Political Turmoil in Japan

Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama and Ichiro Ozawa, the secretary general of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), resigned today just nine months after ousting the once dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) from power in a landslide election victory last summer. Japan has now had four prime ministers in less than four years, and the DPJ will scramble to pick a new leader a few weeks before another parliamentary election in July. The upcoming poll was once considered a second seal of approval for DPJ rule but could now further complicate domestic politics amid public anxiety about the economy and the country’s future.

Q1: Why did Hatoyama resign?

A1: Hatoyama and Ozawa were tainted by political funding scandals, and their resignations are explained in part by a desire to improve the DPJ’s image ahead of an upper house election next month, which is ironic given that Ozawa was the architect of last summer’s landslide victory in the lower house. Hatoyama’s downfall can best be attributed to indecisiveness, a prime example being his failure until last week to articulate a position on a bilateral agreement with the United States to relocate a controversial marine base on the island of Okinawa. (He ultimately reneged on a campaign pledge to remove the base from the island, infuriating residents of Okinawa and further damaging his standing overall.) Hatoyama also did not control policy debates within his cabinet and allowed disputes to filter repeatedly into the public domain, casting doubts about his leadership. Public opinion polls released last weekend yielded an average approval rating of 20 percent (the lowest figure was 17 percent), a remarkable slide from his starting point of 70 percent last fall. Frustration within the DPJ had been mounting for some time, and the latest numbers appeared to be the last straw.

Q2: What happens now?

A2: DPJ lawmakers will convene on June 4 to select a new leader who is expected to form a cabinet the same day. The front-runner appears to be Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Naoto Kan, a veteran lawmaker who has featured prominently in the economic policy debate by emphasizing the need to fight deflation and reduce the debt burden. Other possible contenders include Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada, who finished second behind Hatoyama last summer; Transport Minister Seiji Maehara; Internal Affairs Minister Kazuhiro Haraguchi; and Minister for National Policy Yoshito Sengoku. Only Kan had declared his candidacy as of this writing.

Q3: How important is the upper house election? Could the DPJ lose power?

A3: Last summer the DPJ secured a majority in the more powerful lower house of the Diet (parliament), which selects the prime minister, and the upper house election therefore does not necessitate a change in government. But Hatoyama’s poor performance introduces an element of uncertainty that could complicate the DPJ’s efforts to solidify control of the Diet. The DPJ had hoped to sustain momentum and establish a solid majority in the upper house poll to prevent gridlock and implement its legislative agenda without delay. However, recent polling suggests the DPJ has lost its lead over the LDP, and an increasing number of voters do not favor either party. This creates space for new small parties established by former LDP members that could become increasingly influential if the DPJ fares poorly and cannot secure a majority without forming a governing coalition. (Hatoyama formed a coalition with two other small parties, the People’s New Party and the Social Democratic Party, to secure the upper house majority, but the Social Democrats recently bolted the coalition to protest Hatoyama’s decision on the Okinawa base issue, and another run with the People’s New Party is unlikely.) The DPJ could squeak by but the upper house election could prove significant in determining the extent to which the DPJ can remain wedded to the policy prescriptions it advertised last year.

Q4: What does Hatoyama’s resignation say about the state of Japanese domestic politics?

A4: Some observers interpreted the DPJ victory last summer as the dawn of a new era of political leadership after decades of nearly uninterrupted rule by the LDP. Today’s developments render such pronouncements premature. The current situation is more likely a prelude to a new era, a messy process of political realignment featuring successive coalition governments as a new generation attempts to coalesce around a set of core principles that can underpin a sustainable majority. Hatoyama campaigned on a platform of “change,” but when one considers the instability that has plagued Japanese domestic politics in recent years, thus far it appears the more things change the more they stay the same.

Nicholas Szechenyi is deputy director and fellow with the Office of the Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

Critical Questions is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

© 2010 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.