deployment. Foreign Minister Murray McCully traveled to Iraq on March 23 for discussions with Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Ja’afari about legal protections for New Zealand troops deployed to the country. New Zealand plans to deploy 143 military personnel in May to help train Iraqi forces fighting the Islamic State. Iraq and New Zealand have so far failed to sign a status of forces agreement, and New Zealand defense minister Gerry Brownlee has said the troop deployment could be postponed if legal protections are not finalized.

End of EU milk quotas to add pressure on New Zealand dairy farmers. The European Union’s three-decade-old quota on milk production ended on March 31, freeing EU dairy farmers to export more milk abroad and compete more directly with New Zealand exporters. The GlobalDairyTrade Price Index established by New Zealand’s Fonterra fell 10.8 percent between March 17 and April 1, while the price for whole milk powder fell 13.3 percent. Fonterra in March said it expected to pay New Zealand farmers about $7.70 per pound of milk solids, its lowest price in six years.

Pacific Islands

Federated States of Micronesia hit hard by Typhoon Maysak. Typhoon Maysak tore through Chuuk and Yap states in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) from March 27 to April 1 as a category five storm. The storm killed at least 5 people, displaced about 7,000, and devastated homes, crops, and water supplies. The Red Cross and U.S. Agency for International Development have begun to conduct assessments and deliver supplies, but some islands remain inaccessible. FSM president Manny Mori has requested assistance from the United Nations and from the United States under the two countries’ Compact of Free Association.

Cyclone Pam devastates Vanuatu. Cyclone Pam hit Vanuatu on March 13, leaving 11 people confirmed dead, about 75,000 in need of emergency shelter, and 96 percent of crops destroyed. The category five storm, which also caused extensive damage in Kiribati, the Solomon Islands, and Tuvalu, was one of the largest and most intense ever seen in the region. The Vanuatu government has extended a state of emergency through mid-April as it directs emergency aid from Australia, China, the European Union, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the United States, and the United Nations to hard-hit outlying communities.

ADB predicts positive growth for Pacific Islands in 2015. The Asian Development Bank expects most Pacific Island economies to experience strong economic growth in 2015, according to its annual Asian Development Outlook released on March 24. The report predicts Papua New Guinea’s economy will expand 15 percent, Fiji will see its fifth consecutive year of growth on the back of new foreign investment, and the Solomon Islands will return to positive growth after severe flooding in 2014. The Cook Islands, Samoa, and Tonga will also see increased growth. Vanuatu’s economy is expected to be the region’s worst performer due to the devastation caused by Cyclone Pam in March.

Fiji will not rejoin PIF unless Australia, New Zealand leave. Fijian prime minister Frank Bainimarama said April 8 that he will not attend the September 2015 Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) unless Australia and New Zealand agree to give up their membership and become observers, or development partners, like other donor nations. New Zealand foreign minister Murray McCulley responded that New Zealand will not leave the forum. Fiji was suspended from the PIF in 2009 and invited to rejoin following elections in 2014.

ILO defers inquiry into Fiji’s labor practices. The International Labor Organization (ILO) on March 26 announced that it would defer until November a decision on establishing a commission of inquiry into whether Fiji’s government is in violation of ILO Convention 87, which protects workers’ rights to organize. The ILO decided to defer a decision after Fiji’s minister for employment and the heads of the national Commerce and Employer’s Federation and Trade Union Congress signed an agreement on labor management relations.

New Caledonia chooses new president after months-long stalemate. New Caledonia’s 11-member government on April 2 elected Philippe Germain of the anti-independence Caledonia Together Party as president, ending a stalemate that had lasted since the collapse of a three-party anti-independence coalition government in December. The pro-independence parties threw their support behind Germain over the other anti-independence candidate, caretaker president Cynthia Legeard. The government elected Jean-Louis d’Angleberme of the pro-independence Caledonian Union as vice president.

Former French Polynesian president faces jail. Prosecutors in the case against former French Polynesian president Gaston Flosse have asked for a two-year jail sentence for espionage and abusing public funds, according to a March 27 Radio New Zealand report. The court is expected to deliver a verdict in June. The case deals with Flosse’s use of French Polynesia’s intelligence service when serving as prime minister from 1981 to 2014. Flosse served three more times as prime minister, most recently from May 2013 until his ouster in September 2014 after being convicted of corruption.

Government expected to retain power after Tuvalu elections. Tuvalu’s citizens returned 12 of the 15 incumbent members of Parliament to power in the March 31 national elections. Nine members of caretaker prime minister Enele Sopoaga’s government were returned to power—including Sopoaga, who was elected unopposed—indicating he will again be able to form a government. The election saw the third-ever woman elected to Tuvalu’s Parliament.

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Looking Ahead

Financing Growth in the Asia Pacific. The CSIS Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies will host a conference on April 10 entitled “Financing Growth in the Asia Pacific.” The all-day conference will include several keynote speeches and expert panel discussions on the “Impact of China’s and Japan’s Economic Slowdown on Asia’s Emerging Economies,” “Infrastructure Connectivity: Where Are Asia’s Big Gaps,” and “Financial Reforms: Opportunities and Risks.” The event will take place from 9:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. in the CSIS Second Floor Conference Center. To RSVP, click here or e-mail the Sumitro Chair.

The Real Geopolitics: The Future Belongs to the Tropics. The Embassy of Australia will host a lecture and discussion on April 21 on issues affecting the tropics as revealed in the recently launched State of the Tropics report by 12 research institutions. Sandra Harding of James Cook University—one of those 12 institutions—will offer her thoughts. The event will take place at 6:30 p.m. at the Embassy of Australia, 1601 Massachusetts Ave., NW, and will be followed by a reception. Click here to RSVP.

A Centenary of Australian War Art. The Embassy of Australia is hosting an exhibition through June 1 of 41 pieces of art from the Australian War Memorial. The artwork is being displayed in honor of the hundredth anniversary of the establishment of the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps during the First World War, and includes pieces depicting both World Wars, Korea, Vietnam, and conflicts in the Middle East. The exhibition can be seen on weekdays from 10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. at the Embassy of Australia gallery, 1601 Massachusetts Ave., NW.

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For more from the Pacific Partners Initiative, check out our website, follow us on Facebook and Twitter, visit our blog CogitAsia, and listen to our podcast at CogitAsia and iTunes. Thank you for your interest in U.S. policy in the Pacific and the CSIS Pacific Partners Intiative. Join the conversation!

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Gregory B. Poling
Senior Fellow and Director, Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative