TWQ: Preparing for the Worst: Democrats’ Fears of the 2010 Midterm Elections - Spring 2010

Midterm  elections are almost inevitably a referendum on the party in power. When the same party occupies both the White House and control of Congress, things are pretty straightforward. One party has all the responsibility and takes the credit or blame (usually the latter) for whatever occurs. Another way of putting it is that midterm elections are  binary, everything is either a “1” or a “0”—one side goes down, so the other side goes up.

It is perfectly normal for the party of a newly elected president to lose House seats in his first midterm election. In fact, it has happened  in seven of the eight midterm elections during the first terms of a president in the post—World War II era, resulting in an average loss of 16 seats. The sole exception was George W. Bush, after the September 11,  2001 tragedy altered the trajectory of the otherwise predictable pattern. In the Senate, which has six-year terms, the pattern is less clear. The president’s party has lost seats in four elections, gained in  four, and the average is a loss of four-tenths of one seat, basically a  wash.

So, if midterm election losses are normal, what makes the 2010 elections  different? Why is the prediction of losses for Democrats so much greater than usual?