Thailand in Crisis

Thailand is in the midst of a period of political upheaval that started with massive antigovernment protests in November 2013 and took a menacing turn with a military coup in May 2014. But this is just the latest incident in a cycle of instability that has gripped the nation for a decade or more—a cycle that the military coup will not resolve. The real watershed will come with the country’s royal succession, when forces elite and mass-based, civilian and military, will jostle for primacy as the country enters a new era, without long-reigning King Bhumibol Adulyadej at the helm. Just weeks before the recent coup, CSIS undertook a study to determine the likely scenarios that could play out during this seminal moment, which could come anytime in the coming years.