The Upcoming Election in Japan

Q1: A general election has reportedly been scheduled for August 30. Why is this significant?

A1: This election is for control of the lower house of the Diet (parliament) and could end a period of parliamentary gridlock in Japan. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) controls the lower house but has produced three prime ministers since 2006 when the popular Junichiro Koizumi left office after a five-year term. The current leader, Taro Aso, has an average approval rating of 20 percent and has faced relentless pressure from the opposition, led by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). The DPJ captured the upper house back in 2007 and would like to dethrone the LDP and seize control of the legislative agenda with a resounding victory on August 30. The LDP could be removed from power for just the second time since 1955. 

Q2: What are the key issues?

A2: The focus is almost exclusively on the economy. Prime Minister Aso has passed three stimulus packages, the latest totaling approximately $150 billion, or 3 percent of GDP, to pull the country out of recession, but the public hasn’t warmed to his agenda. The DPJ has criticized the LDP for wasteful pork barrel spending and touts an alternative stimulus package, worth about 4 percent of GDP, centered more on payments to households in an attempt to increase consumption. Taxes should also feature prominently as Japan currently has a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 150 percent, and both parties will be under pressure to explain how they intend to pay for their policy prescriptions. With respect to foreign policy, the DPJ accuses the LDP of kowtowing to the United States and speaks rhetorically of an “equal alliance” to suggest a more defiant stance on bilateral issues such as host nation support for U.S. forces while also emphasizing Japan-China relations and Japan’s position in Asia overall.

Q3: What are the current projections?

A3: Most polls show a comfortable lead for the DPJ. The party leader, Yukio Hatoyama, was recently embarrassed by a political funding scandal but thus far has come away unscathed. The key number to watch is the margin of victory. A landslide victory for the DPJ would result in total control of the legislative agenda. A narrower win would require the DPJ to form a coalition government. The least likely scenario involves a victory by the LDP, which would almost certainly fall short of the two-thirds majority it currently enjoys (and depends on to override vetoes of legislation in the upper house) and necessitate an even larger, and presumably weaker, coalition government.

Q4: Will the election bring stability to Japanese politics? 

A4: Possibly. Hatoyama, who could succeed Aso as prime minister, leads a party that is internally divided on policy and has never been in power, complicating his efforts to articulate a coherent policy agenda for a public seeking strong leadership. Hatoyama could usher in a new era of DPJ reign but just as easily preside over another short-term government that would extend a period of political paralysis. Either way, the voters will have another chance to weigh in during the next upper house election in summer 2010.

Nicholas Szechenyi is deputy director and fellow with the Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

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