Was Tom Shannon Ambushed?

Last weekend, a picture surfaced of Thomas Shannon, counselor to the U.S. secretary of state, meeting with Diosdado Cabello, president of Venezuela’s National Assembly and the country’s number two political figure. The two, joined by Haitian president Michel Martelly and Venezuelan foreign minister Delcy Rodriguez, appear amicable: their arms around each other, all four sporting broad smiles.

But something’s not quite right, here. Just last month, the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. federal authorities were investigating several high-ranking Venezuelan officials—including Diosdado Cabello—for their roles in turning Venezuela into a narco-trafficking hub. And that revelation follows months of tension: earlier this year, Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro accused Washington of planning a coup to overthrow his administration and later ordered the United States to cut its embassy staff in Caracas. The White House labeled Venezuela a threat to the national security of the United States and announced sanctions against seven Venezuelan officials accused of committing human rights abuses.

So how did Shannon end up in a room with Cabello—let alone smiling together for photos?

The photos have sparked wild speculation: that the meeting was part of a larger strategy in pushing for political change in Venezuela. That the photos were a bargaining chip in exchange for upcoming movement on the Venezuelan side. That Shannon was ambushed, pure and simple.

Regardless, confusion is rampant. Whatever the rationale behind the photos, one thing is clear: the encounter is inconsistent with the recent trajectory of U.S. policy toward Venezuela.

In simplest terms, that policy has two short-run objectives in dealing with Venezuela: ensuring the presence of Organization of American States (OAS) and European Union observers in Venezuela’s upcoming parliamentary elections; and liberating political prisoners held in Venezuelan prisons.

The parliamentary elections are planned for some time this coming December (though the date is not yet set). The White House believes that by convincing President Maduro’s government to agree to host election observers from the OAS and the European Union, we might ensure reforms to end Venezuela’s economic and political crisis. And, through trustworthy electoral outcomes, theoretically political tensions running high in Venezuela might begin to ebb.

Political prisoners are a key piece of this puzzle, too. The public faces of that movement are opposition mayors Leopoldo Lopez and Antonio Ledezma, imprisoned since February 2014 and February 2015, respectively. Securing their freedom (and those of other political prisoners) is part and parcel of Washington’s hope to stabilize Venezuela’s situation.

And in pursuit of these policies, Shannon has visited Venezuela, meeting with President Maduro twice in recent months—largely to ease tensions after the national security threat designation.

So, how do these photos fit into the broader context? Did Cabello ambush Shannon, or was this planned? Haiti has long received aid from both Venezuela and the United States—but would Martelly risk his good favor by helping plan an ambush? And if it were an ambush, why would Shannon agree to appear in the pictures—and smiling?

It’s not clear if the State Department had advance notice of Cabello attending this meeting. Afterward, the department announced that Shannon and Cabello met to hammer out the future of the bilateral relationship—but Shannon himself has yet to make a statement. It’s been reported that in the days since the meeting, President Maduro promoted Cabello to be head of Venezuela’s normalization efforts with the United States, but on Saturday, he wasn’t yet in that role. At this point, it’s unclear if Cabello was already lined up for his new role, or if his promotion is another way for the Maduro administration to laugh at Shannon’s mistake. Because in any case, for Shannon to meet with anyone other than the foreign minister—particularly a suspected drug kingpin—is out of turn.

Even if the meeting was planned, news has yet to surface that the two countries are any closer to compromise on their many troubles than they were before this weekend. And if news doesn’t break soon, U.S. credibility in its policy toward Venezuela could take a serious hit.

So whatever the case, the meeting sends a confusing message. Unless the Obama administration can show—and show fast—that we’ve gained something from the meeting, then, by all accounts, Maduro’s administration has won this round. Meeting with our most senior and widely respected Latin America hand so amicably helps Cabello to launder his own image, making him appear to be an upstanding government official despite the mounting evidence to the contrary.

Carl Meacham is director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

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